MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Short-Term Gold Gains Considered Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Short-Term Gold Gains Considered Corrective

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and in the process pierced resistance at 4016.25, the Jul 22 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and signals potential for a climb towards 4145.75, the Jun 9 high. The next key resistance is at 4204.75, the May 31 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and moved above recent highs to confirm a bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend.
• EURUSD recovered from yesterday’s low of 1.0097 and this level marks initial support. Price is still trading below immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. A break above this resistance would once again resume short-term bullish conditions. A sharp drop in EURGBP Tuesday reinforced bearish conditions and yesterday’s move through support at 0.8393, the May 17 low, strengthens the current bearish threat. AUDUSD traded higher Wednesday, extending the recent recovery from 0.6682, the Jul 14 low. The short-term outlook is bullish. A continuation would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069, and potentially 0.7141 further out, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg.
• Gold is firmer and remains above last week’s low of $1681.0 (Jul 21). Short-term gains are still considered corrective, however, any break above resistance at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high, would strengthen a bullish set-up and suggest scope for a stronger bounce. WTI futures are trading higher and above the most recent lows. The contract however continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at $101.03. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures maintain a bullish tone. Gains Tuesday confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract resumed its climb on Tuesday. This highlights an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 117.09, the Jul 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0432 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0386 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0226/78 20-day EMA / High Jul 21
• PRICE: 1.0203 @ 06:15 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.0097 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD recovered from yesterday’s low of 1.0097 and this level marks initial support. Price is still trading below immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. A break above this resistance would once again resume short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0432. A move lower, would instead raise the risk of a return back toward lows below parity, at 0.9952 (Jul 14).

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 2: 1.2210 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2186 High Jul 27 and intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2165 @ 06:30 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.2038 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020

GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday, extending the recent recovery from 1.1760, the Jul 14 low. Attention is on a firm resistance area at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 1.2210. A clear breach would strengthen bullish conditions, signalling scope for a climb towards 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.1890, the Jul 21 low. A break would signal a resumption of bearish activity.

EURGBP TECHS: Trades Through Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8506 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8426 High Jul 27
• PRICE: 0.8392 @ 06:39 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.8376 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support

A sharp drop in EURGBP Tuesday reinforced bearish conditions and yesterday’s move through support at 0.8393, the May 17 low, strengthens the current bearish threat. The move lower clears the way or weakness towards 0.8367, May 2 low. Last week’s high of 0.8585 (Jul 21) has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Pierces Channel Support

• RES 4: 140.71 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 137.96/39.39 High Jul 22 / 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.58/137.46 Intraday high / High Jul 27
• PRICE: 137.14 @ 16:21 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 135.11 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 134.26/27 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 132.17 Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: 131.50 Low Jun 16

USDJPY is trading lower today. The pair has pierced an important support at 135.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low. A clear break of this channel base would strengthen current bearish conditions and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would expose support at 134.27, the Jun 23 low. Initial resistance to watch is Wednesday’s 137.46 high. A break of this level would ease the current bearish threat.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 143.85 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 142.32/60 High Jul 21 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 139.76/140.69 20-day EMA / High Jul 22
• PRICE: 138.35 @ 06:47 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 137.92 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 136.87 Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

EURJPY remains below last week’s 142.32 high on Jul 21. The recent move lower signals the end of a corrective recovery between Jul 8 - 21. A continuation lower would expose 136.87, the Jul 8 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. For bulls, a move above 142.32 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 144.28, the Jun 28 high and a bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 0.7012 High Jul 27
• PRICE: 0.7000 @ 07:06 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.6894/0.6859 20-day EMA / Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020

AUDUSD traded higher Wednesday, extending the recent recovery from 0.6682, the Jul 14 low. The short-term outlook is bullish. A continuation would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069, and potentially 0.7141 further out, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg. Any reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the 0.6682 bear trigger, Jul 14 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial support is at 0.6894.

