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Price Signal Summary - USD Remains Soft

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis have traded to fresh cycle highs early this week, before fading into the Monday close. The focus remains on 4239.26, 1.764 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing and the 4300.00 handle. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have cleared the psychological hurdle of 4000.00. The trend remains up and the focus is on 4099.00 1.00 projection of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing.
  • In FX, EURUSD maintains a firmer tone following Friday's gains and the break of 1.2150, Apr 29 high. The focus is on 1.2184, Feb 26 high and 1.2243, Feb 25 high. GBPUSD is firm today and extending Friday's rally. A number of immediate resistance levels have been cleared. The focus is on 1.4103, 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg. USDJPY short-term support has been defined at Friday's low of 108.34. A bullish theme remains intact while this level holds and attention is on 109.70, May 3 high. A break of support would highlight a move below the trendline drawn off the Jan 6 low and risk a deeper pullback.
  • On the commodity front, the Gold outlook is bullish and the uptrend has resumed. This has opened $1851.5, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. Oil is off recent highs but the uptrend remains intact. The Brent (N1) focus is on the psychological $70.00 level and $71.75, Jan 8 2020 high (cont). WTI bulls are eyeing the key resistance at $67.29, Mar 8 high.
  • In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have recently breached 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. This opens 169.24, Feb 25 low and the bear trigger. Near-term risk in Gilts is still skewed to the downside. The next support and intraday bear trigger is at 127.32, Apr 1 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone

  • RES 4: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.2201 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.2184 High Feb 26
  • RES 1: 1.2178 High May 10
  • PRICE: 1.2142 @ 05:59 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 1.2087 Former trendline resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high
  • SUP 2: 1.2041 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.1986 Low May 5 and key short-term support
  • SUP 4: 1.1943 Low Apr 19

EURUSD maintains a firmer tone and is trading closer to recent highs. Last week's break to fresh highs negates recent bearish threats and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 31. The move higher has also resulted in the pair clearing trendline resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high. Moving average conditions support a bullish theme too. The focus is on 1.2184, Feb 26 high and 1.2243, Feb 25 high. Initial support is at 1.2090.

GBPUSD TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

  • RES 4: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 218
  • RES 3: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.4187 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 1.4158 High May 10
  • PRICE: 1.4127 @ 06:16 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 1.3972 Low May 10
  • SUP 2: 1.3858 Low May 6
  • SUP 3: 1.3801 Low May 3
  • SUP 4: 1.3746 Bull channel base drawn off the May 2020 low

GBPUSD rallied sharply higher Monday. The pair has cleared a number of resistance levels reinforcing current bullish conditions with sights set on the key resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high. A break of 1.4237 would strengthen a bullish case and importantly confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started in March 2020. On the downside, initial support is at Monday's intraday low of 1.3972.

EURGBP TECHS: Testing Support

  • RES 4: 0.8791/8845 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
  • RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
  • RES 1: 0.8663 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.8596 @ 06:23 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 0.8589/88 Low Apr 19 and a key support / Low May 10
  • SUP 2: 0.8567 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
  • SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP started the week on a bearish note and traded sharply lower yesterday. Attention is on support at 0.8589, Apr 19 low where a clear break would see the cross move out of its recent range and confirm a bearish breakout. This would suggest scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. The key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 0.8721.

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Trendline Support

  • RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
  • RES 2: 109.70/96 High May 3 / High Apr 9
  • RES 1: 109.29 High May 7
  • PRICE: 108.84 @ 06:28 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 108.34/08 Low May 7 / Low Apr 27
  • SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
  • SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY traded lower last week and did penetrate trendline support at 108.44. The trendline is drawn off the Jan 6 low. Support though was found at 108.34, May 7 low and a clear breach of this level is required to negate the recent bullish theme. This would expose 107.48, Apr 23 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a break of 109.70, May 3 high, would strengthen a bullish case and signal scope for a climb above 110.00.

