MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - NZD Weakness Pervades

Price Signal Summary – NZD Weakness Pervades

• NZD is acutely weak, with NZD/USD slipping at the fastest rate since March to put the pair in cross proximity to the late July lows of 0.6902, sitting ahead of the key support and bear trigger at 0.6881. GBP/NZD has also narrowed in on some key levels, with the psychological 2.00 handle in view as well as the bull trigger at 2.0069 (late July high). If topped, the cross would trade at the highest levels since August 2020, with 2.0272 the next upside level.
• On the commodity front, Silver remains bearish. The confirmation of a death cross in the DMA space recently highlights the current bearish theme and note too that recent price action since Aug 9, has taken on the appearance of a bear flag. Gold is holding onto recent gains and is trading higher today. The yellow metal is through the 20-day EMA and sights are set on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1798.7. A breach of this average would strengthen a bullish chase and suggest scope for gains towards the key resistance at $1834.1, the Jul 15 high.
• S&P E-minis outlook is bullish and short-term dips are considered corrective. Recent gains have again confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for further strength as the contract maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EUROSTOXX 50 touched a new cycle high of 4238.50 Aug 13 extending the winning streak to nine consecutive sessions of higher highs and follows the break above previous resistance at 4153.00, Jun 17 high.
• Bund futures traded remain inside its range and maintain a consolidative theme. The underlying trend remains up with moving average studies still in a bull mode. Momentum studies have been in overbought territory recently however this does not appear to be a concern for bulls at this stage of the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: 20-Day EMA Provides Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1920 38.2% of the May 25 - Aug 11 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1909 High Jul 30
• RES 2: 1.1868 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1800/05 20-day EMA / High Aug 13
• PRICE: 1.1768 @ 05:37 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 1.1706 Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.1695 38.2% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 Rally
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD recovered Friday and closed near session highs but has since pulled back. The recovery means support at the 1.1704 2021 low printed back in March remains intact. The trend condition is bearish though and recent gains are considered corrective. A break of last week's 1.1706 low and 1.1704 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and represent an important technical break. Initial resistance is at 1.1805, the Aug 13 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer S/T Tone

• RES 4: 1.4088 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.3916 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 1.3820 @ 05:49 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 1.3767 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 1.3691 Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3520 Low Jan 18

GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone following the recent pullback from the late July high of 1.3983. Price is also back below the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3881. Further weakness would expose support at 1.3691, Jul 22 low with key support located at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. For bulls, a convincing recovery back above the 50-day EMA would again signal scope for a test and potential breach of key resistance at 1.3983.

EURGBP TECHS: Probes The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8610 High Jul 22
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 23
• RES 2: 0.8558 High Aug 2 and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.8528/50 High Aug 5 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8517 @ 06:14 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 0.8484/50 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8409 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP is correcting higher and the cross is testing the 20-day EMA. An extension higher would open the 50-day EMA at 0.8550. From a trend perspective, the recent print down at 0.8450 marks the lowest level since February last year. This flags scope for losses toward vol band support at 0.8409 and the Feb 27, 2020 low at 0.8430. MA studies are in a bear mode highlighting a bearish theme. Key near-term resistance is 0.8558, Aug 2 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Attention Is On Key Support

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 109.95 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 109.30 @ 06:23 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04
• SUP 2: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 108.47/34 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally / Low May 7
• SUP 4: 108.08 Low Apr 27

USDJPY started the week on a softer note yesterday and attention has turned to the key support at 108.72, Aug 4 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose the 108.47 Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key near-term resistance has been defined at 110.80, Aug 11 high where a break would instead set the scene for a climb towards key resistance at 111.66, the Jul 2 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Under Pressure

• RES 4: 131.86 Jul 6 high
• RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 130.56 High Jul 29
• RES 1: 129.71/130.01 High Aug 16 / High Aug 5
• PRICE: 128.65 @ 06:26 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 128.50/29 Low Aug 16 / Low Mar 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 126.44 Low Feb 9

