MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Trades Higher Still

Price Signal Summary – Oil Trades Higher Still

• S&P E-Minis remain firm and continue to trade above the 20-day EMA at 4047.83. The break above the average suggests scope for a continuation of the current corrective cycle and attention turns to key short-term resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4192.00. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher again Friday and this signals a resumption of the current bull cycle. The contract has traded through its 50-day EMA, at 3722.90.
• EURUSD maintains a positive short-term theme and is once again trading above the 50-day EMA. The pair has also recently cleared the 20-day EMA and breached a key resistance at 1.0642, May 5 high. EURGBP maintains a positive theme despite the pullback from last Tuesday’s high of 0.8619. The break higher earlier this week reinstates a short-term bullish theme and attention is on 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. AUDUSD traded higher Friday and maintains a firmer short-term tone. The resumption of gains exposes the 50-day EMA, at 0.7169 today. This average marks an important resistance and a clear break is required to further strengthen bullish conditions.
• Gold maintains a firmer short-term tone and is trading closer to its recent highs. The yellow metal last week traded above resistance at $1858.3, the 20-day EMA. WTI futures traded higher still Friday to confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 116.43, the Mar 7 contract high and the bull trigger.
• Recent fresh cycle lows in Bund futures have maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. The primary trend direction in Gilt futures remains down. The pullback from recent highs is a bearish development and suggests the correction between May 9 - 12 is over. Attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 115.70 May 9 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Eyeing The Bear Channel Top

• RES 4: 1.0936 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 1.0822 Bear channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.0765 High May 27
• PRICE: 1.0735 @ 22:07 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.0643/0533 Low May 25 / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461/350 Low May 18 and19 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD maintains a positive short-term theme and is once again trading above the 50-day EMA. The pair has also recently cleared the 20-day EMA and breached a key resistance at 1.0642, May 5 high. This strengthens the current bull cycle that began on May 13. Note that the latest recovery also started from the base of a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top at 1.0822 is the next objective. Initial support is at 1.0643.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2800 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2731 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2667 High May 27
• PRICE: 1.2625 @ 22:08 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.2472/38 Low May 24 and 20
• SUP 2: 1.2317/2156 Low May 17 / Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend
• SUP 4: 1.2000 psychological round number

GBPUSD maintains a firmer tone and the current corrective bull cycle remains in play. The pair has breached resistance at 1.2638, May 4 high. This reinforces the bullish set-up and signals scope for a climb towards the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2731 today. This average also represents the next key resistance. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 1.2156, the May 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.2472.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8587 High May 24
• PRICE: 0.8503 @ 22:09 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 0.8480/8433 20-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP maintains a positive theme despite the pullback from last Tuesday’s high of 0.8619. The break higher earlier this week reinstates a short-term bullish theme and attention is on 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume a 3.5 month uptrend. Initial support lies at 0.8480, the 20-day EMA ahead of a firmer short-term level at 0.8433, the May 23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 3: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 129.78/131.35 High May 17 / High May 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 128.12 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.07 @ 22:10 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 126.36 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 126.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY is unchanged. The pair traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 126.95, Apr 27 low. This level marked an important short-term pivot support and the break suggests scope for a continuation lower. A move down is still considered a correction though and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 126.00. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 129.78, May 17 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.80 High May 23
• PRICE: 136.40 @ 22:11 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 133.93 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 132.81/66 100-dma / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.20 50% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 21 bull phase
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

EURJPY is consolidating. On May 23, the cross attempted a break of resistance at 136.75, May 12 high, before pulling back. 132.66, the May 12 low, has been defined as a key S/T support. The recovery from 132.66 threatens a recent bearish theme. An extension higher would open 138.32, May 9 high and an important S.T resistance. On the downside, clearance of 132.66 would be a bearish development. This would open 132.20.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7245 50.0% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7169 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7163 @ 22:13 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 0.7036 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.6950/29 Low May 18 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6784 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing

AUDUSD traded higher Friday and maintains a firmer short-term tone. The resumption of gains exposes the 50-day EMA, at 0.7169 today. This average marks an important resistance and a clear break is required to further strengthen bullish conditions. Gains are still considered corrective however and the primary trend direction is down. The bear trigger is 0.6829, May 12 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 0.7036, May 25 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Bear Cycle Low

