MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Markets Wary of Corrective Bund Rally

Price Signal Summary – Markets Wary of Corrective Bund Rally

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded higher Wednesday. Price has recently cleared 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 4943.00, the Jun 11 low.
• The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish, with Wednesday’s gains reinforcing the upside argument. However, the pair has pulled back from this week’s high. Attention is on key short-term support at 1.2669, the 50-day EMA. The trend signal in USDJPY remains bullish and today’s climb reinforces this condition. An important short-term resistance at 157.71, the May 29 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the S/T bull cycle and price has pierced 158.21, 76.4% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. Recent swings in AUDUSD mean that for now, the pair remains inside a range. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6714, the May 16 high and key support lies at 0.6576, the Jun 10.
• Gold is trading closer to its recent lows. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforces a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has traded below the 50-day EMA, at 2313.7. The break confirms a resumption of the reversal that started May 20 and signals scope for a deeper correction. WTI futures have traded higher this week. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains bearish. However, resistance at $78.38, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced.
• Recent gains in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, still appear to be a correction. However, we would need to see a clear resumption of weakness to refocus attention on 129.37, the May 31 low and bear trigger. Wednesday’s strong rally in Gilt futures, resulted in a break of resistance 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 3: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0852/70 High Jun 12 / 76.4% of the Jun 4 - 11 sell-off
• PRICE: 1.0725 @ 08:10 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.0716 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0675 76.4% retracement of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 4: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support

EURUSD has not managed to hold on to Wednesday’s rally and yesterday’s sell-off has reversed those gains. This has exposed support at 1.0720, the Jun 11 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would reinstate a recent bearish theme and pave the way for an extension towards 1.0675, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0852, Wednesday’s high. Clearance of this level would be bullish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.2947 5.0% proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2860 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.2751 @ 06:20 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.2727/2669 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish, with Wednesday’s gains reinforcing the upside argument. However, the pair has pulled back from this week’s high. Attention is on key short-term support at 1.2669, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper correction. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, the Jun 12 high, resumes the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Clear Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8565 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 31
• RES 2: 0.8529 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8458/8496 High Jun 13 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8421 @ 06:46 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 0.8413 Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing

A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces this condition. The cross is trading at the week’s low. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a clear downtrend. Sights are on 0.8366 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8496, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

USDJPY TECHS: USDJPY Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 159.63 1.236 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 158.48 1.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 158.26 Intraday high
• PRICE:158.17 @ 08:36 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 156.42 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 155.15 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 154.77/55 Trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low / Low Jun 4
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend signal in USDJPY remains bullish and today’s climb reinforces this condition. An important short-term resistance at 157.71, the May 29 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the S/T bull cycle and price has pierced 158.21, 76.4% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. A clear break of this price point would strengthen current conditions and open 160.17, the Apr 29 high and key resistance. Initial support is at 156.42, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 172.88 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.89 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 169.70 @ 07:21 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 168.09 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 167.92 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 167.33/165.64 Low May 16 / 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support

The EURJPY trend structure remains bullish and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would open 171.56, the Apr 29 high and the key resistance, where a break would confirm a continuation of the uptrend. Support to watch is 167.92, a key trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear breach of this line would highlight a potential reversal and confirm a break of the 50-day EMA, at 167.63.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Inside A Range

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6621 @ 07:57 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg

Recent swings in AUDUSD mean that for now, the pair remains inside a range. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6714, the May 16 high and key support lies at 0.6576, the Jun 10. These two price points represent key short-term directional triggers. Clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a move below 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3792 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3746 @ 08:00 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.3667/1.3590 50-day EMA / Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD has managed to recover from Wednesday’s intraday low of 1.3680. Key support is unchanged at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For now, the trend outlook remains bullish, a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Trades Through Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 133.42 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 133.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 132.83 High May 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 132.48 Intraday high
• PRICE: 132.17 @ 08:06 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 130.86 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 130.21 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

Recent gains in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, still appear to be a correction. However, we would need to see a clear resumption of weakness to refocus attention on 129.37, the May 31 low and bear trigger. Note, yesterday’s gains did result in a print above 131.58, the Jun 5 high and price is trading above the 50-day EMA. The contract is firmer again today and this does suggest potential for a stronger corrective bounce and possibly even a short-term reversal. The next key resistance to watch is 132.83, May 16 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Pierces Resistance

