MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Pullback in EUR/GBP Undermines Bullish Theme

Price Signal Summary – Pullback in EUR/GBP Undermines Bullish Theme

• The short-term condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and Tuesday’s move higher is considered corrective. Price last week cleared key short-term support at 3960.75, Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since Feb 2. Eurostoxx 50 futures started this week on a bearish note with price trading lower Monday. This reinforces last week’s breach of a key support at the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low.
• EURGBP traded lower Tuesday. The pullback from 0.8925, the Mar 7 high, undermines the recent bullish theme and exposes key support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. The recent pullback in EURJPY appears to be a correction and the strong rebound from Monday’s low of 141.37 signals the end of the correction. A continuation higher would expose resistance and the bull trigger at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. USDCAD maintains a firmer tone despite the pullback from Friday’s high of 1.3862. The move appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Last week’s rally strengthened the bullish theme.
• Gold remains bullish and the metal is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high has been cleared and the recent rally signals scope for an extension towards $1923.2, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key near-term resistance. WTI futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s strong sell-off reinforces the current bearish theme. The contract has tested key support at $70.86, the Dec 9 low. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development and confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday, retracing Monday’s bull run. The next support is 133.19, the 20-day EMA. For now, the pullback is considered corrective, however, a clear break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures rallied Monday, reinforcing a strong bull cycle with firm momentum. The pullback Tuesday is considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 101.87, a Fibonacci retracement point.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.0839 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0779 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0760 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0740 @ 05:28 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.0640 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 1.0574 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 1.0525 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support

EUR/USD is holding on to its recent gains following the recovery from 1.0525, the Mar 8 low. Resistance at 1.0694 has been breached, the Mar 6 / 7 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.0779 next, a Fibonacci retracement. For now, gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is Monday’s low of 1.0640 where a break would signal a potential reversal. A move lower would refocus attention on 1.0525, the bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 1.2296 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2269 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 1.2204 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 1.2157 @ 05:47 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.2067/2041 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.1908 Low Mar10
• SUP 3: 1.1804 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1761 2.0% 10-dma envelope

GBPUSD is unchanged and holding on to its recent gains. The short-term outlook remains bullish. The pair has breached resistance at 1.2147, the Feb 21 high. The break reinforces a current bullish theme and opens 1.2269, the Feb 14 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2041, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would be a bearish development and signal a top, potentially exposing the key support at 1.1804, the Mar 8 low and bear trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 0.9066 High Sep 28
• RES 3: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8850/8925 20-day EMA / High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8834 @ 06:32 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 0.8778 Low Mar 14
• SUP 2: 0.8767/55 100-dma / Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP traded lower Tuesday. The pullback from 0.8925, the Mar 7 high, undermines the recent bullish theme and exposes key support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8925, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish outlook. This would open 0.8979, the Feb 3 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Finds Support

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 136.58 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: 135.76 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.88 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.74 @ 06:44 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 132.29 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 131.31 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: 129.81 Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 128.09 Low Feb 2

Recent weakness in USDJPY highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback. However, the pair has found support at 132.29, Monday’s low. This level represents an important short-term support. A break would expose 131.31, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bulls, a continuation higher would open the 136.00 handle and signal scope for a test of the bull trigger at 137.91, the Mar 8 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Rebound Extends

• RES 4: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 145.57 High Mar 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 145.10 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 144.56 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 144.03/142.95 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 141.37 Low Mar 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 140.14/11 Low Feb 13 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 139.56 Low Feb 10

The recent pullback in EURJPY appears to be a correction and the strong rebound from Monday’s low of 141.37 signals the end of the correction. A continuation higher would expose resistance and the bull trigger at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the recent uptrend and open 145.80, a Fibonacci retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, a break of support at 141.37 would reinstate a bearish threat.

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6799 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6734 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6676 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 0.6547 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish and recent short-term gains appear to be a correction. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Phase

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977/78 High Oct 13 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3750/3862 High Mar 14 / 10
• PRICE: 1.3693 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.3634 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3547 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone despite the pullback from Friday’s high of 1.3862. The move appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Last week’s rally strengthened the bullish theme. Price cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and has also traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3678, the Monday low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 136.27 76.4% of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 3: 135.80 61.8% of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 2: 135.05 50.0% of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 1: 134.21 Intraday high
• PRICE: 133.98 @ 05:07 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 133.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 132.98 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 13 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 131.98 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 13 rally

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday, retracing Monday’s bull run. The next support is 133.19, the 20-day EMA. For now, the pullback is considered corrective, however, a clear break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 137.24, the Mar 13 high. This is the bull trigger and a break of it would confirm a resumption of the recent bullish activity.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Sharp Reversal

