MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S/T Outlook for EUR/GBP Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – S/T Outlook for EUR/GBP Remains Bullish

• S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday. The contract is trading above 3704.25, Nov 3 low. A breach of this level would expose the key short-term support at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low, where a break would signal scope for a continuation lower. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The break to fresh short-term trend highs this week confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Oct 3.
• EURUSD is trading closer to this week’s high and maintains a firmer S/T tone. Key short-term resistance is 1.0094, the Oct 27 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case. The short-term outlook in EURGBP remains bullish and yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme. The cross has breached resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. EURJPY is consolidating at this week’s highs. The cross found support on Nov 3 at 144.04 and this leaves key support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, intact. A break of 143.80 is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, Oct 13 low.
• Gold found support Tuesday and is holding on to this week’s gains. This week’s rally confirms an extension of the bounce from $1616.7, the Nov 3 low. The yellow metal is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention turns to resistance at $1729.5. The latest pullback in WTI futures undermines the recent bullish theme and suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term. A bearish shooting star candle Monday was followed by a bearish engulfing candle formation on Tuesday.
• Bund futures recovered Wednesday, extending the bounce from Tuesday’s low of 135.76. The primary trend direction remains down and key short-term resistance is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 140.04. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and yesterday’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. The latest shallow retracement appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.0327 1.50 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0094/96 High Oct 27 and a bull trigger / High Nov 8
• PRICE: 1.0033 @ 05:51 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 0.9927/9730 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 0.9705 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 0.9633 Low Oct 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

EURUSD is trading closer to this week’s high and maintains a firmer S/T tone. Key short-term resistance is 1.0094, the Oct 27 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case and again highlight the bullish significance of the recent bear channel breakout that occurred on Oct 25. A continuation higher would open 1.0198, the Sep 12 high. Initial support is at 0.9927, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1738 High Sep 13
• RES 2: 1.1645 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1599 High Nov 8
• PRICE: 1.1411 @ 06:04 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 nand a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0763 Low Sep 29

GBPUSD faded fast into the Wednesday close. Recent price action highlights two important short-term directional triggers. Resistance is at 1.1645, the Oct 27 highland is seen as a bull trigger while 1.1150, the Nov 4 low, marks the key short-term support. A break of 1.1150 would reinstate a bearish theme. The outlook is bullish and a breach of 1.1645 would reinforce this theme. This would open 1.1799, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Clears First Resistance

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Nov 09
• PRICE: 0.8801 @ 06:25 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 0.8685 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

The short-term outlook in EURGBP remains bullish and yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme. The cross has breached resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. For bears, a reversal lower and a move through the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 is required to resume recent bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 147.02/149.71 20-day EMA / High Oct 24
• PRICE: 146.18 @ 06:35 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 145.11 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.91 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

USDJPY is trading closer to this week’s lows and price remains inside its recent range, A bearish threat is still present with resistance at 149.71, the Oct 24 high. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA at 144.91. This average is a key support and clearance of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that momentum studies are still pointing down. For bulls, a break of 149.71 would be a positive development.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.75 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 146.73 @ 06:48 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 145.71 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 144.04/143.80 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 143.80 Oct 24 and key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.78 Low Oct 13

EURJPY is consolidating at this week’s highs. The cross found support on Nov 3 at 144.04 and this leaves key support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, intact. A break of 143.80 is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, Oct 13 low. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 148.40, Oct 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 2 and open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish While Support Holds

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6551 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 0.6416 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD traded higher Tuesday and has this week pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.6510. A clear breach of this EMA would confirm a break of resistance at 0.6522, and 0.6547, the Oct 27 and Oct 4 highs respectively. This would strengthen a bullish condition and extend the bull cycle that started mid-October plus open 0.6600 and above. For bears, a stronger reversal lower and a break of 0.6272, Nov 3 low, would reinstate a bearish threat.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3598/3808 20-day EMA / High Nov 03
• PRICE: 1.3539 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.3388 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 1.3352 50.0% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14