• RES 4: 117.120 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 116.960 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 116.830 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 1116.810 Intraday high
• PRICE: 116.590 @ 08:10 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 116.160/115.846 High Jun 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.560 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 115.000 Round number support

A primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and gains since May 31, appear to be a correction, despite this week’s strong recovery. Note, that resistance at 116.160, Jun 4 high, has been cleared. This does warn of a stronger bullish theme and has exposed resistance at 116.750, the May 16 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. Initial firm support is at 115.846, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 105.958 236proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 105.875 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 105.800 Intraday high
• PRICE: 105.745 @ 08:15 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 105.394 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.310 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective, despite this week’s strong recovery. Note that the contract has traded through resistance at 105.460, the Jun 4 high. This does strengthen a short-term bullish condition and has exposed resistance at 105.715, the May 15 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would further strengthen the bull cycle. Initial support is 105.394, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Key Short-Term Resistance Has Been Cleared

• RES 4: 99.25 1.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 98.89 High May 16 a key resistance
• RES 2: 98.65 1.00 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 98.43 Intraday high
• PRICE: 98.34 @ 08:22 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 97.12/96.12 20-day EMA / Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: 95.58 Low May 31
• SUP 3: 95.33 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

Wednesday’s strong rally in Gilt futures, resulted in a break of resistance 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 98.89, the May 16 high and a key resistance. Initial support lies at 97.20, the 20-day EMA. Key support is at 96.12, the Jun 10 low.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 116.56/69 20-day EMA / High Jun 12
• PRICE: 116.38 @ Close Jun 13
• SUP 1: 115.28/114.35 Low Jun 12 / 11
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures have traded in a volatile manner this week. The latest reversal lower confirms the end of the corrective phase between May 29 - Jun 5. This resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, the Apr 25 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and opens 114.09 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance has been defined at 117.62, Jun 5 high. First resistance is 116.56, the 20-day EMA. For now, gains are considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Breaches Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 5046.00/5088.00 High Jun 12 / 6
• PRICE: 4952.00 @ 06:35 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 4894.90 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 4862.00 Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: 4844.10 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 4943.00, the Jun 11 low. This highlights potential for a deeper short-term retracement and sights are on 4894.90, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 5046.00, the Jun 12 high. A break of this hurdle would signal a resumption of the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 5500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 5490.62 2.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5462.77 2.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5454.50 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 5442.25 @ 06:59 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 5333.75/5261.09 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5205.50 Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 3: 5155.75 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5099.25 Low May 3

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded higher Wednesday. Price has recently cleared 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The continuation higher has resulted in a break of the 5400.00 handle. This opens 5462.77 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 5205.50, the May 31 low. Initial support lies at 5333.75, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $84.72/87.77 - High May 29 / High Apr 26
• RES 1: $82.51/83.34 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $82.31 @ 07:04 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $79.32/76.76 - Low Jun 7 / 4
• SUP 2: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: $71.20 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

Brent futures have recovered from their recent lows. The trend condition is bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Initial resistance at $82.51, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key short-term resistance at $84.72, the May 29 high. Clearance of this level would alter the picture. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on a move to $75.63, Feb 5 low.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $79.32/80.62 - High Jun 12 / High May 1 and key resistance
• PRICE: $78.12 @ 07:07 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $75.23/72.48 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 2: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $66.79 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

WTI futures have traded higher this week. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains bearish. However, resistance at $78.38, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would expose the key short-term resistance at $80.62, the May 1 high, where a break is required to cancel a bear theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would open $71.33, the Feb 5 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2335.4/2387.8 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 7
• PRICE: $2311.5 @ 07:55 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold is trading closer to its recent lows. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforces a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has traded below the 50-day EMA, at 2313.7. The break confirms a resumption of the reversal that started May 20 and signals scope for a deeper correction. This has opened $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.

SILVER TECHS: Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $29.016 @ 08:05 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $28.786/659 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver traded lower Jun 7 and cleared support at $29.381, the Jun 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper short-term retracement. Note that the current corrective cycle is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $28.786. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $32.518, the May 20 high.