MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Meet Short Term Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Meet Short Term Resistance

• In the equity space, e-Mini S&P futures have found resistance this week at the 20-day EMA that today intersects at 4396.73. This average represents an important intraday resistance. Recent gains are likely part of a corrective cycle that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Tuesday to a fresh trend low of 3704.00. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the primary sequence of lower lows and lower highs - a price condition that defines a downtrend.
• In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend. The pair registered another cycle low Wednesday, touching 1.1058. This reinforces the downtrend and highlights scope for an extension. USDJPY is firmer following yesterday’s gains. The pair has remained above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above a key support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low.
• Gold moved above the top of its bull channel yesterday before pulling back. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1942.6. A clear break higher would reinforce bullish conditions and pave the way for strength towards the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and this week’s gains continue to highlight a significant acceleration of the uptrend. This has again confirmed an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday as the contract extended recent gains. Importantly, the rally resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA at 168.44. This average represented a key resistance area and the clear break signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures rallied Tuesday and this resulted in a break out of its recent range. The move higher marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery that started from the 121.10 low of Feb 16.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 1.1431 High Feb 11
• RES 3: 1.1396 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 1.1328 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1233/80 High Mar 1 / Low Feb 14
• PRICE: 1.1102 @ 05:55 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.1058 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Mar ‘21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.0976 2.00 projection of the Jan - Jun - May ‘21 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0871 Low May 25, 2020

EURUSD remains in a downtrend. The pair registered another cycle low Wednesday, touching 1.1058. This reinforces the downtrend and highlights scope for an extension. The break lower also confirms a resumption of the broader bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, in line with a bearish moving average set-up. The focus is on 1.1040, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1280, the Feb 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Despite Bounce

• RES 4: 1.3749 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3662 High Jan 20 and the 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
• RES 1: 1.3439/87 High Feb 25 / Low Feb 15
• PRICE: 1.3403 @ 06:12 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.3273/72 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3240 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 1.3174 Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: 1.3163 Low Dec 8 and a key support

GBPUSD recovered Wednesday and continues to trade above recent lows. The outlook is bearish following a sell-off on Jan 24 and attention is on that day's 1.3273 low. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at 1.3358, the Jan 27 low. 1.3301, 76.4% of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 rally has also been probed. A clear break of the retracement would strengthen bearish pressure and open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. Resistance is seen at 1.3487.

EURGBP TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 2: 0.8406 High Feb 25 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8360 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8277 @ 06:24 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg
• SUP 2: 0.8238 0.764 proj of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 - 7 Price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8193 1.236 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8169 1.382 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing

EURGBP has resumed its downtrend. The contract traded lower Monday and is weaker again today. It has breached support at 0.8285, Feb 3 low and this has resulted in a test of a key support at 0.8282/77, the Feb ’20 and Dec’19 lows and a key bear trigger. Note that prices below 0.8300 highlight a potential break of the base of a multi-year range - a key bearish development if confirmed. Key short-term resistance is at 0.8406, the Feb 25 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Recovers From Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
• PRICE: 115.70 @ 06:30 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY is firmer following yesterday’s gains. The pair has remained above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above a key support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the underlying trend condition remains bullish highlighted too by a positive moving average set-up. Stronger gains would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance. A break of 114.16, would highlight a bearish threat.

EURJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 133.15 High Feb 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 130.90/131.91 High Feb 21 / High Feb 16
• RES 2: 130.03 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.25 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 128.39 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 127.30 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 127.04 Low Feb 15, 2021
• SUP 3: 126.99 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 126.44 Low Feb 9 2021

A EURJPY bearish threat remains present and yesterday’s fresh YTD low reinforces this theme. The cross has cleared key support at 128.25, Jan 25 low to confirm a 100% retracement of the recent Jan 25 - Feb 10 bull phase. This opens losses through the mid-December lows towards the 127.00 handle. Gains are considered corrective - initial resistance is seen at 129.25, yesterday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7432 High Nov 9
• RES 3: 0.7393 High Nov 10
• RES 2: 0.7371 High Nov 15, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7365 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 0.7321 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.7239/7191 Low Mar 1 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.7086/7052 Low Feb 14 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020

AUDUSD continues to climb as the pair extends the rebound from 0.6968, the Jan 28 low. The pair is testing resistance at 0.7314, Jan 13 high where a break would reinforce bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger recovery. Moving average studies are gradually turning bullish. A reversal to bull-mode in these indicators, would highlight a positive medium-term outlook. Key support has been defined at 0.7095, Feb 24 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Under Pressure

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2878 High Feb 24 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2750 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 1.2613 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.2606 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 4: 1.2451 LowJan 19 and a key support

USDCAD traded sharply lower Wednesday and remains under pressure. This marks an extension of the recent reversal from 1.2878, Feb 24 high and signals potential for a deeper retracement of the recent Jan 19 - Feb 24 upleg. The pair has breached 61.8% of this bull cycle and attention is on 1.2552, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is seen at Tuesday’s 1.2750 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Bullish Tone Intact

