MNI Daily Technical Analysis - Range Breakout In GBPUSD Reinforces A Bullish Theme

Price Signal Summary - Range Breakout In GBPUSD

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, reinforcing bullish conditions. The move higher has also resulted in a breach of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension towards 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4032.81, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish. Price has breached resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of it strengthens bullish conditions and opens 4300.00 next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4146.30, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD recovered from Monday’s session low. The pair is trading higher today and price has pierced 1.0930, Mar 23 high. 1.0930 represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls and a clear break would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0774 (20-day EMA) and 1.0714 (50-day EMA). Short-term weakness in GBPUSD is trading higher today. The pair has breached key resistance at 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of broad range price has been trading inside since mid-December last year. The break represents an important medium and short-term one and signals the next stage of the uptrend that started Sep 26 last year. The focus is on a climb towards 1.2555 next, the top of a MA envelope study. Support to watch lies at 1.2235, the 20-day EMA. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and last week’s gains are considered corrective. However, the 50-day EMA has been tested, it intersects at 133.30 and represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break would alter the picture and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 133.77, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support lies at 132.17, today’s intraday low.
• On the commodity front, trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and Monday’s gap higher strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.69, just above resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher Monday, however, the contract maintains a softer tone following last week’s move lower. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.66. It represents an important pivot level and the break strengthens a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has been tested. A breach of this level would open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 136.77, the Mar 30 high. Gilt futures traded higher Monday and price remains above last week’s low of 102.74 (Mar 31). However, a short-term bearish threat remains present - last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.77. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower towards 102.31 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 105.04, 50.0% of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Challenging Resistance At 1.0930

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 2: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• PRICE: 1.0931 @ 10:23 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 1.0833/1.0788 Intraday low / Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 1.0774 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0714 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0631 Low Mar 20

EURUSD recovered from Monday’s session low. The pair is trading higher today and price has pierced resistance at 1.0930, Mar 23 high. 1.0930 represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls and a clear break would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0774 (20-day EMA) and 1.0714 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Range Breakout

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 2: 1.2555 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2500 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 1.2479 @ 10:06 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 1.2395 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2275/2235 Low Apr 3 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 1.2158 50-day EMA

GBPUSD is trading higher today. The pair has breached a key resistance at 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of broad range price has been trading inside since mid-December last year. The breach represents an important medium and short-term one and signals the next stage of the uptrend that started Sep 26 last year. The focus is on a climb towards 1.2555 next, the top of a MA envelope study. Support to watch lies at 1.2235, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8866/76 High Mar 23 / Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8788/0.8829 Intraday high / High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.8742 @ 10:16 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 0.8730 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP is trading lower on the back of Sterling strength. The move lower shifts attention to support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback, exposing 0.8691, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8829, the Mar 30 high where a break is required to reinstate any developing bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 133.77 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• PRICE: 132.86 @ 06:30 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 132.17/130.76 Intraday low / Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and last week’s gains are considered corrective. However, the 50-day EMA has been tested, it intersects at 133.30 and represents a key S/T hurdle for bulls. A clear break would alter the picture and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 133.77, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger is at 129.64, the Mar 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 downleg
• PRICE: 144.71 @ 06:37 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 143.63 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 142.79 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.79 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 141.05 Low Mar 28

EURJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The cross has recently pierced key resistance at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for gains above 146.00, towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Momentum studies remain in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a likely uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 142.79, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6793 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6764 @ 06:58 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 0.6651/25 Low Apr 3 / Low Mar 24 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD traded sharply higher Monday and in the process breached resistance at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6752 and the break highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher would open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 0.6625, the Mar 24 low. A break of this level would instead signal a bearish reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3584/3618 50- and 20-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.3537 Monday’s high
• PRICE: 1.3438 @ 07:16 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
• SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support

