MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Short-term WTI Gains Considered Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Short-term WTI Gains Considered Corrective

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded above 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 5400.00 handle next. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5110.00, the May 16 high.
• The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Support at 1.2713, the 20-day EMA, has been cleared and attention turns to the next key support at 1.2656, the 50-day EMA. The trend in USDJPY is bullish and the recovery from the Jun 6 low signals the end of the recent corrective phase. This week’s move higher is a positive development. Note that a key support zone, between 154.92, the 50-day EMA, and 154.41, a trendline. USDCAD is holding on to its recent gains. The pair has breached resistance at 1.3748, 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg. The trend outlook is bullish and last Friday’s gains are a positive development. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, Apr 16 high.
• A sharp sell-off in Gold Friday reinforces a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has cleared support around the 50-day EMA, at 2313.5. The break confirms a resumption of the reversal that started May 20 and signals scope for a deeper correction. WTI futures traded higher Monday. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains bearish. Resistance to watch is $78.38, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this EMA would expose the key short-term resistance at $80.62.
• Recent gains in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appear to have been a correction. The recent sell-off highlights the end of the corrective phase and the move down has exposed 129.37, the May 31 low and bear trigger. Gilt futures traded lower Friday and Monday and remains below last week’s high of 97.86 (Jun 4). For now, the recent climb is considered corrective. The next important resistance to watch is 97.86 and 98.04, a Fibonacci retracement point.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 3: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0830/1.0916 20-day EMA / High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0810 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0769 @ 05:35 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 1.0733 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low May 9
• SUP 3: 1.0675 76.4% retracement of the Apr 16 - Jun 4
• SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1

EURUSD remains soft. The pair traded sharply lower Friday and extended losses on Monday. Price has breached key short-term support at 1.0788, the May 30 low. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper pullback. Sights are on 1.0724, the May 9 low and 1.0675 further out, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance is seen at 1.0810, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2859 1.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2817 High June 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2737 @ 05:46 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 1.2656 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Support at 1.2713, the 20-day EMA, has been cleared and attention turns to the next key support at 1.2656, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would undermine the uptrend and signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is unchanged at 1.2817, the Jun 4 high. Clearance of this level would open 1.2859, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Break Lower

• RES 4: 0.8621 High May 9 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8588 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8541 High May 31
• RES 1: 0.8484/8519 Low May 29 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8456 @ 05:59 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 0.8440 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing

A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact. Yesterday's sell-off and break of support at 0.8484, the May 29 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 0.8408 next, the Aug 24 ‘22 low. 0.8453, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 ‘22 - Sep 26 ‘22 bull cycle has been breached, the break reinforces the bearish theme. Firm resistance is at 0.8519, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 1: 157.71 High May 29 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 157.29 @ 06:37 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 154.92/55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 154.41 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3 and a pivot level
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

The trend in USDJPY is bullish and the recovery from the Jun 6 low signals the end of the recent corrective phase. This week’s move higher is a positive development. Note that a key support zone, between 154.92, the 50-day EMA, and 154.41, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low, remains in place. A clear break of this zone would be bearish and highlight a reversal. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, would resume a short-term uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 173.16 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.89 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 169.27 @ 06:56 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 168.09 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 167.49 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support

The recent move down in EURJPY is considered corrective and the primary trend structure is bullish. Sights are on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch is at a key trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 167.59. A clear breach of this line would highlight a potential reversal. Note this would also confirm a break of the 50-day EMA, at 167.47.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6629/6714 20-day EMA / High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6608 @ 07:54 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD Friday highlights a bearish threat. The move down resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50 -day EMAs. Furthermore, support at 0.6591, the May 30 low has also been pierced. A continuation lower would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open the bull trigger at 0.6714, the Jun 16 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3785 High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3762 @ 07:58 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 1.3658/1.3590 50-day EMA / Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD is holding on to its recent gains. The pair has breached resistance at 1.3748, 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg. The trend outlook is bullish and last Friday’s gains are a positive development. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, Apr 16 high. Key support has been defined at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would instead threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Sell-Off Exposes The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 132.83 High May 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 132.18 High May 17
• RES 2: 131.58/59 High Jun 5 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.84 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.84 @ 05:10 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 129.00 round number support
• SUP 4: 128.12 1.00 proj of the May 16 - 31 - Jun 5 price swing

Recent gains in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appear to have been a correction. The recent sell-off highlights the end of the corrective phase and the move down has exposed 129.37, the May 31 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend and open the 129.00 handle. Key resistance to watch is 131.59, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 116.750 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.420 High May 17
• RES 3: 116.351 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 31 bear leg
• RES 1: 115.813/116.160 20-day EMA / High Jun 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: 115.350 @ 05:06 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 115.180 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 115.060 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 115.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 114.869 0.764 proj of the May 16 - 31 - Jun 4 price swing

A primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The contract did trade through the 20-day EMA but has since reversed lower. Resistance to watch is 116.160, the Jun 4 high and a break of this level would highlight a short-term reversal. For bears, attention is on the key short-term support at 115.060, the May 31 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 105.625 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.572 76.4% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 105.484 61.8% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.460 High Jun 4 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 105.220 @ 05:34 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 105.175 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 104.855 1.00 projection of the May 15 - 24 - Jun 4 price swing

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The sell-off from last week’s high signals the end of the correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up too, highlighting bearish market sentiment. Resistance to watch is 105.460, the Jun 4 and 5 high. For bears, sights are on key support and bear trigger at 105.110, the May 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Reversal Lower Extends

• RES 4: 98.89 High May 16 a key resistance
• RES 3: 98.25 High May 21
• RES 2: 98.04 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle
• RES 1: 96.70/97.86 High Jun 10 / 4
• PRICE: 96.22 @ Close Jun 10
• SUP 1: 96.12 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 95.58 Low May 31
• SUP 3: 95.33 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded lower Friday and Monday and remains below last week’s high of 97.86 (Jun 4). For now, the recent climb is considered corrective. The next important resistance to watch is 97.86 and 98.04, a Fibonacci retracement point. A clear break of the latter would strengthen a bull phase and signal scope for a climb towards 98.89, the May 16 high. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 95.33, May 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.89 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear leg
• RES 1: 116.78/117.62 20-day EMA / High Jun 5 and key resistance
• PRICE: 115.18 @ Close Jun 10
• SUP 1: 115.05 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 114.88 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.58 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.09 1.618 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 27 price swing

BTP futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The latest reversal confirms the end of the corrective phase between May 29 - Jun 5. This has resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, the Apr 25 low. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend, opening 114.88, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance has been defined at 117.62, the Jun 5 high. A break would highlight a stronger short-term bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 5088.00 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 5023.00 @ 06:04 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 4947.00 Low Jun 4 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 4936.00 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4894.90 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4862.00 Low Apr 25

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5110.00, the May 16 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, support to watch lies at 4947.00, the Jun 4 low. A break would be bearish and instead expose 4894.90, a Fibonacci retracement.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 5462.77 2.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5385.50 High Jun 7
• PRICE: 5372.25 @ 07:20 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 5304.08/5205.50 20-day EMA / Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 2: 5155.75 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded above 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 5400.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 5205.50, the May 31 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $84.72/87.77 - High May 29 / High Apr 26
• RES 1: $85.52 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $81.480 @ 07:06 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: $76.76 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: $71.20 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

Brent futures have recovered from their recent lows. The trend condition remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. Initial resistance is $85.52, the 50-day EMA, ahead of key S/T resistance at $84.72, May 29 high. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of important supports. Price has traded through $80.44, May 24 low, and $77.42, 76.4% of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle. This signals potential for $75.63, Feb 5 low.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Recent Gains

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $78.38/80.62 - 50-day EMA / High May 1
• PRICE: $77.75 @ 07:17 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: $72.48 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $66.79 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Monday. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains bearish. Resistance to watch is $78.38, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this EMA would expose the key short-term resistance at $80.62, the May 1 high, where a break is required to cancel a bear theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would open $71.33, the Feb 5 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2342.5/2387.8 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 7
• PRICE: $2301.9 @ 07:21 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

A sharp sell-off in Gold Friday reinforces a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has cleared support around the 50-day EMA, at 2313.5. The break confirms a resumption of the reversal that started May 20 and signals scope for a deeper correction near-term. This has opened $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is $2387.8, last Friday’s high.

SILVER TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $29.111@ 08:03 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: $29.036 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $28.718 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver traded lower Friday and cleared support at $29.381, the Jun 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper short-term retracement. Note that the current corrective cycle is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $28.718. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $32.518, the May 20 high.