MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P Remains Below Recent Highs
Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Remain Below Their Recent Highs
- S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday and the contract remains below its recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5833.22, but is - for now - trading above this EMA. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. For now, a bear threat remains present. The contract traded sharply lower on Oct 15 and has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4947.73. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
- A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The move down this week has resulted in a breach of 1.2959, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. An extension lower would open 1.2890, the Aug 18 low. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. The pair traded to a fresh cycle high on Wednesday, confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has this week cleared the 50.0% retracement of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair traded to a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday. Price has breached 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. The breach reinforces a bullish theme and opens 1.3946.
- Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. This week’s extension reinforces the bull theme. WTI futures are trading above their recent lows. However, a bearish theme remains intact following the Oct 8 - 18 sell-off. A resumption of weakness would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low.
- Short-term gains in Bund futures appear corrective - for now. Tuesday’s move down resulted in a breach of support at 132.75, the Oct 10 low and a S/T bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Oct 1. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery between Oct 10 - 18 has been a correction. Yesterday’s initial weakness resulted in a print below key support at 95.83, the Oct 10 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0969 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0915 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0838 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 1.00822 @ 06:04 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 1.0761 Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and the latest sell-off reinforces this theme. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective. 1.0778, the Aug 1 low and a key support, has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen the downtrend and open 1.0746, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. Initial firm resistance is 1.0924 the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3015/3067 High Oct 18 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2965 @ 06:13 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 1.2908 Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 1.2890 Low Aug 18
- SUP 3: 1.2846 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The move down this week has resulted in a breach of 1.2959, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. An extension lower would open 1.2890, the Aug 18 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 1.3067, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA is required to signal a reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Trend Condition Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8353/8434 20-day EMA / High Oct 3 and reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8346 @ 06:31 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 0.8295 Low Oct 18
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP continues to trade above the Oct 18 low. Price activity on Oct 18 highlights a possible early reversal signal and if correct, a short-term base. However, the trend condition for now remains bearish and a resumption of weakness would open 0.8276, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8353, the 20-day EMA. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.8434, the Oct 3 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 155.22 High Jul 30
- RES 3: 153.66 1.764 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 153.19 High Oct 23
- PRICE: 151.69 @ 06:47 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 150.50 Low Oct 22
- SUP 2: 148.94/147.93 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 4: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. The pair traded to a fresh cycle high on Wednesday, confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has this week cleared the 50.0% retracement of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. The move higher sets the scene for an extension towards 153.40, the 61.8% retracement. Moving average studies have crossed and highlight a bull-mode set-up. Initial firm support is 147.93, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Cycle
- RES 4: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 3: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 2: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 1: 165.02 High Oct 23
- PRICE: 164.14 @ 07:04 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 2: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
A bullish theme in EURJPY is intact. The cross traded higher Wednesday and is holding on to its gains. This week’s rally has confirmed a breach of two important resistance points; 163.49, the Sep 27 high and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. The move highlights a potential stronger reversal. 164.92, 50.0% of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 166.53, the Jul 31 high. Initial firm support to watch is 161.85, the Oct 17 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 2: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 1: 0.6728 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6626 @ 07:41 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 0.6622/14 Low Sep 11 and key support / Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 4: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and price is trading just above this week’s low. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposed 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. This support has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.6576, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6728, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4078 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3869 High Oct 24
- PRICE: 1.3852 @ 08:03 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 1.3786/3728 Low Oct 18 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3667 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair traded to a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday. Price has breached 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. The breach reinforces a bullish theme and opens 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3728, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: 134.88 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.48 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 134.25 High Oct 16 / 18 and key resistance
- RES 1: 133.75 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 133.36 @ 05:40 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 132.58 Low Oct 22
