MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Possible Bullish Reversal in GBP/USD

Price Signal Summary – Possible Bullish Reversal in GBP/USD

• S&P E-Minis traded lower last week following the reversal from 3928.00, Nov 1 high. Despite the latest retracement, a bull cycle remains in play following the recovery from 3502.00, Oct 13 low. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces this condition. The contract is holding on to its recent gains. The break to a fresh short-term trend high confirms a resumption of the bull cycle.
• GBPUSD found support Friday highlighting a potential bullish reversal of the Oct 27 - Nov 4 bear leg. Price is once again trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this is also seen as a positive development. USDJPY remains inside its recent range. The pair still appears vulnerable and resistance at 149.71, the Oct 24 high, remains intact. A deeper pullback would refocus attention on the 50-day EMA at 144.81. AUDUSD is unchanged and holding on to its latest gains. The pair rallied Friday. The move higher suggests the recent pullback between Oct 27 - Nov 3 is over. Key short-term resistance is at 0.6522, the Oct 27 high and 0.6547, Oct 4 high.
• Gold found support Friday and finished last week’s session on a bullish note. The rally Friday resulted in a print above the 50-day EMA at $1679.1. A clear breach of this EMA would highlight a short-term reversal and suggests potential for further gains near-term. WTI futures traded higher Friday. The outlook remains bullish and the contract yesterday pierced resistance at $92.34, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $95.55.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone following last week’s move lower and Monday’s bearish start to the week reinforces this theme. The break of 137.57, Oct 27 low, undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend. The latest shallow retracement still appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend. Price remains above the 20-day EMA - for now.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0034 High Nov 7
• PRICE: 1.0003 @ 05:48 GMT Nov 08
• SUP 1: 0.9883/9730 20-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 0.9705 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 0.9633 Low Oct 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

EURUSD rebounded Friday and traded higher yesterday. This highlights a bullish development and the pair has defined support at 0.9730, the Nov 3 low. Resistance at 0.9976, the Nov 3 high, has been cleared and this signals scope for an extension higher towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.0094, the Oct 27 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a move through 0.9730 is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1738 High Sep 13
• RES 2: 1645 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1566 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 1.1492 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 1.1373/1150 20-day EMA / Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0763 Low Sep 29

GBPUSD found support Friday highlighting a potential bullish reversal of the Oct 27 - Nov 4 bear leg. Price is once again trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this is also seen as a positive development. A continuation higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1645, Oct 27 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 26. Initial firm support is at 1.1150, the Nov 4 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Nov 12
• RES 1: 0.8791 High Nov 07
• PRICE: 0.8707 @ 06:17 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 0.8678 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP maintains a bullish theme, following last week’s gains and the recovery from 0.8560, the Oct 31 low. The cross has pierced a key short-term resistance at the Oct 21 high of 0.8781. A clear breach of this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.8867, the Oct 12 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower and a move through last Wednesday’s low of 0.8585 would instead resume recent bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 149.71 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 146.75 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 145.68/145.11 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.81 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

USDJPY remains inside its recent range. The pair still appears vulnerable and resistance at 149.71, the Oct 24 high, remains intact. A deeper pullback would refocus attention on the 50-day EMA at 144.81. This average is a key support and clearance of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that momentum studies are still pointing down. For bulls, a break of 149.71 would be a positive development.

EURJPY TECHS: Sights Set On Key Resistance

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.75 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 146.69 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 145.49 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 144.04/143.80 Low Nov 3 / Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 143.42 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.78 Low Oct 13

EURJPY found support last week at 144.04, the Nov 3 low. The recovery means key support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, remains intact. A break of this level is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, the Oct 13 low. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 148.40, the Oct 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 2 and open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6522/47 High Oct 27 / 4 and a key resistance zone
• PRICE: 0.6457 @ 08:12 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 0.6272 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD is unchanged and holding on to its latest gains. The pair rallied Friday. The move higher suggests the recent pullback between Oct 27 - Nov 3 is over. Key short-term resistance is at 0.6522, the Oct 27 high and 0.6547, Oct 4 high. A breach of this resistance zone would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, a reversal lower and a break of Thursday’s 0.6272 low, would reinstate a bearish threat.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3624/3808 20-day EMA / High Nov 03
• PRICE: 1.3510 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 1.3466 Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 1.3409 Low Sep 22
• SUP 3: 1.3352 50.0% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD traded sharply lower Friday. This resulted in a print below support at 1.3498, the 50-day EMA and 1.3496, the Oct 27 low. A clear break of this support zone would strengthen a bearish threat and likely trigger an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 13. This would open 1.3409, the Sep 22 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.3808, last Thursday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.23/92 50-day EMA / High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 137.90/139.24 20-day EMA / High Nov 2
• PRICE: 136.12 @ 05:10 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 135.65 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 2: 135.23 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 134.02 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone following last week’s move lower and Monday’s bearish start to the week reinforces this theme. The break of 137.57, Oct 27 low, undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. This has opened 135.65, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that key support is still far off at 134.02, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 137.90, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger / 5
• RES 1: 119.391/120.420 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 118.440 @ 05:16 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 118.400 Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures traded lower again Friday and has started the week on a softer note. Last week's round of weakness resulted in a break of support at 119.090, Oct 27 low. This undermines the recent bullish theme. An extension lower would highlight the risk of a pullback towards key support and a bear trigger at 117.630, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 121.010, the Oct 28 high. Initial resistance is at 119.391.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 107.165/400 High Nov 1 / High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 106.877 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.500 @ 05:26 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 106.470 Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The move lower last week in Schatz futures undermines the recent bull theme and yesterday’s extension lower reinforces a bearish threat. The contract has cleared initial support at 106.710, Oct 27 low. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a test of the key support and bear trigger at 106.350, the Oct 21 low. Key resistance is at 107.400, Oct 28 high. Initial resistance is at 106.877, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Shallow Retracement