EURJPY traded sharply lower Monday and showed below support at 128.60, the Jul 20 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend and signal scope for weakness towards 128.29, Mar 24 low. Note too that this would also confirm a clear breach of the 200-dma at 129.01. Potential is also seen for a move to 127.88, 38.2% of the Oct '20 - Jun rally. Initial resistance is at 129.71, Monday's high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.7503 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 0.7461/87 50-day EMA / High Jul 15
• RES 2: 0.7427 High Aug 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.7389 High Aug 11
• PRICE: 0.7310 @ 06:35 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 0.7290 Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7284 Low Nov 24, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7235 1.382 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7222 Low Nov 13, 2020

AUDUSD is trading lower and approaching key short-term support at 0.7290, Jul 21 low. A breach of this bear trigger would confirm a resumption of the current bearish cycle and pave the way for an extension towards 0.7235, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode highlighting the current bearish risk. Key resistance has been defined at 0.7427, Aug 4 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2881 High Jan 28
• RES 3: 1.2807/46 High Jul 19 / 1.236 proj of Jun 1 - 21- 23 swing
• RES 2: 1.2730 High Jul 20
• RES 1: 1.2607 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 1.2588 @ 06:44 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 1.2462 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2422/07 Jul 30 low / 50.0% of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2313 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2253 Low Jun 23

USDCAD traded higher yesterday and attention is on the first area of resistance at the 1.2607 level, Jul 23 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery towards 1.2700 and potentially the key resistance at 1.2807, Jul 19 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode suggesting an uptrend remains intact. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.2422, Jul 30 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 178.37 High Jan 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 178.12 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 177.69 1.764 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 177.61 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 176.78 @ 05:04 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 176.21 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 175.82/24 Low Jul 27 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 174.91 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 174.77/45 High Jul 8 / Low Jul 15

Bund futures traded remain inside its range and maintain a consolidative theme. The underlying trend remains up with moving average studies still in a bull mode. Momentum studies have been in overbought territory recently however this does not appear to be a concern for bulls at this stage of the uptrend. Initial support is seen at 176.21, Aug 11 low. The bull trigger is 177.61, Aug 5 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 136.686 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 4: 136.041 61.8% retracement of the March 2020 downtick
• RES 3: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 135.640 High Aug 05
• PRICE: 135.280 @ 04:47 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 135.140/134.900 Low Aug 13 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 134.852/710 50-day EMA / High Jul 8
• SUP 3: 134.570 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support

Bobl futures remain below recent but the pullback hasn't altered the bullish trend and is considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in bull mode and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows continue to dominate. The focus remains on the Dec 11 2020 highs of 135.700 and the 136.041 Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is at 135.140, Aug 13 low. The bull trigger is 135.640, Aug 5 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Probes The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 112.450 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.425 2.618 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.360 HIgh Aug 9
• PRICE: 112.310 @ 05:00 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 112.295/285 Low Aug 13 and 16 / Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 112.268 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 112.210 Low Jul 20

Schatz futures remain below recent highs and are trading closer to recent lows. The contract has traded below the 20-day EMA and further weakness would open the 50-day EMA at 112.268. The broader uptrend remains intact though with moving average studies holding a bullish position and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows still intact. A resumption of strength would open the bull trigger at 112.415, Aug 8 high.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 131.72 38.2% retracement of the Mar'20 - Jun'21 sell-off
• RES 3: 131.37 38.2% retracement of the Aug '20 - Jun sell-off
• RES 2: 130.72 High Aug 3 / 2.236 of the May 13-26-Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 130.61 200-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 129.80 @ Close Aug 16
• SUP 1: 129.22/129.01 Low Aug 6 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.87 Low Jul 1

