MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Primary Trend Direction in EUR/GBP Remains Down

Price Signal Summary – Primary Trend Direction in EUR/GBP Remains Down

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 4360.26. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, a bearish cycle since Jun 16 resulted in a correction. The contract has breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low.
• EURUSD remains below last week’s high of 1.1012 (Jun 22). The latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on 1.0845, the 50-day EMA and a key support. The primary trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down. The pullback from Friday’s high confirms recent gains as corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA has been breached, however, price has remained below resistance at 0.8656. The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the cross continues to trade at its recent highs. This reinforces the current bullish theme following the latest impulsive rally. Price has recently cleared key resistance at 151.61, the May 2 high and an important bull trigger.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal traded lower last week. Trendline support has been breached - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and the break reinforces a bearish condition. Furthermore, the move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and the sharp sell-off late last week reinforces this condition. Support at $67.21, the May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures started the week on a firm note, extending Friday’s strong rally. The contract is through resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high. Friday’s gains eased recent bearish pressure and the breach of 134.77 signals scope for a stronger recovery. A strong bounce in Gilt futures last Friday resulted in a clear break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. This eases recent bearish pressure for now, and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.0959/1012 High Jun 23 / 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0926 @ 05:36 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 1.0845/04 50-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0667 Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

EURUSD remains below last week’s high of 1.1012 (Jun 22). The latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on 1.0845, the 50-day EMA and a key support. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback, opening 1.0804, the Jun 15 low and 1.0733, the Jun 12 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1012. A breach would resume the recent bull cycle.

GBPUSD TECHS: Primary Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 1.3000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 1: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• PRICE: 1.2731 @ 05:45 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 1.2680 High May 10
• SUP 2: 1.2641/2530 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

The primary uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact. The recent move lower appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 1.2641, the 20-day EMA. The recent break of 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger, strengthens a bullish condition and sights are on 1.2849 next, a Fibonacci projection. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8656 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 0.8581 @ 05:59 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8479 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down. The pullback from Friday’s high confirms recent gains as corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA has been breached, however, price has remained below resistance at 0.8656, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, clearance of 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 3: 144.40 1.382 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 144.64 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 143.87 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 143.48 @ 06:21 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 141.80 Former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 high
• SUP 2: 141.21 Low Jun 20
• SUP 3: 140.92/139.85 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 138.63 50-day EMA

USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The break higher last week retains the bullish technical short-term outlook, with 144.40 the next upside level, a Fibonacci projection point. Price has also added to gains on the recent breach of the top of a bull channel, at 141.80, drawn from the Jan 16 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key short-term support is at 140.92 the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 157.84 2.236 proj of the Mar 20 - 31 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 157.53 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 156.93 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 156.75 @ 06:46 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 155.06/154.05 Low Jun 23 / 20 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 153.08 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 150.35 50-day EMA

The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the cross continues to trade at its recent highs. This reinforces the current bullish theme following the latest impulsive rally. Price has recently cleared key resistance at 151.61, the May 2 high and an important bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 157.53 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key support is at 154.05, the Jun 20 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb - May downleg
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6726/6806 20-day EMA / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 0.6615 @ 07:22 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 0.6663 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 0.6627 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 3: 0.6610 Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally

The recent pullback in AUDUSD resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break of the 50-day average, at 0.6702, suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 0.6627, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6806, the Jun 27 high. Clearance of this level would ease a bearish threat. Key resistance is 0.6900, Jun 16 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Trend Lows

• RES 4: 1.3400 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3355 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.3296 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3226 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 1.3118 @ 08:00 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 3: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022
• SUP 4: 1.2895 Low Aug 25

USDCAD is trading lower today and has resumed its downtrend. Fresh trend lows once again strengthens bearish conditions and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.2992, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3279, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Breaches Resistance

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 134.94 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 134.85 @ 09:59 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 133.64/132.47 20-day EMA / Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures started the week on a firm note, extending Friday’s strong rally. The contract is through resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high. Friday’s gains eased recent bearish pressure and the breach of 134.77 signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Initial support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 133.75. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 132.12, the May 26 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Strong Bounce Considered Corrective - For Now

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.450 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 116.330 @ 05:23 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 115.320 Low Jun 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher last Friday, and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has pierced the 20-day EMA which intersects at 116.252. The outlook remains bearish following recent fresh cycle lows. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead highlight a bullish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 105.550 High Jun 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 105.241 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.130 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 105.085 @ 05:37 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 104.804 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 2: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.597 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend despite the latest recovery. Last week’s fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This extends the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.804 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance to watch is at 105.241, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 97.43 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 97.00 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 96.31 @ Close Jun 26
• SUP 1: 95.32/93.88 Low Jun 23 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

A strong bounce in Gilt futures last Friday resulted in a clear break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. This eases recent bearish pressure for now, and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish - a reversal lower and a break of 93.88, the Jun 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Breaches The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.60 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 117.44 @ Close Jun 26
• SUP 1: 115.78/114.61 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Price has traded through resistance at 117.16, the Jun 16 high and a short-term bull trigger. This reinforces a bullish condition and signals scope for a climb towards the 118.00 handle next. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 114.61, the Jun 15 low. A break would highlight a top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4487.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4344.40/4438.00 20-day EMA / High Jun 16 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4320.00 @ 06:34 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 4262.00 Low Jun 26
• SUP 2: 4241.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, a bearish cycle since Jun 16 resulted in a correction. The contract has breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This level represented a key short-term support and the clear break signals scope for a deeper retracement, exposing 4241.00, the May 31 low and an important medium-term support point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4438.00, the Jun 16 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Latest Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4509.24 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4493.75 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4383.75 @ 06:57 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 4360.26 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4278.23 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 4360.26. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A break would open 4506.23 the top of a bull channel.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $77.24/78.73 - High Jun 21 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $74.65 @ 06:47 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low Jun 20 / Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded sharply lower late last week and a bearish threat remains present. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract continues to trade below $78.73, the Jun 5 high. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.72/75.70 - High Jun 21 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $69.95 @ 07:02 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and the sharp sell-off late last week reinforces this condition. Support at $67.21, the May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1946.4/85.3 - 20-day EMA / High May 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1925.4 @ 07:16 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: $1910.3 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal traded lower last week. Trendline support has been breached - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and the break reinforces a bearish condition. Furthermore, the move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is at $1946.4, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.388/24.530 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $23.007 @ 08:08 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: $22.111 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A sharp sell-off in Silver last week reinforces a bearish theme and gains are considered corrective. The metal has cleared support at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger, to confirm resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for a move towards the $22.00 handle and $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance has been refined at $24.530, the Jun 12 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.