MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Sterling Downtrend Resumes

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain soft and the contract is trading lower as it extends Tuesday’s strong bearish reversal. Price has cleared support at 3900.00, the Sep 7 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started mid-August and opens 3819.54, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 Aug 16 bull leg. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are softer and continue to extend the pullback from Tuesday’s high. The sharp reversal lower this week threatens the recent short-term recovery and opens 3429.00, the Sep 5 low.
• In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable and is lower this morning. The pair traded sharply lower Tuesday and continues to trade inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0113 and is a key resistance. For bears, an extension lower exposes the bear trigger at 0.9864, the Sep 6 low. GBPUSD has traded lower today and cleared support at 1.1406, the Sep 7 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 1.1324 next, 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing. USDJPY key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high, remains intact - for now. The trend outlook is bullish and a break of 144.99 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 145.28 and 146.03, the 2.618 and 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. Initial firm support is at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 140.77.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this theme and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early March - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $1735.1, the Sep 12 high. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low. In the Oil space, the WTI futures outlook is bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The recent break of support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. The focus is on $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. Firm resistance is at $91.45, the 50-day EMA.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract has traded lower today. Sights are on the 142.00 handle next. Gilts remain vulnerable and touched a fresh trend low of 104.47 on Wednesday. Attention is on 103.87, 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.0368 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 2: 1.0198/0249 High Sep 12 / 76.4% of Aug 10 - Sep 6 downleg
• RES 1: 1.0113 Bear channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• PRICE: 0.9969 @ 10:16 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 0.9945 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.9931/9864 Low Sep 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD remains vulnerable following Tuesday’s move lower. Price is trading inside the bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0113 and this level marks a key resistance point. A close above it is required to highlight a channel breakout. The trend direction remains down as highlighted by bearish moving average studies. An extension lower would expose the bear trigger at 0.9864, the Sep 6 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Cleared

• RES 4: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• RES 3: 1.1860 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1783 High Aug 29
• RES 1: 1.1590/1738 High Sep 14 / 13
• PRICE: 1.1379 @ 10:16 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 1.1351 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1300 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.1248 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing

GBPUSD remains soft. The reversal lower this week reinforces bearish conditions and signals the end of the recent corrective bounce. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights a broader bear cycle. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up too. Attention is on key support at 1.1412, Mar 20 2020 low that was recently pierced. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is 1.1738.

EURGBP TECHS: Clears The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8768 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8765 @ 10:20 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 0.8715/8605 Intraday low / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8567 Low Sep 6 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8543 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29

EURGBP has recovered from Wednesday’s low and is trading higher again today. The outlook remains bullish and today’s gains have confirmed a break of key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. The climb confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started early March and opens 0.8811, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8605, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 147.25 3.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 2: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 144.99/145.28 High Sep 7 / 2.618 proj of Aug 2 - 8 - 11 swing
• PRICE: 143.34 @ 06:24 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 141.51 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 140.77 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.87 Low Sep 2
• SUP 4: 137.88 50-day EMA

USDJPY is consolidating and trading closer to its recent highs. The trend signal remains bullish with key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. This would open 145.28 and 146.03, Fibonacci projections. Initial firm support has been defined at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 140.77. A break of this 141.51-140.77 zone would highlight a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 147.56 2.50 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 146.97 2.382 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 146.23 2.236 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 145.64 High Sep 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 143.21 @ 06:41 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 142.30/141.37 Low Sep 14 / 7
• SUP 2: 141.08 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 138.69 Low Sep 5

EURJPY remains below Monday’s high. The outlook is bullish and the latest move lower is considered corrective. The recent break of 144.28, Jun 28 high and a major resistance, reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that began in March 2022. This has opened 146.23, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 141.08, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 139.60 - a key support.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 0.7034 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 7 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 0.6970 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6824/6916 20-day EMA / High Sep 13
• PRICE: 0.6678 @ 10:25 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 0.6670 Intraday low
• SUP 2 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6612 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 0.6568 Low May 27 2020

AUDUSD bearish threat remains present. The pair has traded lower this week and breached support at 0.6699, the Sep 7 low. Attention is on 0.6682, the Jul 14 low, which has been pierced today. A clear break of this chart point would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend, strengthen bearish conditions and open 0.6647 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Tuesday high of 0.6916 marks a key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Trades Through Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3421 High Sep 30 2020
• RES 3: 1.3385 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3338 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bear cycle
• RES 1: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• PRICE: 1.3281 @ 10:27 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 1.3074/2954 20-day EMA / Low Sep 13
• SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

A USDCAD bullish theme remains intact and this week’s gains have reinforced this theme. Price has cleared resistance at 1.3209, Sep 7 high and 1.3324, the Jul 14 high and a bull trigger. The clear break of the latter confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and opens 1.3300, the Nov 4 2020 high. Note that MA studies remain in a bull mode set-up, highlighting the positive market sentiment. Key trend support is at 1.2954, the Sep 13 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 148.97 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 148.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 145.82/146.81 High Sep 8 / High Sep 5
• RES 1: 144.56 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 142.85 @ 10:14 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 142.15 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 142.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 140.90 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.67 Low Jun 16 2022 and a key support (cont)

