MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Trend Needle Points South

Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In S&P E-Minis Remains In Play

• In the equity space, a bearish theme in the E-mini S&P contract remains intact and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. This week’s bearish price action has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and the contract has breached channel support drawn from the Mar 13 low. The clear breakout signals scope for a continuation lower and opens 4368.50 next, the Jun 26 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA - at 4459.03. A bearish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains present and this week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has breached support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 and 15 low. Today’s extension lower has resulted in a break of 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. This opens 4177.40, 61.8% of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 4420.00, the Aug 10 high. Initial firm resistance is 4353.20, the 50-day EMA.
• In FX, the trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of 1.0912, the Aug 3 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jul 18 and opens 1.0834 next, the Jul 6 low and a key level. Price is also trading lower inside a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low. The base lies at 1.0758. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0964, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains in GBPUSD appear to be a correction. The trend direction remains down with the Aug 14 low of 1.2621 marking the short-term bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a test of the next objective at 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and an important support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2819, the Aug 19 high. A break would signal a possible reversal. The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. This week’s gains resulted in a break of 145.07, the Jun 30 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting current positive sentiment. The focus is on 147.49, the 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing. Initial firm support is 143.58, the 20-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bearish and this week’s move lower has reinforced current conditions. Price has breached key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and signals scope for $1865.8, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg. Moving average studies remain in bear mode condition, highlighting current bearish sentiment. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $1937.6, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $1924.0. In the oil space, the uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Firm support to watch lies at $78.69, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper short-term retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $87.43, the 1.382 projection of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing. Moving average studies are in bull-mode condition, highlighting an uptrend.
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and short-term gains are considered corrective. 131.12, the Aug 4 low and 130.60, the Jul 10 low, have been cleared this week. The move strengthens the current bearish theme and marks a resumption of the long-term downtrend. Attention Is on the psychological 130.00 handle next. A break would open 129.69, the 1.00 projection of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing. Resistance is seen at 132.05, the 20-day EMA. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. The contract traded lower Thursday, clearing support at 92.09, the Jul 7 low. This represents an important break and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards the major support at 90.38, the Oct 12, 2022 low on the continuation chart. On the upside, initial resistance is at 93.05, Wednesday’s high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1229 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.0964 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0884 @ 05:41 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 1.0857 Low Aug 17
• SUP 2: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0804 Low Jun 151
• SUP 4: 1.0758 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 15 low

The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of 1.0912, the Aug 3 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jul 18 and opens 1.0834 next, the Jul 6 low and a key level. Price is also trading lower inside a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low. The base lies at 1.0758. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0964, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 1: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.2745 @ 05:57 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 1.2617 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

Recent gains in GBPUSD appear to be a correction. The trend direction remains down with the Aug 14 low of 1.2621 marking the short-term bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a test of the next objective at 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and an important support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2819, the Aug 19 high. A break would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 3: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8660/8669 100-dma / High Aug 11
• RES 1: 0.8607 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8539 @ 06:12 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 0.8515 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8424 Low Aug 25 2022

EURGBP traded lower again Thursday, extending the current bear cycle that started from 0.8669, the Aug 11 high. The cross has breached support at 0.8544, the Jul 27 low and a recent key short-term level. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and signals scope for weakness towards 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. The first key short-term hurdle for bulls is 0.8669.

USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 3: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 146.93 High Nov 8 2022
• RES 1: 146.56 High Aug 17
• PRICE: 145.37 @ 06:26 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 145.11/143.89 Low Aug 15 / High Aug 3
• SUP 2: 143.58 20- and EMA
• SUP 3: 141.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28

The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. This week’s gains resulted in a break of 145.07, the Jun 30 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting current positive sentiment. The focus is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 143.58, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.36 High Aug 17
• PRICE: 158.24 @ 06:45 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 157.42/156.35 20-day EMA / Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 155.54 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

The EURJPY uptrend remains intact. Key resistance at 158.05, Jul 21 high, has recently been breached. This confirmed a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and opens 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. On the downside, initial firm support is 157.42, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6634 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6560 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6480 High Aug 16
• PRICE: 0.6407@ 06:59 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces the current bearish theme. The pair has breached support at 0.6458, the May 31 low and bear trigger. This strengthens the downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA - at 0.6560. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 1.3837 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 3: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 1: 1.3556 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3543 @ 08:00 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 1.3440 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 1.3385 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3344 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair is holding on to this week’s gains. Recent gains reinforce current bullish conditions and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The pair has breached 1.3523, 76.4% of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.3655 key resistance, the May 26 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.3385, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 132.71 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.05 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.67 High Aug 14 and intraday high
• PRICE: 131.40 @ 09:45 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 128.80 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and short-term gains are considered corrective. 131.12, the Aug 4 low and 130.60, the Jul 10 low, have been cleared this week. The move strengthens the current bearish theme and marks a resumption of the long-term downtrend. Attention Is on the psychological 130.00 handle next. A break would open 129.69, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is seen at 132.05, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.340 High Aug 8
• RES 2: 115.813 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.602 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.290 @ 05:16 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 114.970/114.710 Low Aug 16 and 17 / Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 114.550 Low Jul 7 and a key support
• SUP 3: 114.180 Low Mar 7 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support