• RES 4: 118.237 76.4% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 3: 117.908 61.8% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 2: 117.382 38.2% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 1: 116.890 Intraday high
• PRICE: 116.740 @ 05:23 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 116.288 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.170 Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: 115.682 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 13 rally
• SUP 4: 114.740 Low Mar 6 and key support

Bobl futures pulled back sharply yesterday and the contract has retraced most of Monday’s strong impulsive bull run. The pullback is considered corrective - for now - however a break support at the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower and a deeper retracement. The average intersects at 116.288. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 118.760, Tuesday’s high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 105.826 61.8% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 2: 105.693 50.0% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 1: 105.393 23.6% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• PRICE: 105.260 @ 05:37GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 105.077 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 14 rally
• SUP 2: 104.960 Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: 104.797 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 15 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures traded sharply higher Monday, extending Friday’s rally and confirming a reversal of the recent bear leg. Yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective - for now - however a continuation lower would threaten the recent bull phase and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 105.077, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at Tuesday’s 106.260 high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 105.49 High Mar 14
• RES 3: 104.95 76.4% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 2: 104.62 61.8% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• RES 1: 104.09 38.2% retracement of Tuesday’s sell-off
• PRICE: 103.55 @ Close Mar 14
• SUP 1: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 102.70 50.0% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 3: 101.87 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 4: 101.13 Low Mar 10

Gilt futures rallied Monday, reinforcing a strong bull cycle with firm momentum. The pullback Tuesday is considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 101.87, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper pullback and undermine the recent bull theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 106.20, the Mar 13 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.49 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 116.33 High Feb 9 (cont)
• RES 1: 115.88 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 113.59 @ Close Mar 14
• SUP 1: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: 111.79 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 110.79 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded higher Monday to extend the reversal from 110.25, the Mar 2 low. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 113.43, the Feb 24 high. The move strengthens current bullish conditions and a continuation higher would open 116.49, a Fibonacci retracement. Yesterday’s pullback is considered corrective - for now. Support to watch lies at 113.02, last Thursday’s high and a gap low on the daily chart.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bull Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance (cont)
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4328.00 High Mar 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4166.70/4232.10 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 4169.00 @ 05:39 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 4071.00 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3916.20 38.2% retracement of the Sep 29 - Mar 6 bull phase

Eurostoxx 50 futures started this week on a bearish note with price trading lower Monday. This reinforces last week’s breach of a key support at the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The break highlights a reversal of the uptrend that has been in place since late September 2022. The 50-day EMA has also been breached and this opens the 4000.00 handle next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 4232.10, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 3972.50/4035.81 High Mar 14 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3960.25 @ 07:03 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3778.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3724.86 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 bull cycle

The short-term condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and Tuesday’s move higher is considered corrective. Price last week cleared key short-term support at 3960.75, Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since Feb 2. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 3822.00 next, the Dec 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4035.81, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Clears Support

• RES 4: $91.48 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.71 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $78.45 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $76.89 - Low Mar 14
• SUP 2: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $71.30 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number

Brent futures remain vulnerable and the contract traded lower again Tuesday. Price has breached a key support at $78.84, the Feb 6 low and pierced $77.76, the Jan 5 low. A continuation lower and clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. The focus is on $76.04, the Dec 12 low and key medium term support. A break of $76.04 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance is $84.00, the Mar 9 high.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Tests A Key Medium-Term Support

• RES 4: $86.05 - High Feb 14
• RES 3: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $78.06/80.94 - High Mar 9 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: $74.90 - High Mar 13
• PRICE: $72.25 @ 07:11 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $70.86/78 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger / Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 3: $66.04 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.60 - Low Dec 3 2021 (cont)

WTI futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s strong sell-off reinforces the current bearish theme. The contract has tested key support at $70.86, the Dec 9 low. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development and confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. This would open the psychological $70.00 handle and levels below it. Initial firm resistance is at $78.06, the Mar 9 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $2000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: $1987.4 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: $1959.7 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1923.2 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - 28 sell-off
• PRICE: $1900.6 @ 06:05 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: $1849.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

Gold remains bullish and the metal is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high has been cleared and the recent rally signals scope for an extension towards $1923.2, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key near-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1849.2, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a top - this would expose the bear trigger at $1804.9, the Feb 28 low.

SILVER TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $22.829 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 2: $22.270 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 1: $21.975 - High Mar 14
• PRICE: $21.620 @ 08:08 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 3: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3 2022

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from last week’s low of $19.904, on Mar 10. The metal is testing resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $21.849. A clear breach of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $22.270, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, Monday’s low at $20.591 marks initial support ahead of the bear trigger at $19.904.