EURJPY TECHS: Firm Within Its Bull Channel

  • RES 4: 133.62 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
  • RES 3: 133.28 1.50 proj of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing
  • RES 2: 133.13 High Sep 21, 2018 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 132.36/53 1.382 of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing / High May 10
  • PRICE: 132.18 @ 06:40 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 131.48 Low May 7
  • SUP 2: 130.99 Low May 5 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 130.57 Low Apr 27
  • SUP 4: 130.11 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

The EURJPY outlook remains bullish. Price traded above 132.36 yesterday, a Fibonacci projection. A clear break would reinforce bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. Moving average studies are pointing north reinforcing current conditions. Support is at 130.99, May 5 low. The focus is on 133.28 next, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme

  • RES 4: 0.8044 High Feb 2, 2018
  • RES 3: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 0.7923 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
  • PRICE: 0.7838 @ 06:45 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 0.7761 Low May 7
  • SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
  • SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
  • SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD traded higher yesterday but stalled at the session high. The pair has cleared the April highs and this sets the stage for a climb toward the 76.4% retracement of the February - April downtick at 0.7895. A break here would strengthen bullish conditions and point the needle toward the year's best levels printed in late February at 0.8007. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.7675, May 4 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Major Support

  • RES 4: 1.2469 50-day EMA
  • RES 3: 1.2419 High Apr 27
  • RES 2: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
  • RES 1: 1.2194/2288 High May 7 / High May 6
  • PRICE: 1.2091 @ 06:51 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 1.2079 Low May 10
  • SUP 2: 1.2062 Low Sep 2017 and a major support
  • SUP 3: 1.2007 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 4: 1.1920 Low May 2015

USDCAD remains in a clear downtrend and continues to register fresh lows. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and the move lower confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The pair is approaching a major pivot support at 1.2062, the Sep 2017 low. This level will potentially either reinforce the current M/T bear leg if breached or lead to a reversal if the support manages to contain CAD strength.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Still Looking For Weakness

  • RES 4: 172.12 High Apr 8
  • RES 3: 171.62 High Apr 14
  • RES 2: 171.26/27 50-day EMA / High Apr 22
  • RES 1: 170.98 High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 170.14 @ 05:13 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 169.89 Low Apr 4
  • SUP 2: 169.47/24 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 24 and major support
  • SUP 3: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
  • SUP 4: 168.52 Low Mar 20, 2020 (cont)

Bund futures failed to hold onto st week's highs and despite recent gains a downtrend remains intact. The bearish phase that started Mar 25 has opened the key support at 169.24, Feb 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 169.00 and below. Initial resistance is seen at 170.98, Apr 7 high. The area around the 50-day EMA at 171.26 represents a key resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

  • RES 4: 135.350 High Apr 8
  • RES 3: 135.180 High Apr 14
  • RES 2: 135.038/50 50-day EMA / High Apr 22
  • RES 1: 135.040 High May 6
  • PRICE: 134.810 @ 05:17 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 134.690 Low May 4
  • SUP 2: 134.560 Low May 3 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 134.466 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
  • SUP 4: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support

Bobl futures traded higher last week but stalled at 135.040, Apr 6 high. Despite recent gains, a downtrend remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The area around the 50-day EMA at 135.038 represents a key near-term resistance area. A resumption of weakness would again open 134.466, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture and instead highlight a stronger short-term outlook.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Focus Is On Congestion Support

  • RES 4: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 112.150 High Apr 8
  • RES 2: 112.120 High Apr 22 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 1: 112.110 High May 4, 5 and 6
  • PRICE: 112.075 @ 05:26 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 112.060/055 Congestion support in Mar and Apr / Low Apr 3
  • SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
  • SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
  • SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures stalled last week at 112.110 and resistance at 112.120, Apr 22 high remains intact. The outlook remains bearish and attention is on 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April but was probed May 3. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and pave the way for weakness towards 112.053 and 112.026, Fibonacci retracements. On the upside, a breach of 112.120 is required to signal a reversal.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Remains Below Resistance

  • RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 / 18
  • RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
  • RES 2: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
  • RES 1: 128.80 High May 7
  • PRICE: 128.28 @ Close May 10
  • SUP 1: 127.40 Low Apr 29
  • SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
  • SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded higher last week. Despite these recent gains a bearish theme remains intact following the breach on Apr 28/29 of support at 127.81, Apr 14 low. This move strengthens a bearish case following the recent pullback from 129.09, Apr 23 high and the area of resistance around the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would open 127.32, Apr 1 low ahead of the key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 129.09.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Downtrend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 149.47 High Apr 8
  • RES 3: 148.85 High Apr 15
  • RES 2: 148.65 High Apr 22
  • RES 1: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 146.99 @ Close May 10
  • SUP 1: 146.33 Low May 7
  • SUP 2: 146.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 145.35 0.764 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
  • SUP 4: 144.96 Low Sep 9, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures found support yesterday. The outlook remains bearish though following last week's move lower and break of support at this year's low of 146.84 from Feb 26. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that has been in place since Feb 12 and opens 146.00 next ahead of 145.35, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear mode reinforcing the current theme. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 147.79, May 4 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Below 4000 Again

  • RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
  • RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
  • RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
  • RES 1: 4036.00 High May 10
  • PRICE: 3952.00 @ 05:47 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 3946.52 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 3882.00 Low May 4 and key support
  • SUP 3: 3855.82 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have started the week on a softer note with price back below the 4000 handle. Broader trend conditions continue to highlight a bullish theme and pullbacks are likely corrective. The break of 4000 confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This opens 4099.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a key support has been defined at 3882.00, May 4 low. A break would signal a top and the start of a deeper correction.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Support Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 4315.90 Bull channel top drawn off the Apr 4 low
  • RES 3: 4267.25 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
  • RES 1: 4238.25 High May 10
  • PRICE: 4152.75 @ 09:46 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: 4126.45 Bull channel base drawn off the Apr 4 low
  • SUP 2: 4120.50 Low May 4
  • SUP 3: 4110.50 Low Apr 20 and key support
  • SUP 4: 4052.90 50-day EMA

The e-mini S&P printed new record highs Monday before prices faded swiftly into the Monday close. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the uptrend following the break of former resistance at 4211.00, Apr 29 high, but Monday's price action shows this progress may continue to be choppy. Nonetheless the early Monday rally maintains the underlying positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows with moving average studies also pointing north. The focus is on 4239.25, a Fibonacci projection ahead of 4300.00. Key support has been defined at 4120.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Pullbacks Considered Corrective

  • RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
  • RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
  • RES 2: $70.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 1: $69.95 - High May 5
  • PRICE: $67.87 @ 06:48 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: $67.39 - Low May 7
  • SUP 2: $66.10 - Low May 3
  • SUP 3: $64.59 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: $63.93 - Low Apr 26

Brent crude futures maintain a bullish tone and last week resumed their upleg. Price on May 5, probed key resistance at $69.73, Mar 8 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend and extend the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $71.75, the Jan 8, 2020 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $66.10. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Bullish Price Structure

  • RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 3: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
  • RES 2: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: $66.76 - High May 5
  • PRICE: $64.62 @ 06:56 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: $63.90 - Low May 7
  • SUP 2: $62.91 - Low May 3 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: $60.61 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
  • SUP 4: $58.77 - Low Apr 12

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone following a resumption of gains last week. The contract has probed resistance at $66.15, Mar 15 high where a clear break would pave the way for a test of the key hurdle for bulls at $67.29, Mar 8 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. On the downside, firm near-term support has been defined at $62.91, May 3 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

  • RES 4: $1875.7 - High Jan 29
  • RES 3: $1855.5 - High Feb 10
  • RES 2: $1851.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
  • RES 1: $1845.5 - High May 10
  • PRICE: $1836.1 @ 07:13 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: $1799.1 - High May 4 and a recent breakout level
  • SUP 2: $1785.2 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $1764.3 - Low Apr 30
  • SUP 4: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support

Gold is holding onto recent gains. The yellow metal rallied last week and cleared resistance at $1797.9, Apr 22 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early March where a reversal pattern in the shape of a double bottom began. This pattern was confirmed on Apr 8. The move higher paves the way for a climb towards $1851.5, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $1756.2.

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Still In Control

  • RES 4: $28.609 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
  • RES 3: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: $28.205 - High Feb 25
  • RES 1: $27.883 - High May 10
  • PRICE: $27.352 @ 07:17 BST May 11
  • SUP 1: $26.388 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $25.718 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
  • SUP 4: $25.199 - Low Apr 14

Silver remains bullish. The metal rallied last week, extending the current bull cycle that started Mar 3. The push higher strengthens a bullish case and confirms a resumption of the recovery from Mar 31. With moving average signals in a bull mode too, further gains are likely towards $28.328, Feb 23 high. This level represents the next key resistance handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $25.718, Apr 29 low.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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