MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Intact

Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In S&P E- Minis Remains In Play       

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remains firm. Last week’s recovery highlights a bullish reversal and continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 5730.50, Sep 3 high. Clearance of this level would open 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a reversal lower and a breach of 5451.25, the Sep 6 low, would reinstate a bearish theme. First support is 5583.10, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains. Despite the latest recovery, a bear threat remains present. The sell-off between Sep 3 - 6, resulted in a move below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 4686.53, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle. First resistance is at 4864.94, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition.                                                                                                       
• In FX, EURUSD is starting the week on a firmer note, trading through Friday’s high and extending the recovery that started Sep 11. The break higher exposes a key short-term resistance at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bearish theme and highlight scope for a stronger recovery towards 1.1202, the Aug 26 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.1002, the Sep 11 low. GBPUSD bounced off last week’s lows and the pair is firmer today. The recent move down is considered corrective and this allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A continuation higher exposes key short-term resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. For bears, a reversal lower would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2976. USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has again traded to a fresh cycle low, today. The move down last week resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. 140.00 has been breached and sights are on 139.00 next, 1.382 projection of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing. Firm resistance is at 144.30, 20-day EMA.         
• On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal is starting the week on a firm note, trading once again, to a fresh all-time high. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend The focus is on $2600.0 next. Firm support lies at $2508.5, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a bearish condition. Last Tuesday’s strong sell-off reinforces current conditions and this confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. The most recent bounce appears to be a short-term correction. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.93 next, 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing, ahead of the psychological $60.00 handle. Firm resistance is at $71.06, the 20-day EMA.                                                                                                                                                                                                   
• In the FI space, Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 2. Attention is on the key resistance and bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. Initial firm support lies at 134.08, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a potential reversal. Gilt futures traded higher last week and the contract remains firm with a bull cycle still in play. The latest round of gains have resulted in a break of 100.30, the Aug 14 high. This resumes the uptrend and opens 101.78, a 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing. Initial support lies at 100.64, the Sep 10 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE