MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Defying Gravity

Price Signal Summary – Oil Defying Gravity

• E-Mini S&P futures are lower today. The contract traded above the 20-day EMA at 4386.89 last Thursday. The failure to hold above this EMA is a bearish development. Broader trend signals remain bearish and a deeper pullback would open the 4101.75 key support handle and bear trigger. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded sharply lower again today to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. The contract has moved through the 50.0% retracement of the bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 and has today probed the 61.8% handle, at 3468.60.
• The EURUSD sell-off has accelerated and the pair has hit a fresh cycle low of 1.0822. The break lower once again confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend with moving averages also pointing south. USDJPY traded lower Friday but remains inside its recent range. The pair also continues to trade above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above its key support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low. AUDUSD continues to climb as the pair extends the rebound from 0.6968, the Jan 28 low. The pair last week cleared resistance at 0.7314, Jan 13 high, reinforcing bullish conditions and this signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle.
• Gold focus is the psychological $2000.0 handle that has been probed and $2004.4, a Fibonacci projection. WTI futures gapped higher at today’s open. Fresh cycle highs reinforce the current trend direction and mark an extension of the underlying bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures rallied on Mar 1 and this resulted in a break out of its recent range. The move higher highlights a short-term bullish theme and marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery from 121.10, the Feb 16 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.1226 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1121 Low Jan 28 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 1.1068 High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.0961 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0822 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 1.0822 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0654 2.50 proj of the Jan - Mar - May 2021 price swing

The EURUSD sell-off has accelerated once again today and the pair has delivered a fresh cycle low of 1.0822. The break lower once again confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend with moving averages also pointing south and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. The focus is on 1.0767, a low dating back to May 2020. Today’s intraday high of 1.0961 marks initial resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3486 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3430 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 1: 1.3259 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3217 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 1.3174 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 1.3163 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3156 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3104 1.382 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing

GBPUSD is bearish. The pair traded lower Friday, slipping to new YTD lows, reinforcing the current bearish theme. Moving average studies have shifted back to a bear mode condition suggesting potential for an extension lower over the medium-term time horizon. Attention is on 1.3163, the Dec 8 and this level also represents a key support and bear trigger. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3358, the Jan 27 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Below Its Former Range Base

• RES 4: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 3: 0.8406 High Feb 25 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8344 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8306 Low Feb 24
• PRICE: 0.8227 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 0.8203 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8193 1.236 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8169 1.382 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP continues to head south. Last week’s move lower resulted in a clear break of support at 0.8285, Feb 3 low and a move through key support at 0.8282/77, the Feb ’20 and Dec’19 lows and a key bear trigger. Note that prices remain below 0.8300 highlighting a break of the base of a multi-year range - a key bearish development. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8306, the Feb 24 low. The focus is on 0.8193 next.

USDJPY TECHS: Range Bound

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
• PRICE: 114.98 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY traded lower Friday but remains inside its recent range. The pair also continues to trade above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above its key support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the trend condition remains bullish highlighted by a positive moving average set-up. Stronger gains would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance. A break of 114.16, would instead highlight a bearish threat.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Under Pressure

• RES 4: 129.76 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 128.77 High Mar 2
• RES 2: 127.39 LowDec 3/6
• RES 1: 125.90 Intraday high
• PRICE: 125.08 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 124.28 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle
• SUP 2: 123.45 1.618 proj of the Jan - Sep - Oct ‘21 price swing
• SUP 3: 123.01 Low Nov 20 2020
• SUP 4: 128.85 Low Nov 19 2020

The downtrend in EURJPY accelerated Friday and the cross has again traded to a fresh cycle low today. Last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and highlights an acceleration of the current bear cycle. The focus is on 124.28 next, 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle. On the upside, resistance is seen at 127.39, the Dec 3/6 low and a recent breakout level.

AUDUSD TECHS: Still Climbing

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7556 High Oct 28, 2021 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7441 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7413 @ 08:12 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 0.7227 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7204 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.7141 Low Feb 25

AUDUSD continues to climb as the pair extends the rebound from 0.6968, the Jan 28 low. The pair last week cleared resistance at 0.7314, Jan 13 high, reinforcing bullish conditions and this signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle. Moving average studies appear to be turning bullish. A confirmed reversal to bull-mode in these indicators, would highlight a positive M/T outlook. The focus is 0.7471, the Nov 4 high. Initial support is seen at 0.7314.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2878 High Feb 24 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2792 High Mar 4
• PRICE: 1.2703 @ 08:16 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 4: 1.2451 LowJan 19 and a key support

USDCAD last week recovered well from the week’s low of 1.2587. The short-term outlook remains bearish. The recent move lower marks an extension of the reversal from 1.2878, Feb 24 high and still signals potential for a deeper retracement of the recent Jan 19 - Feb 24 upleg. The pair has breached 61.8% of this bull cycle and this has opened 1.2552, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is seen at Friday’s 1.2792 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 170.66 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 3: 170.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 169.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 1: 168.67 Intraday high
• PRICE: 168.28 @ 05:03 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 165.31 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 164.39 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 163.00 Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: 162.29 Low Feb 22

Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 169.44, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 165.51, the Mar 3 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible near-term top.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 135.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 134.660 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 2: 134.240 0.618 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 1: 134.080 Intraday high
• PRICE: 133.860 @ 05:13 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 132.460 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 131.050 Low Feb 25
• SUP 3: 130.780 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 130.410 Low Feb 8 and a key support

Bobl futures remain bullish following and the contract has to traded to a fresh cycle high. This confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. This opens 134.240 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a firm short-term support has been defined at 132.460, the Mar 3 low. A break would signal a potential short-term top.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Heading North

• RES 4: 112.798 1.236 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 3: 112.580 1.000 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 2: 112.362 0.764 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 1: 112.227 0.618 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• PRICE: 112.175 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 111.860 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 111.655 Low Mar 3 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 111.435 Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: 111.240 Low Feb 23

Schatz futures remain bullish. The contract has traded to a fresh trend high, extending the recovery from 111.655, the Mar 3 low. The move higher confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 112.227 and 112.362, Fibonacci projection levels. On the downside, 111.655 is seen as a firm short-term support.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 127.47 2.236 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 126.90 2.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 126.81 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 125.65 @ Close Mar 4
• SUP 1: 123.50 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 122.76 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 122.04 Low Feb 23 and a key intraday support
• SUP 4: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures rallied on Mar 1 and this resulted in a break out of its recent range. The move higher highlights a short-term bullish theme and marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery from 121.10, the Feb 16 low. This signals scope for a climb towards 126.90 and 127.47 next, Fibonacci projections based on a recent price swing. Key S/T support has been defined at the Mar 1 low of 123.50. Pullbacks, for now, are considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 149.22 High Dec 22 2021 (cont)
• RES 3: 148.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 146.74 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 144.65 @ Close Mar 4
• SUP 1: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 140.54 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and key support

The BTP futures short-term outlook remains bullish following strong gains on Mar 3 as the contract extended the retracement of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. Price has breached 145.73, 76.4% of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. This has opened 147.93 next, the Jan 31 high. A break of 147.93 would further strengthen the current bullish condition. Firm support is seen at 142.51, the Mar 3 low.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Fails To Hold Above The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4468.03 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4418.75 High Mar 3
• PRICE: 4256.25 @ 07:53 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 4227.50/4101.75 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures are lower today. The contract traded above the 20-day EMA at 4386.89 last Thursday. The failure to hold above this EMA is a bearish development. Broader trend signals remain bearish and a deeper pullback would open the 4101.75 key support handle and bear trigger. Clearance of the 20-day EMA is required to suggest scope for further short-term gains and a test of the 50-day EMA at 4468.03.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Impulsive Sell-Off Extends

• RES 4: 4065.30 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 3938.10 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 3714.50 High Mar 4
• RES 1: 3.510.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 3451.00 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 3425.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3318.60 2.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3246.30 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded sharply lower again today to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. The contract has moved through the 50.0% retracement of the bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 and has today probed the 61.8% handle, at 3468.60. MA studies remain in a bear mode condition and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs suggests more weakness lies ahead. The focus is on 3379, Dec 21 2020 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Impulsive Rally Extends

• RES 4: $149.31 - 4.236 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $144.62 - 4.00 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $140.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $139.13 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $129.66 @ 05:29 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $122.79 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $106.83 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 3: $98.30 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: $92.75 - Low Fev 25 and a key short-term support

Brent futures have spiked higher today and gapped at the overnight open. Today’s price action once again highlights an acceleration in the current uptrend, taking price further into overbought territory. Volatile price action is likely to dominate however it is clear that the uptrend remains firmly intact. The focus is on the $140.00 handle next. Initial support lies at today’s intraday low of $122.79.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Still Defying Gravity

• RES 4: $140.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $135.61 - 3.764 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $132.75 - 3.618 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 1: $130.50 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $125.89 @ 05:37 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $121.33 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $105.18 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 3: $95.32 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support

WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend and the contract gapped higher at today’s open. Fresh cycle highs reinforce the current trend direction and mark an extension of the underlying bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies also point north, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on $132.75, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support lies at today’s intraday low of $121.33.

GOLD TECHS: Testing The Psychological $2000.0 Handle

• RES 4: $2050.0 - High Aug 10 1 2020
• RES 3: $2030.0 - High Aug 11 2020
• RES 2: $2004.4 - 2.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: $2000.9 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1983.5 @ 05:58 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $1929.9 - Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1853.9 - High Jan 25
• SUP 4: $1844.7 - Low Feb 15

Gold is trading higher this morning and has cleared the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and also highlights the fact that prices have cleared the top of the recent bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. The focus is the psychological $2000.0 handle that has been probed and $2004.4, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is seen Friday’s low of $1929.9.

SILVER TECHS: Resumption Of The Uptrend

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.789 - 61..8% retracement of the Feb - Dec downleg
• RES 2: $26.467 - High Jul 14 2021
• RES 1: $26.143 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $25.972 @ 08:30 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $24.866 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.651 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support

Silver remains in an uptrend and has today confirmed a resumption of its current bull cycle. The metal has cleared resistance at $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high and is challenging the $26.00 handle. An extension higher would pave the way for strength towards $26.467, the Jul 14 2021 high and $26.789, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is seen at $24.866, the Mar 2 low.