USDCAD traded higher yesterday. A bearish threat remains present following recent weakness. Price has traded below support at 1.3496, the 50-day EMA and 1.3496, the Oct 27 low. A clear break of this price zone would strengthen a bearish threat and likely trigger an extension of the current bear cycle towards 1.3352 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.3808, the Nov 3 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Key Resistance Is At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.04/92 50-day EMA / High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 139.24 20-High Nov 2
• PRICE: 138.62 @ 05:04 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 2: 135.23 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 134.02 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures recovered Wednesday, extending the bounce from Tuesday’s low of 135.76. The primary trend direction remains down and key short-term resistance is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 140.04. A clear break of this EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, a resumption of weakness and a move through 135.76, would resume bearish activity.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger / High Oct 5
• RES 2: 120.358 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 120.080 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 119.480 @ 05:12 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 118.260 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures recovered Wednesday and price remains above this week’s lows. A bearish theme dominates and short-term gains are considered corrective. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting the broader sentiment. Key short-term resistance is seen 120.358, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal. The bear trigger is unchanged at 117.630, the Oct 21 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 107.165/400 High Nov 1 / High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 106.829 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.735 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 106.415 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures are trading above Tuesday’s low. The outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 106.710, the Oct 27 low. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a test of the key support and bear trigger at 106.350, the Oct 21 low. Key resistance is at 107.400, Oct 28 high. Initial resistance is at 106.829, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 104.39 High Nov 4 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 103.31 @ Close Nov 9
• SUP 1: 99.92 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and yesterday’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. The latest shallow retracement appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. This strengthened bullish conditions and has opened 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. Initial support lies at 99.92, the Nov 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Finds Support

• RES 4: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.93 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.54 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 115.08 @ Close Nov 9
• SUP 1: 112.45 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures managed to find support Tuesday and traded higher yesterday. A resumption of weakness would further undermine a recent bull theme and this would expose the next support at 112.07, the Oct 25 low. Key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear resistance at 117.93, high Oct 27, to resume recent bullish activity.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 3883.00 High Apr 21 (cont)
• RES 3: 3857.00 High Jun 6 (cont)
• RES 2: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key pivot point
• RES 1: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• PRICE: 3708.00 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 3593.40/3542.00 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The break to fresh short-term trend highs this week confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Oct 3. This paves the way for continued gains above the 3700.00 level. The next key resistance is at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3542.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Watching Support

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3928.00 High Nov 1 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 3762.25 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 3704.25/3641.50 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday. The contract is trading above 3704.25, Nov 3 low. A breach of this level would expose the key short-term support at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low, where a break would signal scope for a continuation lower. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher and more importantly a breach of 3928.00, the Nov 1 high, is required to confirm a resumption of the recent bull theme. This would open 3981.25, the Sep 14 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Bearish Engulfing Highlights A Reversal

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 1: $95.65/99.56 - High Nov 9 / 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $92.61 @ 05:32 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $91.46 - Low Oct 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support

A strong sell-off this week in Brent futures threatens the recent bullish theme and for now at least, suggests scope for an extension lower. A bearish engulfing pattern on Tuesday and yesterday’s bearish follow through has resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, at 92.48. A clear break of this EMA would open the $90.00 handle and $87.52, the Oct 18 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $99.56, the Nov 7 high.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Candlestick Patterns

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $89.24/93.74 - High Nov 9 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $85.71 @ 06:45 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $85.30 - Low Oct 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and a key medium-term support

The latest pullback in WTI futures undermines the recent bullish theme and suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term. A bearish shooting star candle Monday was followed by a bearish engulfing candle formation on Tuesday. These patterns highlight a short-term reversal. A continuation lower would open $81.30, the Oct 18 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $93.74, the Nov 7 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $1765.5 - High Aug 25
• RES 3: $1745.6 - High Aug 29
• RES 2: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1722.3 - High Nov 9
• PRICE: $1708.3 @ 07:10 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $1667.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 4: $1600.00 - Round number support

Gold found support Tuesday and is holding on to this week’s gains. This week’s rally confirms an extension of the bounce from $1616.7, the Nov 3 low. The yellow metal is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention turns to resistance at $1729.5, the Oct 4 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, support is at $1667.0, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 3: $22.252 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $21.626 - High Nov 8
• PRICE: $20.979 @ 07:56 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $19.866 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 3: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver maintains a firmer tone. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and is holding on to this week’s gains. Price has breached resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. The break of this hurdle strengthens short-term bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. This opens $22.00 and $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support is seen at $19.866, the 20-day EMA.