The Gilt futures uptrend stalled ahead of the 200-dma in recent weeks, managing a high watermark of 130.72 on Aug 4 before fading. The subsequent pullback is considered corrective with key support seen at the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.01. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. The bull trigger is 130.72 with the 200 dma at 130.58 (cont) also marking a key hurdle for bulls.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 156.73 1.236 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 156.48 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 156.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 155.07 @ Close Aug 16
• SUP 1: 154.54 Low Aug 11 152.65 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 153.88 Bull channel base drawn off the May 19 low
• SUP 3: 153.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 151.93 High Jul 8

BTPs continue to trade broadly horizontally. The uptrend remains up though with moving average studies still in a bull mode position. Furthermore, price action remains within a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent high of 155.71 on Aug 5 marks the bull trigger. A break higher would open 156.48, a Bollinger band ceiling. Initial support lies at 154.54, the Aug 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 bear phase
• RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4262.07 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4238.50 High Aug 12
• PRICE: 4196.50 @ 05:33 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and recent key breakout level
• SUP 2: 4083.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4047.50 Low Jul 27
• SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 touched a new cycle high of 4238.50 Aug 13 extending the winning streak to nine consecutive sessions of higher highs and follows the break above previous resistance at 4153.00, Jun 17 high. Price however has since corrected lower. The contract maintains a bullish theme though and attention shifts to the 4262.07 2.0% 10-dma envelope. 4153.00, the recent key breakout level represents initial support.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Bulls Remain In Control

• RES 4: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4481 75.1.00 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4476.50 High Aug 16
• PRICE: 4460.75 @ 07:27 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 4409.45 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4365.25 Low Aug 3
• SUP 3: 4335.01 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis outlook is bullish and short-term dips are considered corrective.
Recent gains have again confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for further strength as the contract maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies continue to point north too, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 4481.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is 4365.25, Aug 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V1) Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: $75.80 - High Jul 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: $75.65 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $73.55 - High Aug 3
• RES 1: $71.90 - High Aug 12
• PRICE: $69.43 @ 06:56 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: $67.60 - Low Aug 9
• SUP 2: $66.91 - Jul 20 low and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.75 - Low May 24
• SUP 4: $63.89 - Low May 21

Brent futures remain in a broad corrective bearish cycle and attention is on the key support that has been defined at $66.91, Jul 20 low. A break of this bear trigger is required to strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, just though and a switch would highlight a stronger bearish threat. Initial resistance to watch is $71.90, Aug 12 high. A break would be positive.

WTI TECHS: (U1) Key Support Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: $74.90 - High Jul 13
• RES 3: $74.23 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $71.96 - High Aug 3
• RES 1: $69.62 - High Aug 12
• PRICE: $67.14 @ 07:14 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: $65.73 - Low Aug 16
• SUP 2: $65.01/64.60 - Low Jul 20 / 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally
• SUP 3: $63.10 - Low May 24
• SUP 4: $61.06 - Low May 21 and key support

WTI futures remain in a broad corrective bearish cycle and attention is on the key support at $65.01, Jul 20 low. A break of this bear trigger is required to strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, just though and a switch would highlight a stronger bearish threat. Initial resistance to watch is $69.62, Aug 12 high. A break would be positive.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1798.7 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1792.1 @ 07:17 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1689.9 - 61.8% retracement of the 2020 Range

Gold is holding onto recent gains and is trading higher today. The yellow metal is through the 20-day EMA and sights are set on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1798.7. A breach of this average would strengthen a bullish chase and suggest scope for gains towards the key resistance at $1834.1, the Jul 15 high. On the downside, initial support is seen at $1751.7, the Aug 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Flag Correction

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 04 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.405 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $24.561 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.873 @ 07:56 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.222 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 rally

Silver remains bearish. The confirmation of a death cross in the DMA space recently highlights the current bearish theme and note too that recent price action since Aug 9, has taken on the appearance of a bear flag. A break and close below the Aug 9 low of $22.626 would confirm a resumption of bearish pressure and open a key Fibonacci support at 20.871, 50% of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 range. The 20-day EMA at $24.561 marks resistance.