MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Clear S/T Resistance on Soft CPI

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Clear S/T Resistance on Soft CPI

• S&P E-Minis rallied sharply higher Thursday and in the process cleared a key resistance at 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. The break of this hurdle strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and yesterday’s rally reinforces this set-up. The contract has cleared resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger.
• EURUSD surged Thursday to print a new weekly high, as a soft CPI release dented the dollar. This has resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 1.0094, strengthening the bullish case and again highlighting the bullish significance of the recent bear channel breakout. The short-term outlook in EURGBP remains bullish despite Thursday’s pullback. The cross has this week breached resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. AUDUSD traded higher Thursday, extending this week’s gains and confirming a clear break of the 50-day EMA. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started mid-October.
• Gold found support again Thursday and rallied sharply higher. This week’s gains have resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The pullback in WTI futures earlier this week undermines the recent bullish theme and suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term. A bearish shooting star candle Monday was followed by a bearish engulfing candle formation on Tuesday.
• Bund futures traded sharply higher Thursday, extending the bounce from 135.76, the Nov 8 low. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA at 140.05. A clear break of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and yesterday’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 104.39, the Oct 27 high and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.0368 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 1.0327 1.50 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0222 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 1.0213 @ 05:38 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 2: 0.9936 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.9898 Low Nov 7
• SUP 4: 0.818 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 low

EURUSD surged Thursday to print a new weekly high, as a soft CPI release dented the dollar. This has resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 1.0094, strengthening the bullish case and again highlighting the bullish significance of the recent bear channel breakout that occurred on Oct 25. Price has also breached resistance at 1.0198, reinforcing the current bull theme. This opens 1.0273, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 1.0094.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 1.2069 1.00 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.1901 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• PRICE: 1.1711 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.1445 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support

GBPUSD rallied sharply Thursday and in the process cleared resistance at 1.1645, the Oct 27 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 26 and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.1799, a Fibonacci projection and potentially the 1.2000 handle further out. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.1334, the Nov 9 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Nov 09
• PRICE: 0.8729 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 0.8686 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

The short-term outlook in EURGBP remains bullish despite Thursday’s pullback. The cross has this week breached resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. For bears, a stronger reversal lower and a move through the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 is required to resume recent bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing The Intervention Low

• RES 4: 147.57 High Nov 7
• RES 3: 146.93 High Nov 8
• RES 2: 144.75 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 143.40 50.0% retracement of the Nov 10 range
• PRICE: 141.58 @ 06:36 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 140.36/21 Low Sep 22 - Intervention Low / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 138.64 61.8% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 4: 138.05 Low Aug 30

A sharp sell-off in USDJPY Thursday posted a daily range of over 500 pips. The break lower confirms a continuation of the current corrective cycle that continues to unwind a recent overbought condition in the longer-term bull trend. Support at 140.36, the Sep 22 intervention low has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 138.64, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 144.75, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Breaches Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 145.54 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 144.57 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 143.21 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 rally

EURJPY reversed course Thursday and this resulted in a break of support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low and 50-day EMA. A clear break of this area of support would signal potential for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, the Oct 13 low. On the upside, a reversal higher and a break of resistance at 147.10, the Nov 9 high would cancel any bearish threat and expose the bull trigger at 148.40, the Oct 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 0.6768 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6705 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 0.6638 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 0.6514/0.6387 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD traded higher Thursday, extending this week’s gains and confirming a clear break of the 50-day EMA. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started mid-October. The focus is on 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and a previous breakout level. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6768, a Fibonacci retracement level. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, Thursday’s low.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3
• RES 3: 1.3763 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3490 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3314 @ 08:18 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.3285 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD maintains a bearish theme and yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a new multi-month low, tilting the balance further in favour of bears. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of 1.3285 - the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. A break of this area of support would open 1.3205, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3571, Thursday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.92 High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 140.72 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 139.98 @ 04:50 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 138.11 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 135.23 Low Oct 24
• SUP 4: 134.02 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger

