MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Spot Gold Bear Cycle Intact

Price Signal Summary – Spot Gold Bear Cycle Intact

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. This is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 4356.07. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, a bearish corrective cycle this week has resulted in a correction. The contract has pierced support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This is a key short-term support and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 1.2624, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY resumed its uptrend Thursday, topping 142.51 - the 61.8% retracement for the Oct-Jan downleg. The break higher retains the bullish technical short-term outlook, with 143.81 the next upside level, the upper band of a MA envelope study. This week’s pullback in AUDUSD has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break of the 50-day average, at 0.6704, suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 0.6679 ahead of 0.6627, Fibonacci retracement points.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal traded lower Thursday. Trendline support was breached last week - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and the break reinforces a bearish condition. WTI futures remain bearish and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this condition. Support at $67.21, May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures traded lower Thursday. Recent gains are considered corrective and resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high, is intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. A strong bounce in Gilt futures Tuesday has eased short-term bearish pressure. Gains - for now -are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. This week’s bearish start to the week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.1012 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.0932 @ 05:34 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.0893 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 1.0853/0804 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair traded higher Thursday and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Price also traded through 1.0986, 61.8% of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg. A clear break of this level would signal scope for 1.1054, the May 8 high, ahead of key resistance at 1.1095, the Apr 26 high. Firm short-term support has been defined at 1.0893, the Jun 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition

• RES 4: 1.3000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 1: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• PRICE: 1.2707@ 05:49 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.2680 High May 10
• SUP 2: 1.2624/2515 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 1.2624, the 20-day EMA. The trend outlook remains bullish. The recent break of 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger, strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.2849 next, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Unwinding An Oversold Trend Condition

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8663 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 0.8603 @ 06:02 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8478 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023

The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and recent gains appear to be a correction. The latest recovery is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Resistance at the 20-day EMA has been breached. A continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.8663. The medium-term trend outlook remains bearish and a break of 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 3: 144.40 1.382 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 143.81 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 143.23 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 143.14 @ 06:14 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 141.21 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 140.32/139.29 20-day EMA / Low Jun 14
• SUP 3: 138.45 Low Jun 1
• SUP 4: 138.22 50-day EMA

USDJPY resumed its uptrend Thursday, topping 142.51 - the 61.8% retracement for the Oct-Jan downleg. The break higher retains the bullish technical short-term outlook, with 143.81 the next upside level, the upper band of a MA envelope study. Price has also added to gains on the recent breach of the top of a bull channel, at 141.70, drawn from the Jan 16 high. Key short-term support is at 140.32 the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 157.84 2.236 proj of the Mar 20 - 31 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 157.53 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 156.93 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 156.58 @ 06:36 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 154.05 Low Jun 20 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 153.09 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 152.31 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 151.61 Low Jun 15

EURJPY traded higher Thursday, once again confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. The move strengthens bullish conditions and extends last week’s impulsive rally. Price has recently cleared key resistance at 151.61, the May 2 high and an important bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the longer-term uptrend and the focus is on 157.53 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key support is seen at 154.05, the Jun 20 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb - May downleg
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6806 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 0.6698 @ 07:59 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 0.6679 50.0% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 2: 0.6701 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6627 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally

This week’s pullback in AUDUSD has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break of the 50-day average, at 0.6704, suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 0.6679 ahead of 0.6627, Fibonacci retracement points. A breach of 0.6627 would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial resistance is at 0.6806, the Jun 27 high. A break would ease the bearish threat. Key resistance is at 0.6900, the Jun 16 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3419 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3355 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.3324 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3270 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 1.3190 @ 09:08 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.3139 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 3: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022
• SUP 4: 1.2895 Low Aug 25

USDCAD is trading closer to this week’s lows despite a modest bounce early Friday. The downtrend remains intact. Fresh trend lows this week strengthens bearish conditions and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.2992, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3324, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.77/95 / High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 133.88 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 132.91 @ 05:15 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 132.8 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures traded lower Thursday. Recent gains are considered corrective and resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high, is intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. The focus is on 132.12, the May 26 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.080/250 High Jun 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.450 @ 05:20 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 115.320 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 116.080, the Jun 20 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 105.550 High Jun 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 105.280 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.120/185 High Jun 19 / 15
• PRICE: 104.840 @ 05:29 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 104.804 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 2: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.597 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a bearish mode. The contract traded lower yesterday to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This extends the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.804 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 105.120, the Jun 19 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 96.63/97.06 High Jun 9 / 6
• RES 2: 96.31 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 95.86 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 95.28 @ Close Jun 22
• SUP 1: 93.88 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

A strong bounce in Gilt futures Tuesday has eased short-term bearish pressure. Gains - for now -are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. This week’s bearish start to the week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 94.21, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A continuation lower would open 93.45, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 95.86, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.33 0.764 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 1: 117.16 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 115.70 @ Close Jun 22
• SUP 1: 115.46/114.61 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high on Jun 16. Price has recently cleared resistance at 116.36, the Jun 2 high and a short-term bull trigger. This reinforces a bullish condition and signals scope for a climb towards 117.33, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.83, the Jun 8 low. A break would be bearish. Pullbacks for now, appear to be a correction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 4487.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4392.00/4438.00 High Jun 20 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4301.00 @ 06:32 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 4288.00 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 4241.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, a bearish corrective cycle this week has resulted in a correction. The contract has pierced support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This is a key short-term support and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement, exposing 4241.00, the May 31 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4438.00, the Jun 16 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) This Week’s Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4503.22 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4493.75 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4403.25 @ 06:41 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 4381.75/4356.07 Low Jun 13 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4269.59 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and this week’s pullback appears to be a correction. This is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 4356.07. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A break would open 4500.21, the top of a bull channel.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $77.24/78.73 - High Jun 21 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $73.45 @ 06:55 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low Jun 20 / Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded sharply lower Thursday. A bear threat remains present and the contract continues to trade below $78.73, the Jun 5 high. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.72/75.70 - High Jun 21 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $68.76 @ 06:59 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain bearish and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this condition. Support at $67.21, May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1951.7/85.3 - 20-day EMA / High May 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1915.7 @ 07:14 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $1910.3 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal traded lower Thursday. Trendline support was breached last week - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and the break reinforces a bearish condition. Furthermore, yesterday’s sell-off marks a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is at $1951.7, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.559/24.530 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $22.323 @ 07:22 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $22.000 - Round number support
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A sharp sell-off in Silver this week reinforces a bearish theme. The metal has cleared support at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger, to confirm resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for a move towards the $22.00 handle and $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance has been refined at $24.530, the Jun 12 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.