MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stock Weakness Looks Corrective
Price Signal Summary – Stock Weakness Still Looks Corrective
- S&P E-Minis faded sharply off their recent highs last week. The move down appears corrective - for now - and a bullish theme is intact. Attention is on the key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the primary longer-term uptrend. The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and last week’s climb to a new alltime high on the continuation contract, reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up.
- A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. Fresh gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has again traded to a fresh short-term cycle low, today. The move down has exposed the next key support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low. USDCAD continues to trade toward the weaker end of its recent range. A bear theme remains intact. The pair has cleared key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low.
- A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade at its recent highs. Fresh recent highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower last week, and today’s fresh short-term cycle low, reinforces a bear condition. Support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen the downtrend and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA.
- The rebound in Bund futures on Friday appears to be corrective - for now. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures has moderated, but remains the underlying theme, meaning recent weakness still appears corrective for now. Initial resistance to watch is 93.50, the Feb 13 high. A break of this level would highlight an early bullish reversal signal.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Resistance
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0516 @ 05:58 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 1.00436/01 50-day EMA / Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.0373 Low Feb 13
- SUP 3: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
- SUP 4: 1.0280 Low Feb 10 and a key support
The current bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high, today. Attention is on resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and a reversal trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. For bears, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this support would signal a potential reversal.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence
- RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 3: 1.2805 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2691 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.2672 @ 06:11 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 1.2563 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.2518 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. Fresh gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. An extension would strengthen the bullish condition and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2518, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8361 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8337 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8324 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8296 @ 06:40 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 0.8265/8248 Low Feb 21 / 3 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP is trading closer to its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would expose the key short-term support at 0.8248, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a short-term bearish condition. Note that the early February bounce continues to highlight a possible bullish reversal theme. Clearance of 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance, would be a bullish development.
USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 153.70 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 152.62 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 150.74 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 149.46 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 148.85 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 4: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has again traded to a fresh short-term cycle low, today. The move down has exposed the next key support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish condition and pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 152.62, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Support
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 160.38 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 159.04 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 157.08 @ 07:19 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 155.82/155.61 Low Feb 21 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY last week, pulled back further from its recent high. Attention is on key short-term support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish break and set the scene for an extension towards 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is 159.04, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is unchanged at 160.38, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The 100-DMA
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6409 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 0.6364 @ 08:11 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 0.6314/6231 50-day EMA / Low Feb 10
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
A bullish condition in AUDUSD remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce the current bullish set-up. Sights are on key resistance at 0.6410/14 - the 100-dma and the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg respectively. A clear break of both levels would set the scene for the next leg higher for the pair, making 0.6429 the next target, the Dec 12 ‘24 high. The 50-day EMA undercuts as support, crossing at 0.6314.
USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme Intact
- RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 1.4204 @ 08:15 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD continues to trade toward the weaker end of its recent range. A bear theme remains intact. The pair has cleared key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. This strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension of the current downtrend - a correction. Sights are on 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early reversal signal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 132.97 High Feb 13 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 132.90 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 132.29 @ 05:23 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 131.26 Low Feb 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
The rebound in Bund futures on Friday appears to be corrective - for now. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. A break of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Feb 5.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 117.600 High Feb 13 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 117.530 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 117.350 @ 05:46 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 116.870 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
A bear threat in Bobl futures remains present despite the recent recovery - a correction. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and attention is on key short-term resistance at 117.600, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 116.870, the Feb 19 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 ‘24 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.045 High Feb 3 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 106.975 High Feb 10
- RES 1: 106.855 High Feb 12 / 21 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 106.775@ 06:03 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 106.630 Low Feb 20 and a key near term support
- SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, marking the pullback from the early February highs as corrective - for now. However, recent weakness also highlights a bear threat and support to watch lies at 106.630, the Feb 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume a bear cycle and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, initial firm resistance to watch is 106.855, the Feb 12 high. A break would be bullish.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Trading Below Resistance
- RES 4: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 94.35 High Feb 6 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 93.50 High Feb 13
- RES 1: 92.83 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 92.41 @ Close Feb 21
- SUP 1: 91.78 Low Feb 20
- SUP 2: 91.52 Low Jan 24 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 4: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
A bull cycle in Gilt futures has moderated, but remains the underlying theme, meaning recent weakness still appears corrective for now. Initial resistance to watch is 93.50, the Feb 13 high. A break of this level would highlight an early bullish reversal signal and refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $94.35, the Feb 6 high. On the downside a continuation lower would instead expose the next important support at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Support Stays Intact For Now
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- RES 1: 120.47 High Feb 13
- PRICE: 119.82 @ Close Feb 21
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. A stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle. First support lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5579.71 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 5574.57 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 1: 5555.00 Alltime high (cont), Feb 18
- PRICE: 5507.00 @ 06:35 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 5437.00/5379.97 Low Feb 21 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5295.00 Low Feb 6
- SUP 3: 5219.84 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and last week’s climb to a new alltime high on the continuation contract, reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5574.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5379.97, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 6088.20/6166.50 20-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6054.25 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 6014.00 Low Feb 10
- SUP 2: 5935.50 Low Feb 3
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
S&P E-Minis faded sharply off their recent highs last week. The move down appears corrective - for now - and a bullish theme is intact. Attention is on the key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the primary longer-term uptrend. On the downside, initial key near-term support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A breach would highlight a bearish development and expose 5935.50, the Feb 3 low.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (J5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $77.34/81.20 - High Feb 3 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $74.45 @ 07:14 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: $74.06 - Low Feb 13 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support
A bear theme in Brent futures remains intact for now and Friday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $77.34, the Feb 3 high. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a bullish development. Attention is on support at $74.10, the Feb 6 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jan 15, and signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards $71.25, the Dec 20 low.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Challenging Key Short-Term Support
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $74.06/77.86 - High Feb 3 / High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $70.27 @ 07:25 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: $70.20/69.80 - Low Feb 6 and bear trigger / Intraday low
- SUP 2: $67.75 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower last week, and today’s fresh short-term cycle low, reinforces a bear condition. Support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen the downtrend and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $74.06, the Feb 3 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bull theme.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2974.5 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2954.8 - High Feb 20
- PRICE: $2940.2 @ 07:29 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: $2916.9 - Low Feb 21
- SUP 2: $2867.1 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2834.3 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 4: $2783.1 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade at its recent highs. Fresh recent highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2867.1, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $32.550 @ 08:18 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: $31.979/343 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
A bull theme in Silver remains intact and the metal is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.343, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.