- SUP 2 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 3: 131.66 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 130.80 1.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Short-term gains in Bund futures appear corrective - for now. Tuesday’s move down resulted in a breach of support at 132.75, the Oct 10 low and a S/T bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Oct 1. This opens 132.25, the Jul 29 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 134.25, the Oct 16 / 18 high. A breach of this hurdle is required to signal a reversal. Initial resistance is at 133.75, the 50-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 119.875 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 119.635 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 119.330/119.620 20-day EMA / High Oct 18, key resistance
- PRICE: 19.200 @ 05:54 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 118.620 Low Oct 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Recent gains in Bobl futures are considered corrective and MOnday’s sell-off has reinforced this theme. The move down signals the possible end of the Oct 10 - 18 correction and suggests scope for a test of key support at 118.620, the Oct 10 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear trend. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.620, the Oct 18 high. A break of this level would be a bullish development.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Gains Extend
- RES 4: 107.225 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 107.157 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 107.070 High Oct 24
- PRICE: 106.945 @ 06:06 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 106.760/580 Low Oct 22 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.328 123.6% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 106.209 138.2% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
The recent recovery in Schatz futures is considered corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 106.899. This has also resulted in a print above 107.047 next, 61.8% of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg. A clear break would open 107.157, the 76.4% retracement point. A resumption of bearish price action would refocus attention on 106.760, the Oct 22 low and the first key support.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 100.19 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 98.68 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 97.35/98.10 20-day EMA / High Oct 18 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 96.28 @ Close Oct 24
- SUP 1: 95.68 Low Oct 24
- SUP 2: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 94.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery between Oct 10 - 18 has been a correction. Yesterday’s initial weakness resulted in a print below key support at 95.83, the Oct 10 low. A clear break of this support would resume the downtrend that started Sep 17, and open 95.47, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 98.10, the Oct 18 high. Initial firm resistance is at 97.35, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Reversal Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 122.62 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.50 @ Close Oct 24
- SUP 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and key support
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
Monday’s sharp sell-off in BTP futures highlights a possible reversal of the recent Oct 11 - 18 recovery. It also signals a potential bearish trend threat and exposes the key support at 119.97, the Oct 11 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the recent uptrend and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 122.62, the Oct 1 high. A breach of this level is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5008.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 4927.00 @ 06:24 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 4914.00 Low Oct 16
- SUP 2: 4884.06 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. For now, a bear threat remains present. The contract traded sharply lower on Oct 15 and has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4947.73. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4884.06, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 5106.00, the Sep 30 high. A breach of it would resume the uptrend.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5851.50 @ 07:19 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 5801.00/5749.80 Low Oct 23 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday and the contract remains below its recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5833.22, but is - for now - trading above this EMA. A clear break of this average would open 5749.80, the 50-day EMA. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on 5961.00, a Fibonacci projection.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Theme Intact
- RES 4: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $81.16/47 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.54 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $74.55 @ 07:02 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: $72.50 - Low Oct 18
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
A bearish tone in Brent futures remains intact and - for now - short-term gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would expose support at $69.91, the Oct 1 low, and $68.29, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the key resistance at $81.16, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.54, the Oct 24 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.34 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $70.43 @ 07:13 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: $68.17 - Low Oct 21
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures are trading above their recent lows. However, a bearish theme remains intact following the Oct 8 - 18 sell-off. A resumption of weakness would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2785.3 - 3.382 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2767.1 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2758.5 - High Oct 23
- PRICE: $2727.0 @ 07:17 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- SUP 2: $2673.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2638.2 - Low Oct 15
- SUP 4: $2601.8 - 50-day EMA
Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. This week’s extension reinforces the bull theme. Sights are on $2767.1 next, a Fibonacci projection point, ahead of the $2800.0 handle. Firm support is $2673.2, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $34.903 - High Oct 23
- PRICE: $33.481 @ 08:07 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: $32.963 - High Oct 4
- SUP 2: $32.281/31.081 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: $29.741 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the Oct 18 rally plus this week’s initial extension, reinforce the current trend set-up and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. Scope is seen for a climb towards $35.167, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend for now. Initial firm support lies at $32.281, the 20-day EMA.