Bund futures traded sharply higher Thursday, extending the bounce from 135.76, the Nov 8 low. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA at 140.05. A clear break of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 140.92, the Oct 28 high and 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA is seen as initial support - it intersects at 138.11 today. Key short-term support lies at 135.76.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.530 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 112.030 @ 05:13 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 119.110/118.260 Low Nov 10 / 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher Friday. This marks an extension of the recent bounce from the Nov 8 low of 118.260. A clear break of the average would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose resistance at 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a break of 118.260 is required to highlight a resumption of bearish activity.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.246 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.900 @ 05:45 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures are trading above Tuesday’s low and the contract rallied Thursday. The trend condition remains bearish, however, a continuation higher would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.246. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 l,ow. The latter is a bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Bull Flag Confirmed

• RES 4: 1107.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 2: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 1: 105.59 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 105.18 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 102.18/99.92 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and yesterday’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 104.39, the Oct 27 high and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that the move higher also confirmed the recent bull flag formation on the daily chart. Resistance at 105.34, the Nov 4 high has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 106.25, the Sep 12 high. Key support is at 99.92, the Nov 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 118.00 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 117.86 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 114.06/112.45 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures found support again Thursday and rallied sharply higher. Resistance at 117.93, the Oct 27 high has been pierced, a clear break would suggest potential for a extension higher towards 119.06, the Sep 8 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 114.06, the 20-day EMA ahead of Tuesday’s low of 112.45. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 113-27+ High Sep 21
• RES 3: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 112-12+ 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 111-31 High Oct 27 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 111-30 @ 13:44 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 110-12+/109-10+ Intraday low / Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.05+ 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries are rallying sharply higher and price is approaching resistance at 111-31, the Oct 27 high. A break of this level would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and expose the 50-day EMA at 112-12+. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would also strengthen the case for short-term bulls. The broader trend remains bearish - a reversal lower would again refocus attention on support at 109-10+ and 108-26+, the Nov 4 and Oct 21 lows respectively.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 3961.20 61.8/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 3883.00 High Apr 21 (cont)
• PRICE: 3871.00 @ 05:37 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 3697.00 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3617.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3553.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3418.00 Low Oct 21

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and yesterday’s rally reinforces this set-up. The contract has cleared resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this highlights current market sentiment. The focus is on a climb towards 3944.00, the Mar 29 high on the continuation chart. First support lies at yesterday’s 3697.00 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Rallies And Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• PRICE: 3966.50 @ 05:09 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 3830.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis rallied sharply higher Thursday and in the process cleared a key resistance at 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. The break of this hurdle strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. This signals scope for gains towards 4023.44 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3704.25, the Nov 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Key Resistance Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 1: $99.56 - High Nov 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $95.81 @ 07:04 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $91.73 - Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support

A strong sell-off earlier this week in Brent futures threatens the recent bullish theme, suggesting scope for an extension lower. A bearish engulfing pattern on Tuesday and Wednesday’s bearish follow through has resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, at 92.53. A clear break of this EMA would open the $90.00 handle and $87.52, the Oct 18 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $99.56, the Nov 7 high. A break would be bullish.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Candle Patterns Still Highlight A Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $89.24/93.74 - High Nov 9 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $88.35 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $84.70 - Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and a key medium-term support

The pullback in WTI futures earlier this week undermines the recent bullish theme and suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term. A bearish shooting star candle Monday was followed by a bearish engulfing candle formation on Tuesday. These patterns highlight a short-term reversal. A continuation lower would open $81.30, the Oct 18 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $93.74, Nov 7 high. A break would be bullish.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Extends

• RES 4: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1800.0 Psychological round number
• RES 2: $1765.5 - High Aug 25
• RES 1: $1764.4 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1756.6 @ 07:10 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: $1675.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing

Gold found support again Thursday and rallied sharply higher. This week’s gains have resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. Yesterday’s rally cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and paves the way for a climb towards the $1800.0 handle and resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. On the downside, initial support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low.

SILVER TECHS: Rally Extends

• RES 4: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 3: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 2: $22.252 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $22.064 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $21.786 @ 08:24 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $20.039 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 3: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver maintains a firmer tone. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and has traded higher this week. Price has breached resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. The break of this hurdle strengthens short-term bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. This opens $22.00 (tested) and $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support is seen at $20.039, the 20-day EMA.