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Free AccessMNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Bounce Persists
Price Signal Summary – Oil Bounce Persists
- S&P E-Minis maintains a positive short-term tone despite yesterday’s move lower. The contract traded higher last Friday to confirm an extension of the current bullish cycle. Price traded above the 20-day EMA and this opens the 50-day EMA, currently at 4028.87. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play The primary trend direction is down though. Moving average studies are in bear mode condition and this highlights a clear bearish trend set-up.
- EURUSD has pulled away from its most recent highs. This means that key resistance at 1.0618 remains intact - the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The short-term outlook in GBPUSD is bearish and attention is on key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. EURJPY traded higher Tuesday, delivering a fresh cycle high of 144.28. This high print has cancelled a recent 3-day candle pattern - evening star reversal.
- Gold remains in consolidation mode. The yellow metal still appears vulnerable and support remains exposed. The recent pullback from above the 50-day EMA highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures continue to trade above last week’s lows and the contract traded higher again yesterday. An extension of gains would open $113.49 next, a Fibonacci retracement and $116.58, the Jun 17 high.
- Bund futures have continued to pull away from recent highs. From a short-term perspective, a bullish corrective cycle is potentially still in play. Gilt futures have pulled back from last week’s high of 114.55 (Jun 24). Despite the move lower, a short-term bullish corrective cycle remains in play and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 115.55, the Jun 6 high.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Channel Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
- RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 1.0642/0774 50-day EMA / High Jun 9
- RES 1: 1.0615/18 High Jun 27 / Bear channel top from Feb 10 high
- PRICE: 1.0510 @ 06:06 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 1.0445/0359 Low Jun 17 and 15
- SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing
EURUSD has pulled away from its most recent highs. This means that key resistance at 1.0618 remains intact - the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The primary trend direction is down and the outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies also point south and a break lower would refocus attention on 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. A clear break of 1.0618 however would alter the picture and highlight a channel breakout.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus
- RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 1.2518 High Jun 10
- RES 2: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
- RES 1: 1.2319/2406 20-day EMA / High Jun 16
- PRICE: 1.2198 @ 06:13 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 1.2161/2042 Low Jun 22 and 16
- SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
- SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020
The short-term outlook in GBPUSD is bearish and attention is on key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of weakness would expose 1.1934 and clearance of this bear trigger would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North
- RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8646 High Jun 28
- PRICE: 0.8616 @ 06:31 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 0.8576 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8519 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8486 Low Jun 9
- SUP 4: 0.8433 Low May 23
The EURGBP trend needle continues to point north. Moving average studies are still in a bull mode condition and this clearly highlights positive market sentiment. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on a retest of 0.8721, Jun 15 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend. Firm support is at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 0.8519 today.
USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Action
- RES 4: 139.07 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
- RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
- RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
- RES 1: 136.71/88 High Jun 22 / High Oct 1998
- PRICE: 136.06 @ 06:38 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 133.85/131.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
- SUP 3: 131.29 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low
- SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support
USDJPY resumed gains ahead of yesterday’s close, keeping cycle highs under pressure. Trend conditions remain bullish, reinforced by last week’s confirmation of a resumption of the primary uptrend. Fresh cycle highs also maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and the focus is on 136.88 next, the Oct 1998 high. Key short-term support is unchanged at 131.50.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
- RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
- RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
- RES 1: 144.28 High Jun 28
- PRICE: 142.95 @ 06:45 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 141.37 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
- SUP 3: 138.97/37.85 50-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
- SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30
EURJPY traded higher Tuesday, delivering a fresh cycle high of 144.28. This high print has cancelled a recent 3-day candle pattern - evening star reversal. This reinforces the uptrend and a continuation higher would open 144.58, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T support is at 141.37, the 20-day EMA. The cross has pulled back from yesterday’s high, a break of the 20-day EMA is required to once again highlight a potential top and short-term reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Still Exposed
- RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
- RES 2: 0.7083 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6998/7069 20-day EMA / High Jun 16
- PRICE: 0.6898 @ 06:53 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 0.6869/51 Low Jun 23/14
- SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
- SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged and the pair continues to consolidate above support at 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Trend signals remain bearish and a resumption of bearish activity would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high, remains a key short-term resistance.
USDCAD TECHS: Doji Candle Pattern
- RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
- RES 2: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.2917/3017 High Jun 27/23
- PRICE: 1.2872 @ 07:00 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 1.2819/2801 Low Jun 28 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2732 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 17 rally
- SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support
The USDCAD outlook is bullish, with the corrective cycle stalling on Tuesday as the pair finished the day closer to Tuesday’s high. In candle terms, yesterday is a doji pattern and this points to a possible short-term bullish reversal and the end of the recent corrective pullback. A resumption of strength would refocus attention on resistance at 1.3079 the Jun 17 and a bull trigger. Firm support lies at 1.2801, the 50-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U2) Pulls Away From Last Week’s Highs
- RES 4: 152.28 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.82 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 150.06 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 147.82/49.00 High Jun 27/24
- PRICE: 145.52 @ 05:05 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 144.72 Low Jun 28
- SUP 2: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
- SUP 4: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)
Bund futures have continued to pull away from recent highs. From a short-term perspective, a bullish corrective cycle is potentially still in play. Gains last week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and a resumption of strength would signal scope for a climb towards 150.06, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 142.56, Jun 17 low. The bear trigger is 140.67.
