MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Bounce Persists

Price Signal Summary – Oil Bounce Persists

• S&P E-Minis maintains a positive short-term tone despite yesterday’s move lower. The contract traded higher last Friday to confirm an extension of the current bullish cycle. Price traded above the 20-day EMA and this opens the 50-day EMA, currently at 4028.87. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play The primary trend direction is down though. Moving average studies are in bear mode condition and this highlights a clear bearish trend set-up.
• EURUSD has pulled away from its most recent highs. This means that key resistance at 1.0618 remains intact - the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The short-term outlook in GBPUSD is bearish and attention is on key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. EURJPY traded higher Tuesday, delivering a fresh cycle high of 144.28. This high print has cancelled a recent 3-day candle pattern - evening star reversal.
• Gold remains in consolidation mode. The yellow metal still appears vulnerable and support remains exposed. The recent pullback from above the 50-day EMA highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures continue to trade above last week’s lows and the contract traded higher again yesterday. An extension of gains would open $113.49 next, a Fibonacci retracement and $116.58, the Jun 17 high.
• Bund futures have continued to pull away from recent highs. From a short-term perspective, a bullish corrective cycle is potentially still in play. Gilt futures have pulled back from last week’s high of 114.55 (Jun 24). Despite the move lower, a short-term bullish corrective cycle remains in play and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 115.55, the Jun 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0642/0774 50-day EMA / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0615/18 High Jun 27 / Bear channel top from Feb 10 high
• PRICE: 1.0510 @ 06:06 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 1.0445/0359 Low Jun 17 and 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD has pulled away from its most recent highs. This means that key resistance at 1.0618 remains intact - the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The primary trend direction is down and the outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies also point south and a break lower would refocus attention on 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. A clear break of 1.0618 however would alter the picture and highlight a channel breakout.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2518 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.2319/2406 20-day EMA / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2198 @ 06:13 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 1.2161/2042 Low Jun 22 and 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

The short-term outlook in GBPUSD is bearish and attention is on key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of weakness would expose 1.1934 and clearance of this bear trigger would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8646 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 0.8616 @ 06:31 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 0.8576 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8519 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8486 Low Jun 9
• SUP 4: 0.8433 Low May 23

The EURGBP trend needle continues to point north. Moving average studies are still in a bull mode condition and this clearly highlights positive market sentiment. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on a retest of 0.8721, Jun 15 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend. Firm support is at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 0.8519 today.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: 139.07 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 136.71/88 High Jun 22 / High Oct 1998
• PRICE: 136.06 @ 06:38 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 133.85/131.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.29 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY resumed gains ahead of yesterday’s close, keeping cycle highs under pressure. Trend conditions remain bullish, reinforced by last week’s confirmation of a resumption of the primary uptrend. Fresh cycle highs also maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and the focus is on 136.88 next, the Oct 1998 high. Key short-term support is unchanged at 131.50.

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 144.28 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 142.95 @ 06:45 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 141.37 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: 138.97/37.85 50-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY traded higher Tuesday, delivering a fresh cycle high of 144.28. This high print has cancelled a recent 3-day candle pattern - evening star reversal. This reinforces the uptrend and a continuation higher would open 144.58, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T support is at 141.37, the 20-day EMA. The cross has pulled back from yesterday’s high, a break of the 20-day EMA is required to once again highlight a potential top and short-term reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Still Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.7083 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6998/7069 20-day EMA / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.6898 @ 06:53 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 0.6869/51 Low Jun 23/14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD is unchanged and the pair continues to consolidate above support at 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Trend signals remain bearish and a resumption of bearish activity would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high, remains a key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Doji Candle Pattern

• RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 2: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2917/3017 High Jun 27/23
• PRICE: 1.2872 @ 07:00 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 1.2819/2801 Low Jun 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2732 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 17 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support

The USDCAD outlook is bullish, with the corrective cycle stalling on Tuesday as the pair finished the day closer to Tuesday’s high. In candle terms, yesterday is a doji pattern and this points to a possible short-term bullish reversal and the end of the recent corrective pullback. A resumption of strength would refocus attention on resistance at 1.3079 the Jun 17 and a bull trigger. Firm support lies at 1.2801, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Pulls Away From Last Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 152.28 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.82 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.06 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 147.82/49.00 High Jun 27/24
• PRICE: 145.52 @ 05:05 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 144.72 Low Jun 28
• SUP 2: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)