• RES 4: 172.50 76.4% retracement of Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.53 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 170.94/171.12 61.8% of Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg / High Mar 1
• PRICE: 169.41 @ 05:00 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 168.55 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 167.31 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 165.87/16 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 164.34 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday as the contract extended recent gains. Importantly, the rally resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA at 168.44. This average represented a key resistance area and the clear break signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. The focus is on 170.94 next, a Fibonacci retracement that was also probed Tuesday. A resumption of gains would open 172.00. Initial support is at 168.55, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 134.400 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 134.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 133.980 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 133.740 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 133.020 @ 05:05 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 132.040 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 131.660/130.710 20-day EMA / Low Feb 22 and 23
• SUP 3: 130.510 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 130.080 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures remain bullish having traded sharply higher Tuesday, marking an extension of the recovery that started Feb 10 at 130.080. This week’s impulsive gains have resulted in a move through the 20- and 50-day EMAs to reinforce and strengthen the current bullish theme. Price has also breached resistance at 133.250, the Jan 24 high and this opens the 134.00 handle next. Initial support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 132.040.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Northbound

• RES 4: 112.708 1.500 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 112.623 1.382 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 112.519 1.236 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 112.465 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 112.270 @ 05:09 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 112.010 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 111.815/635 Low Feb 28 / Low Feb 23
• SUP 3: 111.545 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 111.420 Low Feb 11

Schatz futures rallied too on Tuesday. The climb gains resulted in a clear breach of resistance at 112.145, the Jan 24 high. The break significantly strengthens the current bullish outlook and the rally also confirms a full reversal of this year's initial bearish price action. With 112.305 also cleared, the Nov 26 high, scope is seen for gains towards 112.519, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support is seen at 112.010, Tuesday’s low.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Breaks Out Of Its Recent Range

• RES 4: 127.47 2.236 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 126.90 2.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 126.81 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 125.03 @ Close Mar 2
• SUP 1: 123.50 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 122.76 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 122.04 Low Feb 23 and a key intraday support
• SUP 4: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures rallied Tuesday and this resulted in a break out of its recent range. The move higher marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery that started from the 121.10 low of Feb 16. This signals scope for a climb towards 126.90 and 127.47 next, Fibonacci projections based on a recent price swing. Key short-term support has been defined at Tuesday’s low of 123.50. Pullbacks, for now, are considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 148.02 High Dec 29
• RES 3: 147.39 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 147.06 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 145.87 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 143.73 @ Close Mar 2
• SUP 1: 141.91 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 138.63/06 Low Feb 22 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures maintain a firmer tone following Tuesday’s strong gains as the contract extended the retracement of the most recent Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. Price has breached 144.94, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. This has opened 147.06 next, the Jan 31 high. A break would further strengthen the current bullish condition. Firm support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 141.91.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Monitoring The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4478.43 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4396.73/ 99.25 20-day EMA / High Mar 2
• PRICE: 4391.50 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 4101.75 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures have found resistance this week at the 20-day EMA that today intersects at 4396.73. This average represents an important intraday resistance. Recent gains are likely part of a corrective cycle that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A reversal lower would signal a resumption of the downtrend and refocus attention on 4101.75, the Feb 24 low and bear trigger. A breach of the 20-day EMA would expose 4478.43.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 3: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 4100.20 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4003.30 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3828.50 @ 05:32 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 3704.00 Low Mar 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3663.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 3617.40 1.618 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3600.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Tuesday to a fresh trend low of 3704.00. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the primary sequence of lower lows and lower highs - a price condition that defines a downtrend. The break lower signals scope for weakness towards 3700.00 and 3663.50. The latter is a Fibonacci projection level. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 4003.30, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Still Defying Gravity

• RES 4: $132.33- 3.382 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $129.43 - 3.236 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $124.74 - 3.00 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 1: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• PRICE: $119.20 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $106.83 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $98.30 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Fev 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: $91.94 - 20-day EMA

Brent futures continue to climb as the current rally accelerates. This week’s gains have confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and this has resulted in a clear break of the psychological $100.00 mark. The focus is on the $120.00 handle next where a break would signal scope for a climb towards 124.74, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support is seen at yesterday’s $106.83 low.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Impulsive Rally Extends

• RES 4: $128.13 - 3.382 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $125.27 - 3.236 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $120.64 - 3.00 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 1: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• PRICE: $115.45 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $105.18 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $95.32 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $87.46 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures remain in an uptrend and this week’s gains continue to highlight a significant acceleration of the uptrend. This has again confirmed an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The $100.00 level has been cleared and strengthens current trend conditions. The focus is on the $120.00 handle next, a psychological hurdle. On the downside, initial support is seen at yesterday’s low of $105.18.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: $1992.5 - High Sep 1 2020
• RES 3: $1980.8 - 2.00 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $1974.3 - High Feb 24
• RES 1: $1950.1 - High Mar 2
• PRICE: $1932.5 @ 08:05 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25
• SUP 3: $1844.7 - Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold moved above the top of its bull channel yesterday before pulling back. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1942.6. A clear break higher would reinforce bullish conditions and pave the way for strength towards the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. Key short-term support is unchanged at the Feb 24 low of $1878.4 low where a break would suggest the tide has turned and signal scope for a deeper pullback within the channel.

SILVER TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $26.775 - High Jul 6 2021
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14, 2021
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4, 2021
• RES 1: $25.541/625 - High Mar 1 / High Feb 24
• PRICE: $25.386 @ 08:07 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: $23.443 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: $21.949 - Low Jan 7

Silver rallied Tuesday but remains below last week’s high of $25.625. Despite a recent pullback and volatile price action, the outlook remains bullish and scope is seen for a continuation higher to retest $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high. This level was probed last week, a clear break would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, initial support lies at $23.850, the Feb 24 low. Dips would be considered corrective.