The current bear cycle in USDCAD remains in play and the pair continues to weaken. Last week’s bearish extension resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, the 50% retracement for the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for an extension and note that 1.3491 was cleared on Monday, the 61.8% retracement. The break opens 1.3404, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3537, Monday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 137.85/139.54 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 136.77 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 136.37 @ 05:05 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 134.70 Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures traded higher Monday, however, the contract maintains a softer tone following last week’s move lower. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.66. It represents an important pivot level and the break strengthens a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has been tested. A breach of this level would open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 136.77, the Mar 30 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.170/120.130 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 118.640 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 118.120 @ 05:00 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 117.200 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures have recovered from recent lows but despite the bounce, the contract maintains a softer tone. Price has traded below support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.818. Additionally, support at 117.300, the Mar 22 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen current bearish conditions and open 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 118.640, the Mar 30 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 106.315/695 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 106.095 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 105.760 @ 05:25 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 105.465 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures traded lower last week, resulting in a breach of key support at 105.721, the 20-day EMA. Price has also traded through support at 105.575, the Mar 22 low, where a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 105.336, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial resistance is seen at 106.095, last Thursday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Still Present Despite Bounce

• RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 3: 106.25 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 105.62 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 105.04 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• PRICE: 104.63 @ Close Apr 3
• SUP 1: 103.77/102.74 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

Gilt futures traded higher Monday and price remains above last week’s low of 102.74 (Mar 31). However, a short-term bearish threat remains present - last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.77. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower towards 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 105.04.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.08 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 115.64 @ Close Apr 3
• SUP 1: 114.04 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.17, the Mar 24 high. The short-term outlook is bullish and the recent pullback still appears corrective. However, price has recently traded through support at 114.83, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would instead signal scope for a continuation lower and open 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 116.08, the Mar 30 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: Is Recovering From Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 117-29+ High Aug 26 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 117-14+ High Aug 29 / 30 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 116-06+/117-01+ High Mar 27 / High Mar 24 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 115-21+ High MAr 3
• PRICE: 115-14+ @ 19:26 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 114-09+/07 20-day EMA / Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 113-27+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 113-26 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 113-08+ Low Mar 15

Treasury futures have started the week on a firm note as the contract recovers from last week’s 114-07 low on Mar 29 / 30. A bearish threat remains present following last week’s bearish signals - a shooting star on Mar 24 and a bearish engulfing candle on Mar 27. On the downside, the trigger for a resumption of weakness is 114-07. On the upside, a continuation higher would instead expose key resistance at 117-01+, the Mar 24 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4275.00 High Mar 3
• PRICE: 4267.00 @ 05:47 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 4221.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 4156.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4119.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gain. Price has pierced resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4300.00 next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4156.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4157.75 High Apr 3
• PRICE: 4150.75 @ 06:39 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 4078.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 4032.81 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

S&P E-minis maintains a bullish tone and the contract traded higher Monday. Price has breached resistance at 4119.50, reinforcing bullish conditions. The move higher has also resulted in a breach of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension towards 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4032.81, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Bullish Condition Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.87 - High Jan 27
• RES 1: $86.44 - High Apr 3
• PRICE: $85.50 @ 06:31 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: $82.57 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $78.25 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 4: $76.32 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend

Brent futures remain firm. The contract gapped sharply higher Monday, touching a peak of $86.44 - just above $86.17, the Mar 7 high. The move confirms an extension of the recent recovery that started from the Mar 20 low. A clear break of $86.17 would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high. A large gap has appeared on the daily chart - key support lies at $79.95, Friday’s high and the gap low.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 3: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 2: $83.04 - High Jan 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: $81.69 - High Apr 3
• PRICE: $80.79 @ 06:53 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: $77.60 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $70.98 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and Monday’s gap higher strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.69, just above resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1979.2 @ 07:12 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: $1941.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $1899.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20 2022
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 2: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.193 - High Apr 3
• PRICE: $23.849 @ 07:21 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: $22.828 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: $22.391 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

Silver remains firm following last week’s gains. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective and would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains signal scope for a climb towards $24.637, the Feb 2 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $22.828, the Mar 28 low, ahead of the 50-day EMA which intersects at $22.391.