MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -S&P E-Minis Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis found resistance at yesterday’s high of 4095.00. This leaves initial key resistance - 4099.00, the May 9 high - intact. The reversal lower yesterday signals a resumption of the primary downtrend and attention is on support and bear trigger at 3855.00, May 12 low. A break would resume the downtrend and open 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont). The primary trend direction in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains down. However, the contract is currently in a corrective cycle following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price has probed resistance at 3736.70, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would improve a short-term bullish theme. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is 3466.00.
• In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0341, the Jan 3 2017 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is at 1.0569, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and the pair cleared 1.2406, the May 9 high. This move was reversed on Wednesday as resistance around the 20-day EMA capped gains. The average intersects at 1.2494 where a clear break is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. A deeper pullback would expose key support at 1.2156, May 13 low and the bear trigger. USDJPY remains above initial firm support at 127.52, May 12 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 131.35, May 9 high. A break would open 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. Sub 127.52 levels would expose support at 126.95, Apr 27 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable and short-term gains are considered corrective. The yellow metal traded through $1800.0 on Monday. The focus is on $1780.4, the Jan 28 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures maintain a firm note, following recent gains, and despite the current pullback. The contract has this week breached resistance at $111.37, May 5 high and $113.51, the Mar 24 high. A resumption of gains would open $118.13, the Mar 9 high and the $120.00 handle. Initial support is at $106.50, the 20-day EMA.
• In the FI,Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract has pulled away from recent highs. Resistance has been defined at $155.33 May 12 high. An extension lower would open 150.49, the May 9 and the bear trigger. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains down. The contract has found resistance at 121.07, May 12 high. The bear trigger is at 116.87, May 9 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Stalls Ahead Of The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0758 Low Apr 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 1.0642 High May 5 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.0569 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0499 @ 06:04 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.0429/0350 Low May 17 / Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0284 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD found resistance Wednesday at 1.0564, just ahead of the 20-day EMA, at 1.0569 today. The broader trend direction remains down and a break of 1.0350, May 13 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.0341 next, Jan 3 2017 low and key support. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.0642, May 5 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: 20-Day EMA Marks Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2800 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2638 High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2494/2501 20-day EMA / High May 18
• PRICE: 1.2398 @ 06:11 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.2317/2156 Low May 17 / Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend
• SUP 3: 1.2000 psychological round number
• SUP 4: 1.1903 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - 28 - May 4 price swing

GBPUSD traded high Tuesday but reversed its direction Wednesday as 1.2501 capped gains. Tuesday’s move higher appeared to improve short-term conditions for bulls, however the reversal lower from recent highs, highlights a potential resumption of the primary downtrend. A continuation lower would open 1.2156, the May 13 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of the 20-day EMA, at 1.2494 today, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Above Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8534 High May 16
• PRICE: 0.8474 @ 06:29 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 2: 0.8367 Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP remains above Tuesday’s low of 0.8393. For now, the recent bear leg is considered corrective, however, given the pace of the sell-off, an extension lower still appears likely. Price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this exposes 0.8367, the May 2 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8534, May 16 high. A break would refocus attention on 0.8619, the May 12 high and bull trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• RES 3: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 2: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 130.05/131.35 High May 12 / High May 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 128.86 @ 06:32 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 127.52 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 126.95 Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY traded lower Wednesday. The outlook is bullish though and the pair remains above 127.52, May 12 low. This level represents the first key support. A resumption of gains and a break of 131.35, May 9 high, would open 131.96, a Fibonacci projection. A move higher would also maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and resume the uptrend. Key trend support below 127.52, is 126.95, the Apr 27 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.75 High May 12
• PRICE: 135.03 @ 06:37 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 133.75/132.66 Low May 16 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.51 100-dma
• SUP 3: 132.20 50% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 21 bull phase
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

EURJPY traded higher Tuesday but failed to hold onto its gains and reversed its direction Wednesday. Last week’s low of 132.66 on May 12, has been defined as the key short-term support. The recent recovery still threatens a previous bearish theme. A resumption of gains would open 138.32, the May 9 high. On the downside, a break of 132.66 is required to reinstate the threat of a deeper retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7192 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7135 Low May 6
• RES 1: 0.7054 High May 11 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.7003 @ 06:41 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 0.6873/29 Low May 16 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6784 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6759 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 upleg

AUDUSD found resistance Wednesday at 0.7047. Recent short-term gains are still considered corrective and the primary direction remains down. Last week’s fresh cycle lows marked an extension of the reversal from 0.7266, the May 4/5 high, and moving average studies remain in bear mode condition. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6805 next, Jun 22 2020 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.7054, the May 11 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 1.3185 High Nov 13 2020 and 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3091 High Nov 24 2020
• RES 2: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2982 High May 16
• PRICE: 1.2842 @ 06:53 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.2756 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2714 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD remains below 1.3077, May 16 high, and maintains a short-term bearish tone, despite Wednesday’s recovery. The recent move lower though is considered corrective and the broader outlook is bullish. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.2914, May 2 high, and 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high. The break of the latter marks an important medium-term bullish development and reinforces a positive outlook. Key support is at 1.2714.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Remains Below Its Recent High