BOBL TECHS: (U2) Watching Support
- RES 4: 125.112 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
- RES 3: 124.490 High Jun 3
- RES 2: 124.124 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
- RES 1: 123.942/960 20-day EMA / High Jun 24
- PRICE: 122.310 @ 05:13 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 121.910 Low Jun 28
- SUP 2: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)
Bobl futures traded higher last week but stalled at 123.960 on Jun 24. Despite the latest pullback, a short-term bullish corrective phase remains in play. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 124.124, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at 120.760, the Jun 17 low. A break of this level would expose the bear trigger at 119.940, Jun 16 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 109.405 High Jun 1
- RES 3: 109.334 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
- RES 2: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
- RES 1: 109.031 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
- PRICE: 108.525 @ 05:19 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 108.290 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 108.025/107.705 Low Jun 21 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
Schatz futures maintain a bullish short-term tone despite the recent pullback from the Jun 24 high. The climb last week above the 20-day EMA strengthened short-term bullish conditions and continues to suggest scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. This has opened 109.031, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is at 108.025, Jun 21 low. A break would signal a bearish reversal and expose the bear trigger at 107.705.
GILT TECHS: (U2) Key Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 116.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 115.55 High Jun 6
- RES 2: 115.02 High Jun 8
- RES 1: 113.61/14.55 20-day EMA / High Jun 24
- PRICE: 112.15 @ Close Jun 28
- SUP 1: 111.81 Low Jun 28
- SUP 2: 110.57 Low Jun 21
- SUP 3: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
- SUP 4: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)
Gilt futures have pulled back from last week’s high of 114.55 (Jun 24). Despite the move lower, a short-term bullish corrective cycle remains in play and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 115.55, the Jun 6 high. The broader trend remains down with key support and the bear trigger defined at 109.89, the Jun 16 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
BTP TECHS: (U2) Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: 125.11 High Jun 1
- RES 3: 124.48 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 14 downleg
- RES 2: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
- RES 1: 122.80/123.15 High Jun 24 and Jun 9
- PRICE: 120.19 @ Close Jun 28
- SUP 1: 118.60 Low Jun 22
- SUP 2: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
BTP futures traded higher last week and breached the 20-day EMA. The breach of this average continues to suggest potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 123.88, the May 9 low plus a recent breakout level. Initial support to watch is at 118.60, the Jun 22 low. A break of this support would instead signal a short-term bearish reversal and the end of the current correction.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Still Trading Above Recent Lows
- RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
- RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
- RES 2: 3630.50 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 3584.00 High Jun 27
- PRICE: 3502.00 @ 05:31 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
- SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play The primary trend direction is down though. Moving average studies are in bear mode condition and this highlights a clear bearish trend set-up. Firm resistance is at 3630.50 the 50-day EMA and key support is at 3384.00, Jun 16 low. A breach of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen S/T bullish conditions, signalling scope for a stronger recovery.
E-MINI S&P (U2): Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
- RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 4028.87 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
- PRICE: 3831.50 @ 06:55 BST June 29
- SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
- SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
S&P E-Minis maintains a positive short-term tone despite yesterday’s move lower. The contract traded higher last Friday to confirm an extension of the current bullish cycle. Price traded above the 20-day EMA and this opens the 50-day EMA, currently at 4028.87. The primary trend direction remains down though and a reversal lower would signal the end of the correction. This would also refocus attention on the bear trigger at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Holding On To Recent Gains
- RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $121.25 - High Jun 17
- RES 1: $118.59 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $117.51 @ 06:59 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: $111.26/107.03 - Low Jun 27/22
- SUP 2: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: $100.14 - Low May 11
- SUP 4: $98.32 - Low Apr 25
Brent futures traded higher again Tuesday, extending gains from $107.03, the Jun 22 low. A continuation higher would set the scene for a test of the next firm resistance at $121.25, the Jun 17 high. Clearance of this level would expose the bull trigger at $125.19, Jun 14 high. For bears, a failure to hold on to this week’s gains would highlight a short-term reversal and this would refocus attention on the $107.03 key support, Jun 22 low.
WTI TECHS: (Q2) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
- RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
- RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
- RES 1: $113.49 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - 22 downleg
- PRICE: $111.07 @ 08:00 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: $105.60/101.53 - Low Jun 27/22
- SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
- SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
- SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25
WTI futures continue to trade above last week’s lows and the contract traded higher again yesterday. An extension of gains would open $113.49 next, a Fibonacci retracement and $116.58, the Jun 17 high. For bears, a reversal lower from current levels would signal the end of the recent recovery and this would refocus attention on the key support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. A break would confirm a resumption of recent bearish activity.
GOLD TECHS: Support Still Appears Exposed
- RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
- RES 3: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
- RES 2: $1869.2 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
- RES 1: $1855.7 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $1820.1 @ 07:21 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
- SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
Gold remains in consolidation mode. The yellow metal still appears vulnerable and support remains exposed. The recent pullback from above the 50-day EMA highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance to watch is at $1869.2.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus
- RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
- RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
- RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
- RES 1: $22.175/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6 and key resistance
- PRICE: $20.831 @ 08:16 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
- SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal is trading closer to its recent highs. A bearish threat follows the recent pullback from $22.517, the Jun 6 high. This also means the 50-day EMA, $22.175, remains intact. A clear breach of these two resistance points is required to highlight a short-term reversal. On the downside, attention is on key support at $20.464, May 13 low.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.