Bund futures remain in a bear mode and the contract has traded to a fresh trend low today of 142.15. Futures are still retracing the bull leg between Jun 16 - Aug 2 and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish theme. The focus is on the 142.00 handle next. Firm resistance is at 146.81, the Sep 5 high. Gains would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 124.670 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 124.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 123.160/123.730 High Sep 8 / High Sep 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 122.510 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 121.180 @ 10:18 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 120.930 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 120.358 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.940 Low Jun 16 and key support (cont)
• SUP 4: 119.782 1.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

The Bobl futures outlook remains bearish and the contract has traded lower today, extending the current bear cycle. Sights are on 120.358, a Fibonacci projection. The contract continues to retrace the mid-June to early August climb. Scope is also seen for a move to 119.940, the Jun 16 major support (cont). On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 122.510, the Sep 12 high. A break would highlight a short-term base.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 109.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 108.845 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 108.045/570 High Sep 9 / 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.840 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 107.385 @ 10:20 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 107.355 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 107.253 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 107.119 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing

The Schatz futures trend direction remains down and the contract has traded to a fresh trend low once again today, confirming an extension of the bear cycle. This also maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average studies in a bear mode position. The focus is on 107.253, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 108.045, the Sep 9 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 112.43 High Aug 22
• RES 3: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 2: 109.47/110.85 High Aug 31 / 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 106.84/107.93 High Sep 8 / High Sep 1
• PRICE: 105.33 @ Close Sep 15
• SUP 1: 104.47 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 103.87 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 103.05 2.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 102.54 2.382 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures traded to a fresh trend low Wednesday of 104.47. The contract remains vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August signals scope for an extension. The breach on Aug 30 of 108.94, Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 103.87, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 107.93, the Sep 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Consolidation Marks A Pause In The Downtrend

• RES 4: 122.59 High Aug 19
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.06 High Sep 8
• PRICE: 116.80 @ Close Sep 15
• SUP 1: 115.60 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 111.62 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 5 price swing

BTP futures are consolidating. The trend remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights the current bearish theme as the contract continues to retrace the mid-June - early August rally. The focus is on the 115.00 handle next ahead of the major support at 113.78, Jun 14 low (cont). On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 119.06, the Sep 8 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 119-01 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 118-00 High Aug 26
• RES 2: 117-24 50 day EMA values
• RES 1: 116-04+/26 High Sep 13 / 2
• PRICE: 114-18 @ 19:22 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 114-12+ Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 114-06 Low Jun 14 and a key support
• SUP 3: 114-00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 113-19 Low Sep 19 2019 (cont)

Treasuries remain soft and the contract traded lower Thursday. This marks an extension of the current bear cycle and a resumption of the trend that started Aug 2. Sights are on the key support at 114-06, the Jun 14 low. A break of this level would confirm an important technical break and highlight a resumption of the broader downtrend, exposing the 114-00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 116-26, the Sep 2 high.EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Reversal Extends

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3581.30/3685.00 20-day EMA / High Sep 13
• PRICE: 3495.00 @ 10:22 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 3481.00/3429.00 Intraday low / Low Sep 5 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3386.00 Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 3362.00 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are softer and continue to extend the pullback from Tuesday’s high. The sharp reversal lower this week threatens the recent short-term recovery and signals the end of what has likely been a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would refocus attention on a key short-term support at 3429.00, the Sep 5 low. Tuesday’s high of 3685.00 is the short-term bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 4345.75 High Aug 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4313.50 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 4041.51/4175.00/47 20-day EMA / High Sep 13
• PRICE: 3888.50 @ 07:02 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 3851.50 Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 3819.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 Aug 16 bull leg
• SUP 3: 3741.75 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3657.00 Low Jun 17 and a major support

S&P E-Minis remain soft and the contract is trading lower as it extends Tuesday’s strong bearish reversal. Price has cleared key short-term support at 3900.00, the Sep 7 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started mid-August and paves the way for a move towards 3819.54, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4175.00, the Sep 13 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $103.86 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $96.35 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $95.80 - High Sep 14
• PRICE: $91.34 @ 07:09 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $90.03/87.24 - Low Sep 15 / 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $86.54 - Low Mar 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $82.59 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $80.71 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing

The Brent futures outlook remains bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The recent break of $89.06, Jul 14 low and a bear trigger highlights a resumption of the downtrend that started early August and has opened $86.54, the Mar 9 low. The bear trigger is $87.24, the Sep 8 low. On the upside firm resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $96.35.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $91.45/97.66 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• RES 1: $90.19 - High Sep 14
• PRICE: $85.52 @ 07:54 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $81.20 - Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $79.83 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 3: $78.54 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $76.47 - Low Jan 24

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The recent break of support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and also highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. The focus is on $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. The next firm resistance is at $91.45, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 3: $1765.5 - High Aug 25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1746.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1688.9/1735.1 - Low Sep 1 / High Sep 12
• PRICE: $1662.8 @ 10:41 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $1654.2 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1640.9 - Low Aug 8 2020
• SUP 3: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold remains in a clear downtrend and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early March - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $1735.1, the Sep 12 high. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low.

SILVER TECHS: Reversal Extends

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $20.014 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $118.912 @ 10:47 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $18.782/17.562 - Intraday low / Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

Silver has pulled back from its recent highs. Today’s print below $18.845, Sep 12 low, signals the end of the recent corrective recovery between Sep 1 - 12. An extension lower would pave the way for a move towards the key support and bear trigger at $17.562, the Sep 1 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. A break of $20.014, Sep 12 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.