• RES 4: 1.3091 High Nov 24 2020
• RES 3: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 1: 1.2896 High May 18
• PRICE: 1.2728 @ 22:14 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.2719 Low May 27
• SUP 2: 1.2714 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD traded lower Friday and has breached support at 1.2765, May 24 low. This also means that the pair is below its 50-day EMA. An extension lower would open the next key short-term support at 1.2714, May 5 low. The latest bear leg is still considered corrective and the broader trend outlook is bullish. Initial resistance is at 1.2896, May 18 high. A break would signal a potential bullish reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 157.29 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 155.89/156.00 50-day EMA and key resistance / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 155.33 High May 12
• PRICE: 153.74 @ Close of May 27
• SUP 1: 151.89/150.49 Low May 18 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Bund futures continue to trade broadly sideways and are below recent highs. The trend direction remains down. Recent fresh cycle lows have maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 150.49, the bear trigger. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 156.00.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Watching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 129.770 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 2: 128.380 High May 12
• RES 1: 128.258 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.470 @ Close of May 27
• SUP 1: 126.610/126.010 Low May 18 / Low May 6 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures remain in consolidation mode. Price, on May 12, probed resistance at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high. A resumption of strength and a clear breach of 128.310 would leave the 50-day EMA at 128.258 exposed. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle. The primary trend remains down, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 126.010.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Outlook Is Bearish

• RES 4: 111.095 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - May 6 downleg
• RES 3: 111.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 110.593/110.690 50-day EMA / High May 12
• PRICE: 110.370 @ Close of May 27
• SUP 1: 110.110/109.980 Low May 18 / Low May 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

Schatz futures are consolidating. The primary trend direction remains down and a key short-term resistance has been defined at 110.690, May 13 high. A recent bullish corrective cycle appears to be over and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 109.980, May 6 low, where a break would resume the downtrend. The 50-day EMA, at 110.593, remains intact and this indicator represents an important resistance.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.25 High May 19
• RES 2: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 1: 118.51 High May 26
• PRICE: 117.77 @ Close of May 27
• SUP 1: 117.22 Low May 9
• SUP 2: 116.53 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.70 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 115.50 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend direction in Gilt futures remains down. The pullback from recent highs is a bearish development and suggests the correction between May 9 - 12 is over. Attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 115.70 May 9 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.25, May 9 high and the 120.00 handle, where a break is required to reinstate a short-term bullish bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 133.53 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 132.67 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.24 High May 12
• PRICE: 129.33 @ Close May 27
• SUP 1: 127.24/125.54 Low May 11 and 24 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish. A corrective (bullish) cycle has recently been established though and the contract did on May 12, manage to trade above a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high. Price has since pulled back however a resumption of strength would signal scope for a move towards 133.53, Apr 28 high. Key support is at 125.54, May 9 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3816.00 High May 27
• PRICE: 3809.00 @ Close of May 27
• SUP 1: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3400.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and a major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher again Friday and this signals a resumption of the current bull cycle. The contract has traded through its 50-day EMA, at 3722.90. The positive theme strengthened on the break of 3775.00, the May 5 high, ahead of the Friday close. This opens 3883.00, the Apr 21 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 3466.00, May 10 low. Initial support is at 3576.00, the May 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Gains Expose Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4191.98 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4168.00 @ 22:33 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 3960.50/3807.50 Low May 26 / Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis remain firm and continue to trade above the 20-day EMA at 4047.83. The break above the average suggests scope for a continuation of the current corrective cycle and attention turns to key short-term resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4192.00. Clearance of this hurdle will strengthen bullish conditions. The broader trend remains down though. The bear trigger is unchanged at 3807.50, May 20 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: $123.44 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $119.60 - High May 27
• PRICE: $119.43 @ 22:15 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $110.94 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $105.70/101.30 - Low May 13 / Low May 11
• SUP 3: $99.25 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: $97.18 - Low Apr 11

Brent futures traded higher again Friday and the contract has cleared $115.76, Mar 24 high and a short-term bull trigger. The break higher signals scope for a move towards the $120.00 handle and $121.13, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of $121.13 would strengthen bullish conditions and set sights on the major resistance and trend high of $129.94, the Mar 7 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $105.70, May 13 low.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $116.43 - High Mar 7 and the trend high
• RES 2: $116.00 - Psychological Resistance
• RES 1: $115.22 - High May 29
• PRICE: $115.07 @ 22:19 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $107.54/103.24 - Low May 26 / Low May 19
• SUP 2: $102.33/96.93 - 50-day EMA / Low May 11 and key S/T level
• SUP 3: $94.47 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: $92.15 - Low Apr 11 and a key support

WTI futures traded higher still Friday to confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 116.43, the Mar 7 contract high and the bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and clear the way for a test of the psychological $120.00 handle. On the downside, the firm short-term support to watch is at $103.24, May 19 low.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1882.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1869.7 - High May 24
• PRICE: $1853.7 @ 22:21 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 4: $1749.3 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold maintains a firmer short-term tone and is trading closer to its recent highs. The yellow metal last week traded above resistance at $1858.3, the 20-day EMA. This suggests potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1882.0. Gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the May 16 $1787.0 low.

SILVER TECHS: 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.078 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.196/206 - 20-day EMA / High May 24
• PRICE: $22.110 @ 22:22 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish despite the recovery from $20.464, May 13 low. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at $22.008, Feb 3 low and a bear trigger. The move lower reinforced the bearish theme and resulted in a breach of $21.427/423, the Dec 15 2021 low and Sep 29 2021 low. Sights are on $20.000 next. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at $22.196 the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger recovery.