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 156.50 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 156.00 High Apr 28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 155.33 High May 12
• PRICE: 152.53 @ 05:09 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 151.87/150.49 Low May 11 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Bund futures have pulled away from recent highs. The trend direction remains down. Recent fresh cycle lows reinforced the bearish condition and confirmed an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving average studies are still in a bear mode condition. A continuation lower would refocus attention on 150.49, the bear trigger. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 156.00.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Primary Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 3: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 128.497 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 128.380 High May 12
• PRICE: 126.850 @ 05:12 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 126.610/126.010 Low May 18 / Low May 6 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures remain above recent lows but have also pulled away from last week’s highs. Price has recently probed resistance at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high. A resumption of strength and a clear breach of 128.310 would signal scope for a test of the 50-day EMA at 128.497. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key support at 126.010.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Eyeing The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 111.095 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - May 6 downleg
• RES 3: 111.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 110.663/110.690 50-day EMA / High May 13
• PRICE: 110.175 @ 05:23 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 109.980 Low May 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

The primary trend direction in Schatz futures remains down and the recent bullish corrective cycle appears to be over. The contract has traded lower this week but still remains above its recent low. A continuation lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 109.980, the May 6 low. The 50-day EMA, at 110.663, remains intact and this indicator represents an important resistance. For bears, a breach of 109.980 would resume the downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 122.72 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 121.84 50.0% retracement of the Mar 1 - May 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 119.78/121.07 High May 17 / High May 12
• PRICE: 119.16 @ Close May 18
• SUP 1: 118.25 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 116.87 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The primary trend direction in Gilt futures remains down. The pullback from recent highs, just above the 50-day EMA, suggests the recent correction higher is over. If correct, a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 116.87, May 9 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 121.07, May 12 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish short-term bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 133.76 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.53 High Apr 28
• RES 1: 131.24 High May 12
• PRICE: 128.79 @ Close May 18
• SUP 1: 127.24/125.54 Low May 11 / Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and the primary direction is down. A corrective (bullish) cycle has recently been established and the contract has traded above a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high. A resumption of strength would signal scope for a move towards 133.53, Apr 28 high. Key support has been defined at 125.54, the May 9 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) 50-Day EMA Provides Resistance

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3775.00 High May 5
• RES 1: 3745.00 High MAy 18
• PRICE: 3606.00 @ 09:32 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 3592.00/3466.00 Intraday low / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3400.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and a major support

The primary trend direction in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains down. A corrective cycle is in play though following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price has challenged the 50-day EMA, at 3736.80, which has so far capped gains. A clear break of the EMA would improve a short-term bullish theme and open 3775.00, the May 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 3466.00.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Reversal Lower Signals Resumption Of Downtrend

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4099.00/4254.88 High May 9 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3919.00 @ 06:57 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 3855.00/3843.25 Low May 12 / Low Mar 25 2021 (cont)
• SUP 2: 3820.25 2.50 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

Recent gains in the S&P E-Minis are considered corrective with the primary trend direction still down. The contract found resistance at Wednesday’s high of 4095.00, resulting in a steep pullback. This signals a resumption of the primary downtrend and attention is on support and bear trigger at 3855.00, May 12 low. A break would resume the downtrend and open 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont). Initial resistance to watch is at 4099.00, May 9 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: $123.44 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $115.69 - High May 17
• PRICE: $110.09 @ 06:49 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $107.79/101.30 - Low May 13 / Low May 11
• SUP 2: $99.25 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

Brent futures have pulled back from Tuesday’s high of $115.69. The pair has this week managed to breach resistance at $114.00, the May 5 high. This signals potential for an extension higher short-term and has opened $115.76, the Mar 24 high and a bull trigger. A break would open the $120.00 handle. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $101.30, the May 11 low. Initial support is seen at $107.79, the May 13 low.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: $121.17 High Mar 7 and the trend high
• RES 3: $120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 1: $115.56 - High May 17
• PRICE: $109.92 @ 07:09 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $106.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $102.30/98.20 - 50-day EMA / Low May 11 and a key S/T lvl
• SUP 3: $95.28 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support

WTI futures started the week on a firmer note and despite a pullback from this week’s highs, a bullish theme remains in place. Price has breached resistance at $111.37. May 5 high and this improved the outlook for bulls. Note that $113.51, the Mar 24 high has also been cleared. A continuation higher would open $120.00 and the key resistance and trend high of $121.17 on Mar 7. Key short-term support lies at $98.20, May 11 low.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1863.0 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1858.8 - High May 12
• PRICE: $1814.7 @ 07:15 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $1787.0 - Low May 16
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 4: $1749.3 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold remains vulnerable despite Monday’s recovery, and is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal has this week traded through the $1800.0 handle. The break opens the next key support at $1784.4, the Jan 28 low. Last week’s breach of $1848.8, 76.4% of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Initial resistance has been defined at $1858.8, the May 12 high ahead of the 20-day EMA at $1863.0.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.388 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.401 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.409 @ 07:56 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish despite the bounce from the May 13 low of $20.464. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at $22.008, the Feb 3 low and a bear trigger. The move lower reinforced the bearish theme and also resulted in a breach of $21.427/423, the Dec 15 2021 low and Sep 29 2021 low. Sights are on $20.000 next. Firm short-term resistance is at $22.401, the 20-day EMA.