MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P Maintains Bearish Tone Post-Fed

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Maintain Bearish Tone Post-Fed

• S&P E-Minis maintain a bearish tone. Monday’s sell-off resulted in a break below 3810.00, the May 20 low and bear trigger. The clear break of this support has confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and opens 3697.99 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from recent lows, however gains are considered corrective. The move lower Tuesday resulted in a breach of key support at 3466.00, the May 10 low.
• EURUSD is unchanged but traded in a volatile manner Wednesday. A bearish theme remains intact. Recent weakness that followed a reversal at the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, highlights a bearish threat. A sharp pullback in EURGBP Wednesday is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains and Tuesday’s breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. EURJPY continues to trade below resistance at 144.25, the Jun 8 high, and remains in a corrective cycle. The primary trend is up. The recent rally above 140.00 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that began Mar 7. Moving average studies still point north, reinforcing current conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher towards 144.58 next, a Fibonacci projection.
• Gold remains vulnerable short-term, despite yesterday’s recovery. The yellow metal has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. The WTI futures outlook is unchanged and the uptrend remains firmly intact. For now though, the contract has entered a corrective cycle and price has traded below support at the 20-day EMA.
• Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low, and the 150.00 handle. The focus is on 142.00. Gilt futures outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower this week again confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg, which began May 19.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30
• RES 2: 1.0698/0774 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0523/0596 High Jun 13 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0440 @ 06:09 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0168 Bear channel base, drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD is unchanged but traded in a volatile manner Wednesday. A bearish theme remains intact. Recent weakness that followed a reversal at the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, highlights a bearish threat. The channel top intersects at 1.0698 today. The reversal lower also signals a resumption of the primary downtrend and attention is on 1.0350, May 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0596, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Primary Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.2596 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2410 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2208/2332 High Jun 14 / High Jun 13
• PRICE: 1.2148 @ 06:17 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 2: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020

GBPUSD is bearish and yesterday’s bounce is considered corrective. The move lower this week has resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.2156, May 13 low. The break confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and has also resulted in a move below the 1.2000 handle. Scope is seen for a retest 1.1934, Mar 20 2020 high and Tuesday’s low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.2410, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8903 1.382 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Wednesday’s high
• PRICE: 0.8593 @ 06:26 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 0.8565/8539 Low Jun 15 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8486 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

A sharp pullback in EURGBP Wednesday is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains and Tuesday’s breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The break reinforces bullish conditions and moving average studies continue to point north. The focus is on a climb to 0.8721 next, Apr 26 and Wednesday’s high. A break would resume the uptrend. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8539, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 136.04 1.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 135.59 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 134.36 @ 06:37 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 133.19/131.87 Low Jun 9 / Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 131.63 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 130.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 128.67 50-day EMA

The USDJPY uptrend remains intact. This week's move above 135.00 reinforces the bull trend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are pointing north and indications are that the USD has further to go, despite being overbought. The focus is on the 136.04, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 131.63, the 20-day EMA. A retracement would be considered corrective.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 145.58 High Dec 31 2014
• RES 3: 145.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 144.25/58 High Jun 8 / 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 142.79 High Jun 10
• PRICE: 140.11 @ 06:53 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 139.73/44 1.0% 10-dma envelope / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 138.32 High May 9
• SUP 3: 137.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY continues to trade below resistance at 144.25, the Jun 8 high, and remains in a corrective cycle. The primary trend is up. The recent rally above 140.00 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that began Mar 7. Moving average studies still point north, reinforcing current conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher towards 144.58 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support is seen at 139.44, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7400 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.7144/7283 50-day EMA / High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7063 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 0.6994 @ 06:58 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 0.6851 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD reversed higher Wednesday. Short-term gains are considered corrective though and a bearish threat remains present. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7063, Jun 13 high is seen as an initial firm resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 2: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2995 High June 15
• PRICE: 1.2907 @ 07:12 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.2861/2756 Intraday low / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and key support