Bobl futures remain in a bearish mode and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Support at 115.230, the Jul 13 and Aug 4 low, has been cleared and this signals scope for weakness towards 114.550, the Jul 7 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would represent an important technical break. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 115.550, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.085/165 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• RES 1: 105.040 Intraday high
• PRICE: 105.000 @ 09:45 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 104.845/760 Low Aug 16 / 15
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower Tuesday, but have since recovered. Gains are considered corrective and a bearish threat remains present. The breach of 104.805, the Jul 17 low, strengthens a bearish theme. The focus is on 104.741, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would pave the way for weakness towards 104.570, the Jul 6 low and the next key support. Firm resistance is seen at 105.085, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
• RES 3: 95.82 High Aug 10 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 94.22 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 93.05/93.70 High Aug 16 / Low Aug 4
• PRICE: 91.50 @ Close Aug 17
• SUP 1: 91.19 Low Aug 17
• SUP 2: 90.70 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 90.10 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. The contract traded lower Thursday, clearing support at 92.09, the Jul 7 low. This represents an important break and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards the major support at 90.38, the Oct 12, 2022 low on the continuation chart. On the upside, initial resistance is at 93.05, yesterday’s high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 116.86 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 115.03/116.02 50-day EMA High Aug 9
• RES 1: 114.21 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 113.32 @ Close Aug 17
• SUP 1: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.05 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - Jul 19 price swing

A bearish condition in BTP futures remains intact and the contract traded lower again yesterday. This week’s sell-off reinforces current bearish conditions and the move lower exposes the next key support at 112.95, the Jul 11 low, A break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme and open 112.48, the May 29 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 115.03, the 50-day EMA.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U3) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 112-07 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 111-31 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 111-29 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 110-07/110-30 High Aug 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 109-09 @ 16:12 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 109-03+ Low Aug 17
• SUP 2: 109-00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 108-08+ 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The trend direction in Treasuries remains down and the contract traded lower Thursday. This week’s activity has resulted in a break of 109.24, the Aug 4 low, that confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. The move lower signals scope for 108-26 next, the Oct 21 2022 low (cont). Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting a downtrend. Firm resistance is at 110-30, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4353.20/4420.00 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 4210.00 @ 09:51 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 4198.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4122.00 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 4098.10 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and this week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has breached support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 and 15 low. Today’s extension lower has resulted in a break of 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. This opens 4177.40, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 4420.00, the Aug 10 high. Initial firm resistance is 4353.20, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4459.03/4494.76 20- and 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4384.00 @ 05:52 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 4368.50 Low Jun 26
• SUP 2: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

A bearish theme in the E-mini S&P contract remains intact and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. This week’s bearish price action has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and the contract has breached channel support drawn from the Mar 13 low. The clear breakout signals scope for a continuation lower and opens 4368.50 next, the Jun 26 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA - at 4459.03.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.10 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $84.13 @ 06:54 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $82.36/81.26 - Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Brent futures are trading closer to recent lows. The latest retracement is considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bullish. The move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the psychological $90.00 handle. First key support lies at $82.36, the Aug 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
• RES 1: $84.89 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $80.61 @ 06:58 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $78.69/77.39 - Aug 3 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.78 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.82 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.98 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Firm support to watch lies at $78.69, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper short-term retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $87.43, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bull-mode condition, highlighting an uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Is Through Key Support

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1972.4 - High Jul 31
• RES 2: $1946.8 - High Aug 4
• RES 1: $1924.0/37.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $1892.4 @ 07:19 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $1885.1 - Low Aug 17
• SUP 2: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Gold remains bearish and this week’s move lower has reinforced current conditions. Price has breached key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and signals scope for $1865.8, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in bear mode condition, highlighting current bearish sentiment. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $1937.6, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Sights Are On Key Support

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $23.551/25.267 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 20
• PRICE: $22.807 @ 07:23 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $22.227 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower signals scope for $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Initial resistance to watch is $23.551, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible reversal.