MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Warns of Deeper Pullback

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Warns of Deeper Pullback

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded lower Friday marking an extension of the pullback from 4539.50. The contract has breached its 20-day EMA and this signals potential for a deeper pullback towards the key 50-day EMA at 4405.55. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rallied to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 last week confirming a resumption of the uptrend and this opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing.
• In FX, EURUSD has started the week on a softer note and has breached last week's low of 1.1802, Sep 8 low and an intraday bear trigger. GBPUSD is trading lower this morning. Last week's gains exposed resistance at 1.3892, Sep 3 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade just ahead of recent lows. The yellow metal last week failed to tackle a key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and rallied Friday. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key short-term support at $61.74, Aug 23 low and a break of this level is required to reinstate a broader bearish theme.
• In FI, Bund futures traded lower Friday, reversing Thursday's corrective gains. A weaker tone remains intact following last week's move through 172.00. The break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. The Gilt futures outlook remains bearish following last week's extension lower. Price has cleared former support at 128.11, Sep 1 low and traded through the 128.00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Last Week's Lows

• RES 4: 1.1965 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1945/53 High Jun 281.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1851 High Sep 8 / Sep 10
• PRICE: 1.1792 @ 06:12 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.1758 61.8% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 2: 1.1735/1664 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD has started the week on a softer note and has breached last week's low of 1.1802, Sep 8 low and an intraday bear trigger. This reinforces short-term bearish conditions and opens 1.1758, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.1735, the Aug 27 low. A break of 1.1735 would further strengthen a bearish case and open 1.1664, the Aug 20 low and the bear trigger. Key resistance has been defined at 1.1909, Jul 30 and Sep 3 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• RES 3: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 1.3892 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3817 @ 06:18 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.3798/27 20-day EMA / Low Sep 8 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.3680 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.3602 Low Aug 20
• SUP 4: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD is trading lower this morning. Last week's gains exposed resistance at 1.3892, Sep 3 high. The level remains intact though and a break is required to confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Aug 20. This would open 1.3958 next, Aug 4 high ahead of a key resistance at 1.3983, Jul 30 high. On the downside, 1.3727 marks initial key support, Sep 8 low. A break would instead signal a resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sp 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8560 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8533 @ 06:26 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 0.8520 Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 0.8506/02 Low Jul 19 / 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger

EURGBP traded sharply lower Sep 9, tilting the near-term outlook negative and the cross continues to trade just above recent lows. Key short-term support at 0.8543, Aug 24 low was cleared last week, opening losses toward 0.8506 and 0.8484 further out, the Jul 19 and Aug 16 lows respectively. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8614, the Sep 7 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Range Bound

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
• PRICE: 110.01 @ 06:32 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 109.59/41 Low Aug 31 and Sep 3 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY is firmer this morning however the pair remains in a range. The outlook is unchanged and a near-term bearish risk is present. A key support lies at 108.72, Aug 4 low where a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, the level to breaks is 110.80, Aug 11 high. A breach would instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high. Initial resistance is at 110.45/46.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Soft

• RES 4: 132.43 High Jul 1
• RES 3: 131.77 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 131.09/42 High Jul 13 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 130.34/75 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.71 @ 06:38 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 129.40 50.0% retracement of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 2: 129.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger

EURJPY is weaker following last week's pullback that has left resistance at 130.75 intact, the Sep 3 high and a bull trigger. A deeper sell-off would expose 129.01, a Fibonacci retracement and a move below this level would signal scope for a test of key support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. For bulls, a break of 130.75 is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 19.

AUDUSD TECHS: Probes Its 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7591 61.8% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 0.7534 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 1: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7344 @ 06:47 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 0.7291 50.0% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 2: 0.7248 61.8% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7222/7106 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD has traded below last week's low of 0.7345, Sep 8 low. The near-term outlook is bullish though and dips are still considered corrective. The pair has however probed its 20-day EMA and a deeper pullback would open 0.7291, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, 0.7478, the Sep 3 high, marks the trigger for a resumption of gains that started Aug 20. A break would open the 0.7499/7503 zone.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2834/2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2762 High Sep 8
• PRICE: 1.2678 @ 06:50 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2303 Low Jul 6

USDCAD remains below recent highs but continues to display a stronger bullish short-term condition following the recent recovery from 1.2494, Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2762, Sep 8 high where a break would confirm a resumption of strength and open 1.2834, Aug 23 high and the 1.2949 bull trigger, Aug 20 high. On the downside, clearance of 1.2494 is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is at 1.2583.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
• RES 1: 172.48 High Sep 9
• PRICE: 171.80 @ 05:16 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 171.45 Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 171.30 2.382 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 3: 171.16 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 4: 171.00 Round number support

