MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Recovery in WTI Appears to be Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Recovery in WTI Appears to be Corrective

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish - last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high again on Friday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher again Friday delivering another fresh cycle high that confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. This reinforces bullish conditions and the importance of the recent break of a key resistance at the Dec 14 high of 4634.00.
• USDCAD attention is on key short-term resistance at 1.3544, the Feb 5 / 6 high. For bulls, a clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. EURJPY traded higher last week. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.08, the Feb 1 low. A clear break of this level is required to resume recent bearish pressure and open 157.21, the Jan 9 low. A bearish condition in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Recent weakness resulted in a clear break of 1.2597, the Jan 17 low and the base of a recent range. The range breakout strengthens a bearish condition.
• Gold continues to trade above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Recent short-term gains improved a bullish condition and a resumption of the bull cycle would signal scope for a climb towards $2088.5, the Dec 28 high and a key resistance. The recent recovery in WTI futures appears to be a correction - for now. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.29, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
• Bund futures remain in a bearish mode and last week’s move lower reinforces this condition. The contract has breached key short-term support at 133.55, Jan 25 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and confirms a resumption of the bear cycle. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 97.57, the Jan 25 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 97.00 handle.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0932 High Jan 24 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0833/98 20-day EMA / High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.0801 @ 08:01 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.0724/23 Low Dec 8 / Low Feb 5 and 6
• SUP 2: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish. The latest pause in the trend appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. The recent sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 1.0724, the Dec 8 low, and 1.0712, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this key support zone would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance is 1.0932, the Jan 24 high. Initial resistance is 1.0833, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.2661 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2644 @ 08:02 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 1.2519 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

A bearish condition in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Recent weakness resulted in a clear break of 1.2597, the Jan 17 low and the base of a recent range. The range breakout strengthens a bearish condition and opens 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2661, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 0.8572/8590 High Feb 5 and 6 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8542 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 0.8513 Low Jan 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. The breach in January of support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, strengthened current conditions and sights are on 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA - at 0.8590 - is the firm resistance to watch. A clear break of the average would concern bears.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 3: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 150.78 High Nov 17
• RES 1: 149.75 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 149.03 @ 08:04 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 147.57/145.90 20-day EMA / Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 2: 145.59 Low Jan 16
• SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9

The USDJPY trend outlook is bullish following last week’s gains. Key resistance at 148.80, the Jan 19 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started late December and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 149.16, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg, has also been breached. This opens 149.75 next, the Nov 22 high. Key short-term support is unchanged at 145.90, the Feb 1 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.86 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 161.26 High Feb 9
• PRICE: 160.92 @ 08:06 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 158.92/08 Low Feb 7 / 1 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 156.08 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 155.08 Low Jan 2

EURJPY traded higher last week. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.08, the Feb 1 low. A clear break of this level is required to resume recent bearish pressure and open 157.21, the Jan 9 low. This would highlight an extension of a corrective cycle. For bulls, key resistance to watch is 161.86, the Jan 19 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bullish theme and resume the uptrend that started on Dec 7.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6568/6625 20-day EMA / High Jan 30 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6524 @ 08:07 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 0.6469 Low Feb 05
• SUP 2: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The latest break to fresh cycle lows confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 0.6453, the Nov 17 low. Moving average studies have crossed into a bear-mode set-up, strengthening a bearish theme. Furthermore, the recent pause appears to be a bear flag formation. Key short-term resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.6625, the Jan 30 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Directional Triggers Defined

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3544 High Feb 5 and 6 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3456 @ 08:08 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 1.3448/3359 20-day EMA / Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 1.3229 Low Feb 1

USDCAD attention is on key short-term resistance at 1.3544, the Feb 5 / 6 high. For bulls, a clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. Key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a bearish development. 1.3542 and 1.3359 represent important directional triggers.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Key Short-Term Support Has Been Cleared

• RES 4: 137.96 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 137.59 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 2: 136.82 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.59/136.29 20-day EMA / High Feb 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 133.56 @ 08:15 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 2: 132.29 Low Nov 29
• SUP 3: 131.49 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 130.47 Low Nov 24

Bund futures remain in a bearish mode and last week’s move lower reinforces this condition. The contract has breached key short-term support at 133.55, Jan 25 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27. The focus is on 132.89, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of 136.29, the Feb 1 high, is required to signal a reversal. Initial resistance is at 134.59, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 119.228 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.856 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 117.760/118.660 20-day EMA / High Jan 31
• PRICE: 117.050 @ 08:16 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 116.830 Low Nov 29
• SUP 2: 116.390 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 116.110 1.00 proj of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 - Feb 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.820 Low Nov 24

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and last week’s bearish extension reinforces current conditions. The move lower resulted in a breach of key support and a bear trigger at 117.280, the Jan 25 low. The clear break confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27 and opens 116.830, the Nov 29 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.660, the Jan 31 high. A break would be a bullish development.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 106.215 High Jan 31 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 106.070 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 105.907 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.760 Low Jan 25
• PRICE: 105.580 @ 08:17 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 105.530 Low Feb 9
• SUP 2: 105.470 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 105.260 Low Nov 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 105.195 2.00 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces this condition. The contract has breached support at 105.760, the Jan 25 low and a bear trigger. The clear break of the support confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 29 and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 105.470, the Nov 28 low. Key resistance has been defined at 106.215, the Jan 31 high.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 101.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 100.76 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 98.90/100.62 20-day EMA / High Feb 1 and key resistance
• PRICE: 97.89 @ 08:18 GMT
• SUP 1: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support
• SUP 2: 97.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 96.10 Low Nov 30

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 97.57, the Jan 25 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 97.00 handle. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 100.62, the Feb 1 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would instead open 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 121.43 High 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 120.40 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 119.27/77 High Jan 30 / 4
• RES 1: 117.89 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.29 @ 08:20 Feb 12
• SUP 1: 116.44 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Attention is on key support at 116.98, the Jan 25 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bearish cycle and open 115.70, the Dec 8 low. Firm resistance has been defined at 119.27, the Jan 30 high. Initial resistance to watch is at 117.89, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 4844.00 2.00 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4788.1 1.764 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 4753.00/50 High Feb 09/1.618 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• PRICE: 4747.00 @ 08:21 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 4629.10 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4543.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher again Friday delivering another fresh cycle high that confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. This reinforces bullish conditions and the importance of the recent break of a key resistance at the Dec 14 high of 4634.00. The clear breach of the 4700.00 handle paves the way for a climb towards 4753.50, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 4629.10, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 5170.86 2.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 5110.50 2.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5050.14 1.764 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• PRICE: 5042.75 @ 08:22 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 4926.31 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4866.000/4814.84 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish - last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high again on Friday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Recent corrections have been shallow - this highlights a strong uptrend. The focus is on 5050.14, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key short-term support has been defined at 4866.00, the Jan 31 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J4) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $86.03 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: $84.17 - High Jan 29 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $82.86 - High Jan 30
• PRICE: $81.72 @ 08:10 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: $79.46/76.62 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.82 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $72.96 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.99 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Brent futures traded sharply higher last week. For now, the climb is considered corrective, however, a continuation of the rally would expose key short-term resistance at $84.17, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would cancel the recent bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, the trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $76.62, the Feb 5 low.

WTI TECHS: (H4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $86.68 - High Sep 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $85.71 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $82.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $78.14/79.29 - High Jan 30 / High Jan 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: $76.39 @ 08:11 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: $74.62/71.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.56 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.28 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.63 - Low Jun 12

The recent recovery in WTI futures appears to be a correction - for now. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.29, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, support to watch lies at $71.41, the Feb 5 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme and pave the way for a move towards $69.56, the Jan 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2065.5 - High Feb 1
• PRICE: $2025.5 @ 08:12 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: $2015.0/2001.9 - Low Feb 5 / Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold continues to trade above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Recent short-term gains improved a bullish condition and a resumption of the bull cycle would signal scope for a climb towards $2088.5, the Dec 28 high and a key resistance. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would instead refocus attention on $2001.9, where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $22.885 @ 08:14 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for a move to $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this support would further strengthen the bearish theme. On the upside, initial key short-term resistance to watch is $23.534, the Jan 12 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal.