MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Softer AUD Exposes Key Support

Price Signal Summary – Softer AUD Exposes Key Support

• S&P E-minis are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. Price is trading above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4109.27. An extension higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A break of this level would resume the bull trend that started Mar 13. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to consolidate. Price is trading above support at 4241.90, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend is intact. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of 4363.00.
• EURUSD maintains a softer tone following the recent pullback and break of former support at 1.0942, the May 2 low. The pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA, at 1.0892, a key support. EURGBP trend conditions remain bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low, has recently been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that began Feb 3 and the focus is on 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high. A continuation lower would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout.
• Gold trend conditions remain bullish. The yellow metal has recently breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high. This confirmed a resumption of the broader bull cycle and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. WTI futures remain below recent highs. The recovery that started May 4 appears to be a correction and the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high.
• Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend. Last week’s print above 137.22, the May 4 high, reinforces a bullish condition and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A continuation higher would open 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures remain above key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 102.46 the May 3 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would signal scope for climb towards 102.63, a Fibonacci retracement.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 1: 1.0954 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0882 @ 05:33 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 1.0805 50.0% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.0737 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run

EURUSD maintains a softer tone following the recent pullback and break of former support at 1.0942, the May 2 low. The pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA, at 1.0892, a key support. This signals scope for an extension lower towards 1.0831, the Apr 10 low and 1.0805, a Fibonacci retracement. The current pullback is considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0954, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2812 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 2: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2541/2641 High May 12 / 11
• PRICE: 1.2529 @ 05:49 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.2445 Low May 12 / 15
• SUP 2: 1.2401 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish. Near-term, the pair remains in a short-term corrective cycle following the pullback from last week’s high of 1.2680, on May 10. A continuation lower would expose the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2401 - a key short-term support. A clear break of this average would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, the bull trigger is at 1.2680.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8785 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8735/56 High May 11 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8688 @ 06:07 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 0.8661 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP trend conditions remain bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low, has recently been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that began Feb 3 and the focus is on 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a key resistance is seen at 0.8835, the May 3 high. A break would ease a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8756, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 137.77/91 High MAy 2 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• RES 1: 136.63 High May 3
• PRICE: 135.97 @ 06:29 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 134.81/133.50 20-day EMA Low May 4
• SUP 2: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 132.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - May 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13

USDJPY traded higher Monday as the pair extended the retracement of the sell-off between May 2 - 4. The next resistance is 136.63, the May 3 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 137.77, the May 2 high and 137.91, the Mar 8 high. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead signal scope for a test of 133.50, the May 4 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Technical Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 150.39 High May 3
• RES 1: 149.27 High May 8
• PRICE: 147.85 @ 06:40 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 146.14 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 145.67 High Mar 31
• SUP 3: 145.55 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 144.88 Low Apr 11

EURJPY support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 146.14, remains intact. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. Recent weakness is considered corrective and moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. A continuation higher would open 149.27 initially, the May 8 high. Key resistance has been defined at 151.61, the May 2 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone For Now

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6712/6818 50-day EMA / High May 10
• PRICE: 0.6676 @ 06:53 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 0.6636 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low May 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high. A continuation lower would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and this would expose 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Rally Last Week Highlights A Short-Term Uptrend

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3568 High May 15
• PRICE: 1.3478 @ 08:04 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.3459 Low May 15
• SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

A strong rally in USDCAD last week has eased recent bearish pressure and the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 1.3517. A clear break of this average would be seen as a short-term bullish development and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low, where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 137.29 High May 11
• PRICE: 136.00 @ 05:11 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 135.63/134.99 20-day EMA / Low May 10
• SUP 2: 134.35 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 133.64 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger

Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend. Last week’s print above 137.22, the May 4 high, reinforces a bullish condition and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A continuation higher would open 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 138.09, the Apr 6 high. On the downside, a break below 134.99, the May 10 low would instead highlight a bearish threat and expose 134.35, the May 2 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Trading Above The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 2: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 119.120 High May 4
• PRICE: 118.410 @ 05:29 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 118.070 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.930 Low May 10
• SUP 3: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

A bullish outlook in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading above support at 117.930, the May 10 low and 118.070, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 119.190, the Apr 6 high and 119.621, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a break of 117.930, would threaten the current bullish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Outlook Is Bullish

• RES 4: 106.533 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.271 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• PRICE: 105.830 @ 05:45 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 105.733/705 20-day EMA / Low May 10
• SUP 2: 105.475 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger

Schatz futures bullish conditions remain intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would open 106.190, the Apr 6 high and 106.271, a Fibonacci retracement point. The recovery from 105.705, the May 10 low, is a positive development and this means that prices have remained above the 20-day EMA. This average is an important short-term support and intersects at 105.733 today.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Key Support Still Intact

• RES 4: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 101.98/102.46 High May 11 / 3
• RES 1: 101.38 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.45 @ Close May 15
• SUP 1: 99.97 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 99.73 Low Apr 19 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support

Gilt futures remain above key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 102.46 the May 3 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would signal scope for climb towards 102.63, a Fibonacci retracement and 102.99, the Apr 14 high. For bears, a break of 99.73 would instead confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Mar 20.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 1: 115.89 High May 11
• PRICE: 115.00 @ Close May 15
• SUP 1: 113.91 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and last Thursday’s gains reinforce this condition. The contract pierced resistance at 115.84, the May 4 high and an extension higher would open 116.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would expose 116.97, the Apr 6 high ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. Weakness below 113.91, the May 10 low, would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4308.00 @ 06:17 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 4241.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to consolidate. Price is trading above support at 4241.90, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend is intact. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4173.25/4206.25 High May 10 / 1
• PRICE: 4140.50 @ 06:47 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. Price is trading above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4109.27. An extension higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A break of this level would resume the bull trend that started Mar 13. Key support has been defined at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this support would instead highlight a bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $79.24 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.38 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $75.40 @ 06:56 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain below the recent highs. The recovery from May 4 is considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The impulsive bearish wave from Apr 12, signals scope for a continuation lower and a test of key support at $70.10, the Mar 20 low. Clearance of this level would reinforce bearish conditions. Initial resistance is seen at $77.38, the 20-day EMA ahead of $79.24, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $71.24 @ 07:07 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $68.48/63.64 - Low May 5 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures remain below recent highs. The recovery that started May 4 appears to be a correction and the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, the recent print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2063.0 - High May 4
• PRICE: $2010.9 07:13 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• SUP 2: $1976.31969.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 19 and key support
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold trend conditions remain bullish. The yellow metal has recently breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high. This confirmed a resumption of the broader bull cycle and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 2022 high ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5, the Aug 7 2020 high. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.492 - Apr 25 low and double top mid-point
• PRICE: $23.802 @ 07:21 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: $23.238 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $22.761 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 4: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver remains bearish and is trading at its recent lows. The metal traded sharply lower last Thursday and confirmed a short-term top plus a double top reversal following the break of $24.492, Apr 25 low. The metal has also breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move towards $23.238, the Mar 30 low. Initial resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Key resistance has been defined at $26.135, the May 5 high.