MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S/T Bearish Themes Play Out for Gilts

Price Signal Summary – S/T Bearish Themes Play Out for Gilts

• The trend outlook in S&P E-minis remains bullish and Tuesday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday and is approaching the 4200.00 handle. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in an uptrend. Recent gains have reinforced the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance. The break confirmed a resumption of the trend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• The uptrend in EURUSD remains and the pair is trading above support at 1.0892, the 20-day EMA. The recent break of 1.1033, Feb 2 high, reinforces bullish conditions and maintains the positive trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows.EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the cross is trading at its recent highs. The Apr 11 break of 145.67, Mar 31 high, strengthened bullish conditions and has paved the way for a climb towards 147.71 next, the Oct 31 2022 high. The downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 1.3407, the Apr 4 low has recently been cleared and this maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3275 - mid-February lows and 1.3262, the Feb 2 low.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is $1984.5, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced - a clear break would suggest scope for a deeper retracement and expose $1949.7, Apr 3 low. WTI futures remain in a bull cycle despite the latest pullback. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. This confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 135.36, and key short-term support at 134.70 has been cleared, the Mar 31 low. A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and the contract traded lower Tuesday. Price has recently breached support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022 and Friday’s high
• RES 1: 1.1000 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 1.0969 @ 05:51 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 1.0892 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0797 50-day EMA

The uptrend in EURUSD remains and the pair is trading above support at 1.0892, the 20-day EMA. The recent break of 1.1033, Feb 2 high, reinforces bullish conditions and maintains the positive trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb to 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1185 further out, the Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, a break of the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a deeper retracement.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2683 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2450/2546 High Apr 18 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2419 @ 06:02 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2258 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2191 Low Mar 24

GBPUSD remains in an uptrend the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. The pair has pierced support at 1.2369 the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on last Friday’s 1.2546 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Support below the 20-day EMA lies at 1.2345, the Apr 10 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8872 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 0.8831 @ 06:13 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 0.8806 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8763/8729 Low Apr 11 / 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP remains in a bull cycle despite the pullback from Monday's high. The cross has recently traded above trendline resistance at 0.8849, drawn from the Feb 3 high and 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has been pierced. A clear break of these two levels would open 0.8880, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support lies at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. Initial firm support lies at 0.8806, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• PRICE: 134.35 @ 06:34 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 133.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

The current short-term uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at 134.05, the Apr 12 high has been cleared. This signals potential for a continuation higher and attention is on 134.75, a key Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the current bull cycle does appear to be a correction. However, a break of support at 132.02, the Apr 13 low, is required to signal a reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 149.39 1.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Oct 21 2022 and key resistance
• RES 1: 147.45 High Oct 31 and Monday's high
• PRICE: 147.35 @ 06:45 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 146.08/145.67 Low Apr 13 / High Mar 31
• SUP 2: 144.94 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the cross is trading at its recent highs. The Apr 11 break of 145.67, Mar 31 high, strengthened bullish conditions and has paved the way for a climb towards 147.71 next, the Oct 31 2022 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a rising trend. Key short-term support has been defined at 142.55, the Apr 6 low. Initial firm support lies at 144.94, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6734/0.6806 50-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 0.6719 @ 08:04 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 0.6681/6620 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD remains just below the 50-day EMA, at 0.6734. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, last Friday’s high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 0.6620, the Apr 10 low. A break of this level would be seen as a bearish development and leave the bear trigger at 0.6565 exposed, Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3617 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 1.3490/3530 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3420/3448 Low Apr 17 / High Apr 13
• PRICE: 1.3396 @ 08:17 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.3302 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 2022

The downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 1.3407, the Apr 4 low has recently been cleared and this maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3275 - mid-February lows and 1.3262, the Feb 2 low. Note that the RSI is close to flagging an oversold condition for the first time in over 18 months. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3420, Monday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 136.44/138.09 High Apr 12 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 135.36 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 133.71 @ 05:17 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 133.49 Low Apr 18
• SUP 2: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 135.36, and key short-term support at 134.70 has been cleared, the Mar 31 low. The continuation lower has opened 132.70, a Fibonacci retracement. A move above 138.09, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 135.36.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 118.280/119.190 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.702 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.760 @ 05:21 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 116.730 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

Bobl futures traded lower again Tuesday and the outlook remains bearish. The contract has breached 117.200, the Mar 31 low. This reinforces the bearish theme and the focus is on 116.370, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would open 116.125, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 119.190, the Mar 27 high and the trigger for a stronger short-term climb. Initial resistance is 117.702, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 106.695 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 106.315 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.645/815 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• PRICE: 105.265 @ 05:41 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 105.250 Low Apr 18
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at 105.465, the Mar 31 low, and the contract is trading at its recent lows. 105.336, 61.8% of the Mar 9 - 20 rally, has been breached. The break opens 105.030, the Mar 15 low. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.645, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 103.45 High Apr 13
• RES 3: 103.19 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 102.37 High Apr 17
• RES 1: 101.60 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 101.22 @ Close Apr 18
• SUP 1: 101.04 Low Apr 18
• SUP 2: 100.91 High Mar 9 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: 100.06 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 99.55 Low Mar 8

A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and the contract traded lower Tuesday. Price has recently breached support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger. The break lower has also resulted in a move through 102.00 and 101.12 has been pierced, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally. A continuation lower would open 100.06, the Mar 9 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 103.19, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 1: 114.70 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.97 @ Close Apr 18
• SUP 1: 113.37 Low Apr 18
• SUP 2: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures remain in a bear cycle. The contract has recently breached support at 114.04, the Mar 31 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Attention is on 113.22, the Mar 15 low and 112.89, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 114.70, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is far off at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. A break above the 20-day EMA would highlight a potential bullish reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4354.00 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 4339.00 @ 06:24 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 4270.00 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 4240.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4171.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in an uptrend. Recent gains have reinforced the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance. The break confirmed a resumption of the trend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 4381.50, the Jan 5 2022 high (cont). Initial firm support lies at 4240.60, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4173.00 @ 06:40 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 4148.00/4113.07 Low Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4073.75 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

The trend outlook in S&P E-minis remains bullish and Tuesday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday and is approaching the 4200.00 handle. Sights are on 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4073.75, the 50-day EMA. Initial support to watch lies at 4113.07, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Technical Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $87.49 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $84.49 @ 07:00 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $83.50 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures are trading below recent highs. The trend remains up and price is trading above support. The recent break of resistance at $86.44, the Apr 3 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support has been defined at $83.50, the Apr 3 low and a gap high on the daily chart. Short-term pullbacks, if seen, would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Bullish And Is Trading Above Support

• RES 4: $89.23 - High Aug 25 2022
• RES 3: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 2: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 1: $83.53 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $80.56 @ 07:06 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $79.00 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle despite the latest pullback. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. This confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached. The focus is on $85.01, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at $79.00, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2048.7 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $1993.1 @ 07:22 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $1984.5/1981.3 - 20-day EMA / Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: $1949.7 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: $1936.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is $1984.5, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced - a clear break would suggest scope for a deeper retracement and expose $1949.7, Apr 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $2048.7, Apr 13 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open $2070.4, Mar 8 2022 high. This is just ahead of the all-time high of $2075.5.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14
• PRICE: $25.102 @ 08:07 BST Apr 18
• SUP 1: $25.044 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: $24.305 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.310 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The recent break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $24.305, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.