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14
• RES 3: 1.3171/96 3.0% Upper Boll Band / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2914/47 20-day EMA / High Jul 25
• PRICE: 1.2815@ 08:10 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.2788 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 2: 1.2763 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2664 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains vulnerable and the pair has traded lower again today. 1.2819, the Jun 28 low and the next key support, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and confirm a clear break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is currently at 1.2947, Jul 25 high. A break would ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 157.87 High Apr 7 (cont)
• RES 2: 157.21 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 156.28 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 155.36 @ 05:10 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 153.78/152.27 Low Jul 25 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures maintain a bullish tone. Gains Tuesday confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The focus is on 157.21 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a potential top.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 128.380 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 128.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 127.940 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 127.300 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 126.700 @ 05:21 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 125.541 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a support

Bobl futures outlook remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to recent haighs. Tuesday’s climb confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 127.940, a Fibonacci projection. The contract has defined a key short-term support at 124.030, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Trend Signals Still Bullish

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.020 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 109.930 @ 05:18 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 109.519 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 108.025 Low Jun 21

Schatz futures found support at 108.95, on Jul 21. This level has been defined as a key short-term trend support. A break would signal a reversal. The current uptrend remains intact and Tuesday’s gains reinforce this condition. This signals scope for a climb towards 110.063 and 110.256, Fibonacci projections. Note that price is also trading above the 50- and 20-day EMAs, a bullish set-up.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 118.71 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 3: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 2: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 118.08 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 117.43@ Close Jul 27
• SUP 1: 116.41/115.82 Low Jul 22 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 110.57 Low Jun 21

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract resumed its climb on Tuesday. This highlights an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 117.09, the Jul 6 high. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 118.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 114.08, the Jul 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Support Remain Intact

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 124.79/126.41 High Jul 20 / High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 123.70 @ Close Jul 27
• SUP 1: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Contract Low

BTP futures short-term trend conditions remain bullish. The contract found support last week at 119.57, the Jul 22 low. This level has been defined as a key short-term support and if breached, would highlight a stronger reversal. An extension higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 126.41, the Jul 1 high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 127.79, May 26 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bull Flag Confirmed

• RES 4: 3722.70 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3650.10 61.8% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 1: 3633.00 High Jul 28
• PRICE: 3622.00 @ 06:37 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 3533.20/3467.00 20-day EMA / Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and moved above recent highs to confirm a bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. The short-term outlook remains bullish and the focus is on a recovery towards 3689.00, the Jun 10 high. The key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3467.00, the Jul 18 / 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4145.75 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 4042.75 High Jul 27
• PRICE: 4019.50 @ 07:04 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 3913.25 Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and in the process pierced resistance at 4016.25, the Jul 22 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and signals potential for a climb towards 4145.75, the Jun 9 high. The next key resistance is at 4204.75, the May 31 high. On the downside, initial support has been defined at 3913.25, the Jul 26 low. A break below this level would highlight a possible early bearish reversal signal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Inverted Head And Shoulders

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $114.75 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $108.09 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $107.62 @ 06:49 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $101.50 - Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: $98.17/94.50 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.33 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: $89.60 - Low Mar 15 and a key support

Brent futures have traded higher and price has moved above the 50-day EMA, at $107.00. A clear breach of this average would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards $114.75, the Jul 5 high. Note too that a clear higher would also highlight an inverted head and shoulders reversal on the daily chart. On the downside, support to watch lies at $101.50, the Jul 21 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $108.28- High Jul 5
• RES 1: $101.03 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $98.53 @ 07:11 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $93.01/88.23 - Low Jul 25 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures are trading higher and above the most recent lows. The contract however continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at $101.03. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger reversal. A resumption of weakness would open $88.23, the Jul 14 low and the bear trigger. A breach of this level, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and expose $85.37, Mar 15 low.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: $1817.0 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 3: $1787.4 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16, recent breakout level
• RES 1: $1745.4 - High Jul 13
• PRICE: $1740.8 @ 07:25 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21
• SUP 2: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 4: $1638.0 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold is firmer and remains above last week’s low of $1681.0 (Jul 21). Short-term gains are still considered corrective, however, any break above resistance at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high, would strengthen a bullish set-up and suggest scope for a stronger bounce. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bear trend. A break of $1681.0 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $20.389 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $19.489 - High Jul 7
• PRICE: $19.364 @ 08:20 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.735 - Low May 22 2020

Silver is firmer and has traded above the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective. A stronger bounce however would signal scope for a climb towards $20.464, the May 13 low. The 50-day EMA, at $20.389 marks a key pivot short-term resistance. The broader downtrend remains intact and key support has been defined at $18.146, the Jul 14 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.