MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Monday Sell-Off Reinforces Bearish WTI Theme

Price Signal Summary – Monday Sell-Off Reinforces Bearish WTI Theme

• The recent move lower in S&P E-Minis appears to have been a correction. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4750.67 has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and expose 4695.69, the lower band of a MA envelope. The primary trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support to watch lies at 4441.90, the 50-day EMA.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its most recent gains. Attention is on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement point. The move lower in USDJPY from last Friday’s high means that resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 145.28 - remains intact for now. Trend signals remain bearish and the recent impulsive rally appears to be a correction. AUDUSD is consolidating and trading closer to its recent lows. The recent move lower is considered corrective and the medium-term trend direction remains up. Moving average studies highlight an uptrend and trendline support drawn from the late October low remains intact.
• Gold traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. The next support to watch is $2012.0, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level, if seen, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of $2088.5 would reinstate the bull cycle. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Monday’s sell-off reinforces the bear theme. Resistance to watch is $74.85, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme.
• Bund futures maintain a softer short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper correction, which would open 134.50 ahead of the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Gilt futures maintain a softer tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, suggesting scope for a continuation of the bear cycle near-term.

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0951 @ 05:35 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: 1.0893/77 Trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low / Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD is unchanged and is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent pullback is considered corrective, with prices remaining above the trendline - at 1.0893 today - drawn off the Nov 1 low. MA studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Furthermore, a recent golden cross in the DMA space (50- rising above the 200-dma), is a bullish signal. Support to watch is 1.0877, Friday’s low. The bull trigger is 1.1139, the Dec 28 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2739 @ 05:42 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: 1.2611/2587 Low Jan 03 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its most recent gains. Attention is on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 1.2611, Jan 2 low. The 50-day EMA lies just below at 1.2587. A break of this support zone would highlight a short-term top.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8625/47 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8594 @ 05:52 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: 0.8587 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

EURGBP maintains a short-term bearish tone and the cross traded lower Monday, starting the week on a softer note. The recent break of the 50-day EMA reinforces a bearish theme and a continuation lower would open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8647, is the initial firm resistance.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 3: 146.59 High Dec 11
• RES 2: 145.97 High Jan 05 and short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 145.28 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 143.83 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: 142.86 Low Jan 4
• SUP 2: 141.86 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 139.11 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

The move lower in USDJPY from last Friday’s high means that resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 145.28 - remains intact for now. Trend signals remain bearish and the recent impulsive rally appears to be a correction. A continuation lower would refocus attention on 140.25, the Dec 28 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 145.97, Friday’s high. A break of this level would be a bullish development.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 3: 160.07 61.8% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 2: 159.34 50 DMA
• RES 1: 159.00 High Jan 05
• PRICE: 157.64 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: 157.23 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support

EURJPY last week pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA of 158.19 as well as the Dec 19 high of 158.57. The cross has since pulled back, however, a clear break of these two levels would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a continuation higher. This would open 159.34, the 50-dma and 160.07, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a stronger reversal would instead expose support at 155.08, the Jan 2 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Move Lower Is Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• PRICE: 0.6709 @ 06:42 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: 0.6641 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 0.6602 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 26 low
• SUP 3: 0.6571 50.0% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support

AUDUSD is consolidating and trading closer to its recent lows. The recent move lower is considered corrective and the medium-term trend direction remains up. Moving average studies highlight an uptrend and trendline support drawn from the late October low remains intact. The trendline lies at 0.6602 today and represents an important support. On the upside key resistance is unchanged at 0.6871, the Dec 28 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3538 50.0% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3481 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.3466 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3405/3418 High Jan 08 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.3360 @ 07:07 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: 1.3229/3177 Low Jan 2 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3019 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase

The broader USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish despite recent gains that appear to be a correction. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3466. This average represents an important resistance and a clear break would highlight a stronger reversal. A move lower would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to 1.3177, the Dec 27 low and bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.24 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.84 @ 05:06 GMT Jan 9
• SUP 1: 135.06 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 134.50 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.42 Low Dec 4

Bund futures maintain a softer short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper correction, which would open 134.50 ahead of the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, highlighting the short-term bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 138.84, the Dec 27 high and a bull trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.675 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 118.460 @ 04:59 GMT Jan 9
• SUP 1: 118.050 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 117.754 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 117.510 Low Dec 4

Bobl futures traded lower last week and a corrective cycle remains in play for now. The move through the 20-day EMA highlights potential for a deeper pullback and this has exposed support at 117.800 ahead of the 50-day EMA at 117.754. Clearance of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, the Dec 27 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Has Breached The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.395 Low Jan 2
• PRICE: 106.170 @ 05:07 GMT Jan 9
• SUP 1: 106.055 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 105.955 Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.730 Low Nov 30

Schatz futures traded lower last Friday before recovering from the session low. The contract has breached support around the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation of the corrective cycle. Further weakness would open the key short-term support of 105.955, the Dec 13 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 106.640, the Dec 29 high.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 103.94 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 100.97 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.45 @ Close Jan 8
• SUP 1: 99.60 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.39 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

Gilt futures maintain a softer tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, suggesting scope for a continuation of the bear cycle near-term. This has exposed support at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Corrective Cycle Exposes Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.77 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 118.17 @ Close Jan 8
• SUP 1: 117.24 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 115.84 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

BTP futures traded lower last Friday before recovering. The recent move down is considered corrective. However, price has traded through support around the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA and a key support, at 115.93. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.77, the Jan 4 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.43, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jab 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4521.00 @ 05:40 GMT Jan 9
• SUP 1: 4441.90 50-day EMA and a key support area
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

The primary trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support to watch lies at 4441.90, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 4634.00, the Dec 14 high and bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 47957.50 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4695.69 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 4656.580 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

The recent move lower in S&P E-Minis appears to have been a correction. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4750.67 has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and expose 4695.69, the lower band of a MA envelope. A move through this support would expose the 50-day EMA, at 4656.58. For bulls, a continuation higher would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $79.41/81.45 - High Jan 4 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $76.14 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures traded lower Monday. The contract remains below key short-term resistance at $81.45, the Dec 26 high. The reversal off the late December highs means that price has not remained above the 50-day EMA. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery was a correction. The primary trend direction is down and attention is on $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $74.85/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
• PRICE: $70.81 @ 07:12 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Monday’s sell-off reinforces the bear theme. Resistance to watch is $74.85, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the trend is $67.98, Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2064.0/2088.5 - High Jan 5 / High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2034.1 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: $2012.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. The next support to watch is $2012.0, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level, if seen, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of $2088.5 would reinstate the bull cycle that started on Dec 13. This would open $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat Following Trendline Break

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $23.173 @ 07:56 GMT Jan 09
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver traded lower last week and in the process, breached the trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a continuation lower and open $21.883, the Nov 13 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.