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 102.35/104.39 High Nov 4 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 100.75 @ Close Nov 7
• SUP 1: 100.49/25 20-day EMA / Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend. The latest shallow retracement still appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend. Price remains above the 20-day EMA - for now. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and opens 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 116.54/117.93 High Nov 1 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 113.25 @ Close Nov 7
• SUP 1: 112.700 Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures are unchanged and continue to trade below 117.93, the Oct 27 high. Note that price is also trading at the recent lows. A continuation lower would undermine a recent bull theme and this would expose the next support at 112.07, the Oct 25 low. Key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear resistance at 117.93 to confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 113-27+ High Sep 21
• RES 3: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 112-22 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 110-29/111-31 20-day EMA / High Oct 27
• PRICE: 109-25 @ 16:05 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 109-10+ Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.09 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries traded slightly lower Monday and continue to trade below 111-31, the Oct 27 high and a key short-term resistance. A break of this hurdle is required to signal scope for an extension higher near-term. This would open the 50-day EMA at 112-22. The primary trend direction is down and recent weakness has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 108-26+, the Oct 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 3883.00 High Apr 21 (cont)
• RES 3: 3857.00 High Jun 6 (cont)
• RES 2: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key pivot point
• RES 1: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• PRICE: 3704.00 @ 05:41 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 3562.00/3526.10 Low Nov 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces this condition. The contract is holding on to its recent gains. The break to a fresh short-term trend high confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Oct 3. This paves the way for gains above the 3700.00 level. The next key resistance is at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3526.10.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Finds Support

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3828.07/3928.00 50-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 3812.50 @ 06:52 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 3704.25/3641.50 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded lower last week following the reversal from 3928.00, Nov 1 high. Despite the latest retracement, a bull cycle remains in play following the recovery from 3502.00, Oct 13 low. However, an extension lower would undermine this theme. Initial firm to watch lies at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low. A break would strengthen any developing bearish threat. For bulls, a strong resumption of gains would refocus attention on 3928.00, the bull trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 1: $99.56 - High Nov 7
• PRICE: $97.83 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $93.55/91.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key support

Brent futures maintain a bullish tone. Price has breached resistance at $96.75, the Oct 10 high and a key short-term resistance. The break strengthened the current bullish theme and paved the way for a climb towards $99.50, the Aug 30 high. This level was pierced Monday and a clear break would open $100.10, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $91.46, the Oct 31 low.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Pierces Resistance

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $93.74 - High Nov 7
• PRICE: $91.51 @ 07:12 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $87.60 - Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: $85.30 - Low Oct 31 and a key support
• SUP 3: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $78.36 - Low Sep 30

WTI futures traded higher Friday. The outlook remains bullish and the contract yesterday pierced resistance at $92.34, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $95.55. Moving average studies are beginning to display a bull mode position, reinforcing the current positive outlook. Support lies at $85.30, the Oct 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: $1745.6 - High Aug 29
• RES 3: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1714.8 - High Oct 7
• RES 1: $1682.1 - High Nov 4
• PRICE: $1669.1 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold found support Friday and finished last week’s session on a bullish note. The rally Friday resulted in a print above the 50-day EMA at $1679.1. A clear breach of this EMA would highlight a short-term reversal and suggests potential for further gains near-term. This would open $1714.8, the Oct 7 high. Key support is unchanged at $1615.0, the Sep 28 low. A break of this support would resume the recent downtrend.

SILVER TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $21.008 - High Nov 7
• PRICE: $20.638 @ 07:26 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

Silver rallied sharply higher Friday. This cancels a recent bearish theme and confirms an extension of the recovery that started Oct 14. A continuation higher would expose the next key resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a short-term bullish condition. On the downside, the first support to watch lies at $18.835, the Nov 3 low. A break of this level is required to once again highlight a bearish threat.