Bund futures have continued to pull away from recent highs. From a short-term perspective, a bullish corrective cycle is potentially still in play. Gains last week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and a resumption of strength would signal scope for a climb towards 150.06, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 142.56, Jun 17 low. The bear trigger is 140.67.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Watching Support

• RES 4: 125.112 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 3: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 2: 124.124 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 1: 123.942/960 20-day EMA / High Jun 24
• PRICE: 122.310 @ 05:13 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 121.910 Low Jun 28
• SUP 2: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)

Bobl futures traded higher last week but stalled at 123.960 on Jun 24. Despite the latest pullback, a short-term bullish corrective phase remains in play. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 124.124, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at 120.760, the Jun 17 low. A break of this level would expose the bear trigger at 119.940, Jun 16 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 109.405 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 109.334 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 2: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 1: 109.031 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• PRICE: 108.525 @ 05:19 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 108.290 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 108.025/107.705 Low Jun 21 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a bullish short-term tone despite the recent pullback from the Jun 24 high. The climb last week above the 20-day EMA strengthened short-term bullish conditions and continues to suggest scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. This has opened 109.031, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is at 108.025, Jun 21 low. A break would signal a bearish reversal and expose the bear trigger at 107.705.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 115.02 High Jun 8
• RES 1: 113.61/14.55 20-day EMA / High Jun 24
• PRICE: 112.15 @ Close Jun 28
• SUP 1: 111.81 Low Jun 28
• SUP 2: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 4: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures have pulled back from last week’s high of 114.55 (Jun 24). Despite the move lower, a short-term bullish corrective cycle remains in play and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 115.55, the Jun 6 high. The broader trend remains down with key support and the bear trigger defined at 109.89, the Jun 16 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 125.11 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 124.48 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 2: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 122.80/123.15 High Jun 24 and Jun 9
• PRICE: 120.19 @ Close Jun 28
• SUP 1: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

BTP futures traded higher last week and breached the 20-day EMA. The breach of this average continues to suggest potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 123.88, the May 9 low plus a recent breakout level. Initial support to watch is at 118.60, the Jun 22 low. A break of this support would instead signal a short-term bearish reversal and the end of the current correction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Still Trading Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3630.50 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3584.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3502.00 @ 05:31 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play The primary trend direction is down though. Moving average studies are in bear mode condition and this highlights a clear bearish trend set-up. Firm resistance is at 3630.50 the 50-day EMA and key support is at 3384.00, Jun 16 low. A breach of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen S/T bullish conditions, signalling scope for a stronger recovery.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4028.87 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3831.50 @ 06:55 BST June 29
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a positive short-term tone despite yesterday’s move lower. The contract traded higher last Friday to confirm an extension of the current bullish cycle. Price traded above the 20-day EMA and this opens the 50-day EMA, currently at 4028.87. The primary trend direction remains down though and a reversal lower would signal the end of the correction. This would also refocus attention on the bear trigger at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $121.25 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $118.59 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $117.51 @ 06:59 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: $111.26/107.03 - Low Jun 27/22
• SUP 2: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.14 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $98.32 - Low Apr 25

Brent futures traded higher again Tuesday, extending gains from $107.03, the Jun 22 low. A continuation higher would set the scene for a test of the next firm resistance at $121.25, the Jun 17 high. Clearance of this level would expose the bull trigger at $125.19, Jun 14 high. For bears, a failure to hold on to this week’s gains would highlight a short-term reversal and this would refocus attention on the $107.03 key support, Jun 22 low.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $113.49 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - 22 downleg
• PRICE: $111.07 @ 08:00 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: $105.60/101.53 - Low Jun 27/22
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures continue to trade above last week’s lows and the contract traded higher again yesterday. An extension of gains would open $113.49 next, a Fibonacci retracement and $116.58, the Jun 17 high. For bears, a reversal lower from current levels would signal the end of the recent recovery and this would refocus attention on the key support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. A break would confirm a resumption of recent bearish activity.

GOLD TECHS: Support Still Appears Exposed

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 2: $1869.2 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1855.7 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1820.1 @ 07:21 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold remains in consolidation mode. The yellow metal still appears vulnerable and support remains exposed. The recent pullback from above the 50-day EMA highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance to watch is at $1869.2.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
• RES 1: $22.175/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6 and key resistance
• PRICE: $20.831 @ 08:16 BST Jun 29
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal is trading closer to its recent highs. A bearish threat follows the recent pullback from $22.517, the Jun 6 high. This also means the 50-day EMA, $22.175, remains intact. A clear breach of these two resistance points is required to highlight a short-term reversal. On the downside, attention is on key support at $20.464, May 13 low.