The USDCAD outlook remains bullish. A fresh short-term trend high yesterday reinforces bullish conditions and any retracements are considered corrective. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of 1.2945, 76.4% of the bear leg between May 12 - Jun 8. The breach also reinforces a bullish theme and signals potential for a climb towards key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high. Initial firm support is at 1.2756, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 150.97 Low May 9
• RES 3: 149.47 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 147.19/148.51 High Jun 13 / High Jun 10
• RES 1: 145.58 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 144.97 @ 05:58 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 142.25 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 142.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 141.67 2.50 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 141.00 2.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low, and the 150.00 handle. This marked a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Bears haven’t looked back. A resumption of weakness would open 142.00. Firm resistance is at 149.47, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 124.190 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 123.925 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 122.600/123.280 High Jun 13 / High Jun 10
• RES 1: 121.660 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 121.990 @ 05:05 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 120.520 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 120.480 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 120.270 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 120.000 Psychological round number

Bobl futures remain soft despite a short-term bounce, and the primary downtrend remains intact. The recent breach of 124.840, May 6 low confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 120.480 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is still seen at 123.925, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 109.300 High Jun 2
  
• RES 3: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 2: 108.954 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 108.495/108.715 High Jun 13 / High Jun 9
• PRICE: 108.240 @ 05:20 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 107.935 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.430 Low Jul 4 2011 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. Fresh cycle lows earlier this week reinforced the downtrend and confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This also suggests scope for a continuation of the trend. The focus is on 107.662 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 108.954, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 117.49 High May 31
• RES 3: 116.20 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 115.55 High Jun 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 114.09/114.86 38.2% of May 19 - Jun 14 bear leg / High Jun 9
• PRICE: 112.69 @ Close Jun 15
• SUP 1: 111.28 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 111.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 110.59 4.00 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing3.5
• SUP 4: 110.12 4.236 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower this week again confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg, which began May 19. This also maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 111.00 next. Initial firm resistance is seen at 115.55, the Jun 6 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 121.90 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 119.99 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 118.68 High Jun13
• PRICE: 117.81 @ Close Jun 15
• SUP 1: 113.78 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.83 4.382 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and the recovery from recent lows is likely a correction. A bearish theme was reinforced Tuesday as price traded lower, confirming an extension of the downtrend. The move lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 120.00 has been cleared, the focus is on 113.22 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 121.90, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3857.00 High Jun 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 3590.00/3712.20 Low Jun 10 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3554.00 @ 05:48 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 3447.00 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3400.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3379.00 1.00 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from recent lows, however gains are considered corrective. The move lower Tuesday resulted in a breach of key support at 3466.00, the May 10 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards the next key support at 3309.00, the Mar 7 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 3712.20, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Outlook Still Bearish

• RES 4: 4396.75 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 4116.18/4204.75 50-day EMA / High May 31
• RES 1: 3991.51 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3782.00 @ 06:53 BST June 16
• SUP 1: 3708.50 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 3697.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3600.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3578 27 618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintain a bearish tone. Monday’s sell-off resulted in a break below 3810.00, the May 20 low and bear trigger. The clear break of this support has confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and opens 3697.99 next, the 0.618 projection of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 3991.51, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Trend Outlook Is Bullish

• RES 4: $130.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $126.95 - 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $124.42/25.19 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger / High Jun 14
• PRICE: $119.15 @ 07:06 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $117.37 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $112.45 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 3: $111.31 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures continue to pull back from its recent highs. The move lower though is considered corrective - for now. The trend is up and a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Scope is seen for a retest and clear break of 124.42, Mar 7 high. This would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $117.37, is still seen as initial firm support. A break would allow for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $127.65 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 2: $124.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $123.68 - High Jun 14 and fresh cycle high
• PRICE: $116.38 @ 07:49 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $114.60 - Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: $109.16 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: $100.00 - Round number support

The WTI futures outlook is unchanged and the uptrend remains firmly intact. For now though, the contract has entered a corrective cycle and price has traded below support at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 115.66. A clear break of the EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 109.16. For bulls, a break of 123.68, Jun 14 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1891.5 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 1: $1846.3 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1832.1 @ 07:21 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold remains vulnerable short-term, despite yesterday’s recovery. The yellow metal has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance is at $1891.5.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.524 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• PRICE: $21.659 @ 07:25 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $20.896/20.464 - Low Jun 13 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains below its recent highs and Monday’s sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. The metal recently tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break of this level is still required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.524. For bears, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, May 13 low.