MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Monday Rally Reinforces Bullish GBP Conditions

Price Signal Summary – Monday Rally Reinforces Bullish GBP Conditions

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. A strong rally on Nov 14 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher.
• The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and Monday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The extension maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price has breached 1.2589, 50.0% of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. USDJPY has traded lower this week, however the pair remains above last week’s low for now. The bullish price pattern on Nov 21 - a dragonfly doji candle - continues to signal a potential reversal. AUDUSD has traded higher again today, however, resistance has capped gains at 0.6632 for now. The trend needle continues to point north. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce this set-up. The yellow metal has started this week on a bullish note and traded through resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Attention is on support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late September and maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and yesterday’s gains are a positive development, signalling the end of the recent corrective pullback. Sights are on resistance at 131.74, the Nov 17 high and bull trigger. Gilt futures traded lower last week. The pullback is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle remains in play. Key short-term support is currently seen at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The recovery from this level is a positive development and a continuation higher would open 98.05.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 1.0965 High Nov 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0951 @ 05:51 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.0825/0756 Low Nov 17 / High Nov 5, recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0742 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and sights are on the recent 1.0965 high (Nov 21). Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The next objectives are 1.1005, Aug 11 high and 1.1065, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance. Note that the trend condition remains overbought, a corrective pullback would unwind this condition. Initial support to watch is 1.0825, the Nov 17 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heads North

• RES 4: 1.2759 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2746 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 1.2720 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2644 High Nov 27
• PRICE: 1.2626 @ 06:05 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.2506/2419 High Nov 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2370 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and Monday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The extension maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price has breached 1.2589, 50.0% of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. This opens 1.2720, the 61.8% retracement level and 1.2759, a vol band resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch has been defined at 1.2419, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains In A Short-Term Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8725/68 High Nov 22 / 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8669 @ 06:36 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 0.8658 Low Nov 27
• SUP 2: 0.8650 Low Nov 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support

EURGBP traded lower again Monday and the cross remains in a short-term downtrend. Price has breached support at the 50-day EMA and is through the 200-dma. The move lower signals scope for a deeper retracement with sights on 0.8650, the Nov 6 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 0.8768, the Nov 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 1: 149.79 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 148.29 @ 06:47 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 147.15 Low Nov 21 and a key support
• SUP 2: 146.48 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY has traded lower this week, however the pair remains above last week’s low for now. The bullish price pattern on Nov 21 - a dragonfly doji candle - continues to signal a potential reversal. If correct, it suggests scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high. For bears, clearance of 147.15, the Nov 21 low, would cancel the reversal pattern and instead open 146.48, trendline support drawn from Mar 24.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 166.97 1.50 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 1: 164.30 High Nov 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 162.45 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 161.96/25 20-day EMA / Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 160.21 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.07 Low Nov 1 / 2
• SUP 4: 157.70 Low Oct 30

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The cross has recently tested support at the 20-day EMA - at 161.96 today. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at 160.21. On the upside, a clearance of 164.30, the Nov 16 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 164.77, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.6739 High Jul 31
• RES 3: 0.6713/6723 3.0% 10-dma envelope / High Aug 1
• RES 2: 0.6656 61.8% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6632 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6608 @ 07:55 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 0.6491 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6453/6339 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 nand the bear trigger

AUDUSD has traded higher again today, however, resistance has capped gains at 0.6632 for now. The trend needle continues to point north. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. This breach reinforced the bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term towards 0.6656 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is at 0.6453, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 1.3965 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 1.3596 @ 08:03 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.3594 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 1.3569/55 Low Oct 10 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD maintains a softer tone. Last week’s bearish extension resulted in the break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low. The weekly close below the trendline reinforces a bearish threat. This has opened 1.3569, the Oct 10 low, and a break of this level would open 1.3496, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key resistance remains at 1.3777, the Nov 16 high. A breach of this hurdle would be a bullish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.13 1.382 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 131.74 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 131.28@ 05:25 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 130.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.31/127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 4: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and yesterday’s gains are a positive development, signalling the end of the recent corrective pullback. Sights are on resistance at 131.74, the Nov 17 high and bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 132.13, a 1.382 projection of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 / 13 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 117.751 1.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.369 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 117.040/230 High Nov 22 / 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.880 @ 05:19 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 116.380/000 50-day EMA / Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the recent pullback appears - for now - to be a correction. Yesterday’s gains are a positive development. The contract has recently pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 116.380. A clear break of the average would undermine bullish conditions and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards support at 116.000. The bull trigger is at 117.230, the Nov 17 high. A breach of this level resumes the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Strong Reversal

• RES 4: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 3: 105.335 High Nov 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 105.265 High Nov 17
• RES 1: 105.145 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 105.110 @ 05:43 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 104.915 Low NOv 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures reversed course Monday and the cross recovered sharply from the session low. This is a positive development and weakens a bearish threat that followed the breach of support at 104.925, the Nov 14 low. A continuation higher would open 105.265, the Nov 17 high. On the downside, key support is at yesterday’s low of 104.915, a break of this level would be a bearish development.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Remains Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 97.93 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 97.39 76.4% proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 2: 96.98 61.8% retracement of the Nov 17 - 24 downleg
• RES 1: 96.66 Intraday high
• PRICE: 96.36 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 95.25 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 94.56 2.764 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower last week. The pullback is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle remains in play. Key short-term support is currently seen at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The recovery from this level is a positive development and a continuation higher would open 98.05, the Nov 17 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 95.25 would instead strengthen a bearish threat and expose 94.74, a Fibonacci projection.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 1: 114.89 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 114.42 @ Close Nov 27
• SUP 1: 112.88/112.06 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110.81 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction with yesterday’s rally being a positive development. The recent break of resistance at 113.00, the Nov 9 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 115.56, the Aug 24 high and the next key resistance. Key short-term support is seen at 112.06, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4500.00 High 1
• RES 3: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 4407.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 4388.00 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 4362.00 @ 06:37 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 4283.10 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4242.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10
• SUP 4: 4143.00 Low Nov 8

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher. The recent breach of resistance at 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, reinforced the bullish theme. The focus is on 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4283.10, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4580.50 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 4563.25 @ 06:47 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 4501.75/4464.13 Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4419.54 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 4257.75 Low Nov 3

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. A strong rally on Nov 14 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4464.13, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4:$93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 2: $87.80 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $83.97 - High Nov 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $80.13 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $76.60 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.82 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.68 - Low Jun 23

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend and price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The focus is on $75.51 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish threat. The bear trigger is $76.60, the Nov 8 low. Key short-term resistance is at $83.97, the Nov 14 high.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $79.99 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $77.94 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $75.04 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Attention is on support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late September and maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Key resistance is unchanged at $79.65, the Nov 14 high.

GOLD TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2018.2 - High Nov 27
• PRICE: $2016.1 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $1977.8/1954.7 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce this set-up. The yellow metal has started this week on a bullish note and traded through resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $2022.2, the May 15 high. Key support has been defined at $1931.7, the Nov 13 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial support lies at $1977.8, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 3: $25.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $24.876 - Monday’s high
• PRICE: $24.630 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $23.129 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.883/573 - Low Nov 13 and a key support / Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the metal traded higher yesterday, starting the week on a bullish note. The break higher maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies have crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position. The focus is on $25.014, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support lies at $23.129, the 50-day EMA.