MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Resumes

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Resumes And Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat

• In the equity space, the uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce this set-up. Price has traded above 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 5400.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 5205.50, the May 31 low. Recent weakness in EUROSTOXX 50 futures appears to have been a correction. The recovery from 4947.00, the Jun 4 low, signals the end of the corrective cycle and a continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5110.00, the May 16 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support is 4947.00.
• In FX, a bull cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 1.0895, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and a flag formation on the daily chart. Sights are on 1.0933, 61.8% of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg. Support to watch lies at 1.0788, the May 30 low. The trend condition in GBPUSD is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent fresh fresh cycle highs and a print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on 1.2859, 1.236 projection of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing. Initial support to watch is 1.2702, the 20-day EMA. The trend outlook in USDJPY is bullish and the Wednesday rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. The move higher means that for now, the key support zone, between 154.72, the 50-day EMA, and 154.05, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low, remains in place. A clear break of this key zone would be bearish and highlight a stronger reversal. For bulls, a move above 157.71, May 29 high, would resume a short-term uptrend.
• On the commodity front, a short-term bear cycle in {O4} Gold remains in play for now. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open $2452.5 next, the 2.618 projection of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing. The 50-day EMA, at $2311.9, represents a key support. In the oil space, WTI futures have traded sharply lower this week and the contract remains soft. Price has cleared $73.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg. This reinforces the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Sights are on $71.33 next, the Feb 5 low. Initial resistance is at $76.15, the May 24 low and a recent breakout level.
• In the FI space, the latest recovery in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appears to be a correction - for now. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.76, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower would expose 129.37, May 31. Gilt futures have traded higher this week as the contract extends the recovery from 95.33, the May 29 low. For now, gains are considered corrective. The next resistance to watch is 98.04, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. A clear break of this handle would strengthen the current bull phase and signal scope for a climb towards 98.89, the May 16 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 95.33, the May 29 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 08 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0916 High Jun 04
• PRICE: 1.0887 @ 05:58 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.0835 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0788 Low May 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0766 Low May 13
• SUP 4: 1.0724 Low May 90

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 1.0895, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bull trend and a flag formation on the daily chart. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend. Sights are on 1.0933, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 1.0788, the May 30 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Is Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2859 1.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2817 High June 4
• PRICE: 1.2795 @ 06:10 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.2702/1.2645 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

The trend condition in GBPUSD is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent fresh fresh cycle highs and a print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on 1.2859, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 1.2702, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8621 High May 9 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8596 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8549 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8541 High May 31
• PRICE: 0.8508 @ 06:29 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 0.8484 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 3: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022

EURGBP continues to trade above its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish with sights on 0.8484, the May 29 low and the bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and confirm a clear break of key supports at the 0.8500 pivot level, and the zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8541, the May 31 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Zone Stays Intact

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 1: 156.48/157.71 High Jun 5 / High May 29 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 155.89 @ 06:45 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 154.72/55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 154.05 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3 and a pivot level
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

The trend outlook in USDJPY is bullish and the Wednesday rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. The move higher means that for now, the key support zone, between 154.72, the 50-day EMA, and 154.05, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low, remains in place. A clear break of this key zone would be bearish and highlight a stronger reversal. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, would resume a short-term uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 173.41 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.89 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 169.63 @ 07:00 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 168.09 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 167.27 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support

The recent move down in EURJPY appears to be a correction. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and sights are on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch is at a key trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 167.27. A clear breach of this line would highlight a potential reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6659 @ 07:56 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 0.6598 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6465 Low May 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22

AUDUSD is unchanged. A bull cycle that started Apr 19, remains intact and short-term pull backs appear to be corrective in nature. A key support to watch is 0.6598, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement to 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. For bulls, a continuation higher would pave the way for 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 0.6714, May 16 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading In A Range

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3677 @ 08:01 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD is trading within a range. Key support has been defined at 1.3590, May 16 low. A clear break of it would threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would also confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3648, and 1.3610, the May 3 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 132.83 High May 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 132.18 High May 17
• RES 2: 131.76 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.58 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 131.35 @ 05:37 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 130.50 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 129.83 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 129.00 round number support

The latest recovery in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appears to be a correction - for now. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.76, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower would expose 129.37, the May 31 low, and a break of this level would resume the downtrend and open the 129.00 handle.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 116.750 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.420 High May 17
• RES 3: 116.351 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 31 bear leg
• RES 1: 116.160 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 116.020 @ 05:43 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 115.640 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 115.320 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 115.060 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 115.000 Round number support

A primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 116.351, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger extension, towards key resistance at 116.750, the May 16 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 115.060, the May 31 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 105.625 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.572 76.4% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 105.484 61.8% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.460 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 105.430 @ 05:48 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 105.300 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 105.195 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.00 Round number support

The trend condition on Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting bearish market sentiment. The next resistance to watch is 105.484, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 105.110, the May 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 98.89 High May 16 a key resistance
• RES 3: 98.25 High May 21
• RES 2: 98.04 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle
• RES 1: 97.86 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 97.61 @ Close Jun 5
• SUP 1: 97.08 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 96.26 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 95.33 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

Gilt futures have traded higher this week as the contract extends the recovery from 95.33, the May 29 low. For now, gains are considered corrective. The next resistance to watch is 98.04, a Fibonacci retracement point. A clear break of this handle would strengthen the current bull phase and signal scope for a climb towards 98.89, the May 16 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 95.33, the May 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.89 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear leg
• RES 1: 117.62 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 117.53 @ Close Jun 5
• SUP 1: 116.66/13 Low Jun 4 / 3
• SUP 2: 115.67 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 115.54 Low Apr 25 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 114.88 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 27 price swing

BTP futures traded higher again yesterday as the contract extends the recovery from 115.67, the May 29 low. The contract has breached 117.47, 61.8% of the May 16 - 29 bear leg. A continuation higher would open 117.89, the 76.4% retracement point. For now, even though the rally has been an impulsive wave, gains appear to be a correction. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 115.54, the Apr 25 low.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U4) Through The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 110-07+ 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 110-17 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 110-12+ High Jun 5
• RES 1: 110-10 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 110-07+ @ 16:57 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 109-03+/107-31 20-day EMA / Low May 29
• SUP 2: 107-20+ Low May 29
• SUP 3: 107-12+ Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 107-00 Round number support

Treasuries maintain a firmer short-term tone following the recovery from last week’s 107-31 low (May 29), and have traded through the bull trigger at 110-09 next, the May 16 high. The break above here and a confirmed close would strengthen the bullish condition, opening levels last seen in early April. Any resumption of bearish activity would instead refocus attention on support at 107-31.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 5082.00 High May 28
• PRICE: 5063.00 @ 06:21 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 4947.00 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 4936.00 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4894.90 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4862.00 Low Apr 25

Recent weakness in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to have been a correction. The recovery from 4947.00, the Jun 4 low, signals the end of the corrective cycle and a continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5110.00, the May 16 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a break of 4947.00 would instead expose 4894.90, a Fibonacci retracement.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 5462.77 2.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5372.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 5364.00 @ 07:22 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 5283.13/5205.50 20-day EMA / Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 2: 5155.75 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce this set-up. Price has traded above 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 5400.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 5205.50, the May 31 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Impulsive Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $84.72/87.77 - High May 29 / High Apr 26
• RES 1: $80.44 - Low May 24 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: $78.72 @ 07:03 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $76.76 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: $71.20 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

Brent futures have traded sharply lower so far this week. The move down has resulted in the breach of a number of important short-term supports. Price is through $80.44, the May 24 low, and $77.42, 76.4% of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle. The break lower reinforces a bearish theme and signals potential for an extension to $75.63, the Feb 5 low. Initial firm resistance is $84.72, the May 29 high.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $76.15/80.62 - Low May 24 / High May 1
• PRICE: $74.47 @ 07:13 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $72.48 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $66.79 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

WTI futures have traded sharply lower this week and the contract remains soft. Price has cleared $73.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg. This reinforces the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. Sights are on $71.33 next, the Feb 5 low. Initial resistance is at $76.15, the May 24 low and a recent breakout level.

GOLD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2383.8 - High May 23
• PRICE: $2366.7 @ 07:18 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $2311.9 - 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

A short-term bear cycle in Gold remains in play for now. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $2452.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at $2311.9, represents a key support.

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Corrective Phase

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $30.373 @ 08:11 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $29.381 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $28.550 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver is trading closer to its recent lows. The trend remains bullish and the latest move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at $29.797, Apr 12 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $33.880 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA has been breached. The next level to monitor is $28.550, the 50-day EMA.