Bund futures traded lower Friday, reversing Thursday's corrective gains. A weaker tone remains intact following last week's move through 172.00. The break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Attention is on 171.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 172.76, Sep 2 and 3 high. 171.45 is the bear trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 136.150 High Aug 24
• RES 4: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 135.660 High Sep 7 and 9
• PRICE: 135.450 @ 05:02 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 135.350 Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 135.324 1.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 135.230 2.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 135.136 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures outlook remains bearish. Last week's move lower marks an extension of the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on 135.324 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trigger for a resumption of weakness is 135.350, Sep 8 low. Initial resistance is seen at 135.660, the Sep 7 and 9 high where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) S/T Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112.350 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 112.340 High Aug 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 112.270 High Sep 9 and 10
• PRICE: 112.240 @ 04:58 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 112.215 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 112.206 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 112.197 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a bearish cycle despite Thursday's gains - the move higher is considered a correction. Weakness early last week reinforced a bearish condition. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. Further weakness is likely with the focus on 112.206 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 112.270, the Sep 9 and 10 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 130.53 High Aug 5 (cont)
• RES 3: 129.35 High Aug 20 and
• RES 2: 129.05 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 128.42/77 High Sep 7 / High Sep 3 a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 128.02 @ Close Sep 10
• SUP 1: 127.65 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Aug 4 rally (cont)
• SUP 2: 127.50 Low Jun 28 (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 23 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 (cont)

The Gilt futures outlook remains bearish following last week's extension lower. Price has cleared former support at 128.11, Sep 1 low and traded through the 128.00 handle. Note too that the contract has recently cleared its 50-day EMA on the continuation chart. The focus is on 127.65 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.77, Sep 3 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 154.52 High Sep 9 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 153.87 @ Close Sep 10
• SUP 1: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 2: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 4: 151.93 Low Jul 8 (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish despite Thursday's strong bounce. The contract has recently established a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that signals potential for a continuation lower. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 154.52, Sep 9 high. The bear trigger is 152.94, Sep 7 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Corrective Cycle In Play

• RES 4: 4341.40 1.382 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4296.65 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4252.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4162.00 @ 05:53 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 4132.50 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
• SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures rallied to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 last week confirming a resumption of the uptrend and this opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing. Price has since retreated and a corrective pullback is still underway. Attention is on 4138.50, the Aug 26 low. It has been probed and a clear break would expose 4078.00, Aug 19 low and a key support. 4132.50 is the bear trigger, Sep 9 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Break Lower Exposes The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4650.60 1.236 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4591.25 1.000 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4519.75/39.50 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4461.25 @ 07:03 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 4446.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4405.55 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4339.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis traded lower Friday marking an extension of the pullback from 4539.50. The contract has breached its 20-day EMA and this signals potential for a deeper pullback towards the key 50-day EMA at 4405.55. The 50-day average has successfully provided support on a number of occasions this year and still represents a key trend support parameter for bulls. On the upside, initial resistance is at 4519.75, Sep 9.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Trading Above Bear Channel Resistance

• RES 4: $75.20 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $75.13 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $74.84 - High Jul 30
• RES 1: $73.69 - High Sep 3 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $73.43 @ 07:02 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $70.88 - Low Sep 8
• SUP 2: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support

Brent futures are firmer and approaching key resistance at $73.69, the Sep 3 high. Note that price is trading above its bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. A clear break of $73.69 would not only confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend but also confirm a channel breakout. This would strengthen a bullish argument and open $74.84, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, support has been defined at $70.88, Sep 8 low.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $74.77 - High Jul 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $73.52 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $71.44 - Bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high
• RES 1: $70.74 - 764.% retracement of the Jul 30 - Aug 23 sell-off
• PRICE: $70.23 @ 07:05 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $67.12/65.41 - Low Aug 25 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and key support
• SUP 3: $60.81 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.68 - Low May 21

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and rallied Friday. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key short-term support at $61.74, Aug 23 low and a break of this level is required to reinstate a broader bearish theme. Further gains are likely near-term and the focus is on $70.74 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $67.12, Sep 1 low. A break would represent a bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidating Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16 and 76.4% of the Jun 1 - Aug 9 sell-off
• RES 2: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1790.7 @ 07:19 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $1782.5/1774.5 - Low Sep 8 / Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 3: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger

Gold continues to trade just ahead of recent lows. The yellow metal last week failed to tackle a key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would strengthen the current bullish theme and pave the way for a climb towards $1863.3, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at $1774.5, Aug 19 low. A breach of this level would instead signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Pulling Away From Recent Highs

• RES 4: $25.690 - 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $24.867/967 - High Sep3 / 38.2% of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 1: $24.411 - High Sep 8
• PRICE: $23.691 @ 07:28 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $23.346 - Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: $22.878 - Low Aug 20
• SUP 3: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020

Silver is pulling away from recent highs. The metal recently cleared the 20-day EMA and did test its 50-day EMA currently at 24.625. The 50-day average has capped gains so far though. A clear breach of it would strengthen the short-term bullish theme and open $24.967 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The metal has probed $23.758, Sep 1 low. A clear break would signal a resumption of bearish activity and open $22.626, Aug 9 low.