MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Remain in Corrective Cycle

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Remain in Near-Term Corrective Cycle

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Friday confirming an extension of the current bullish corrective cycle. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and this signal scope for a climb towards the 50-day EMA, currently at 4042.61. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Friday and price continues to trade above recent lows. The primary trend direction remains down though and short-term gains are considered corrective.
• EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. From a trend perspective, the outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies point south and price continues trade inside a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. USDJPY remains in an uptrend. The pair broke to new cycle highs last week, which confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. AUDUSD continues to trade above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. This support however remains exposed and trend signals are bearish. The USDCAD outlook is bullish however price action is weaker as the pair pulls away from its recent highs. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.
• Gold is unchanged. The yellow metal remains vulnerable near-term and support still appears exposed. Price has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat that also signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures are trading above last week’s lows. A bearish threat is present following recent weakness that resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. This strengthened a bearish theme, signalling scope for a continuation lower and has opened $100.66, the May 19 low.
• Bund futures ended last week on a firmer note and price is trading closer to recent highs. Gains last week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens short-term bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger corrective recovery. Gilt futures rallied sharply higher last Thursday. The climb resulted in a breach of resistance at 113.25, the Jun 15 high and price also traded through the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0636/0774 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0606 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.0568 @ 06:19 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 1.0445/0359 Low Jun 17 and 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. From a trend perspective, the outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies point south and price continues trade inside a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0636 and is a key short-term resistance, where a break would highlight a potential reversal. For bears, a resumption of weakness would open 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading In A Tight Range

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2517 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.2406 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2285 @ 06:24 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 1.2161/2042 Low Jun 22 and 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

GBPUSD is still trading in a tight range and above key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. Recent gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 1.1934. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8641 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 0.8601 @ 06:38 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 0.8563 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8510 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

The trend outlook in EURGBP remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode and this clearly highlights a positive trend condition. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on a retest of 0.8721, Jun 15 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend. Firm support is seen at 0.8510, the 50-day EMA. Dips are considered corrective.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Still Bullish

• RES 4: 139.07 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 136.71/88 High Jun 22 / High Oct 1998
• PRICE: 134.80 @ 06:48 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 133.41/131.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 3: 130.89 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY remains in an uptrend. The pair broke to new cycle highs last week, which confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and has opened 136.88 next, the Oct 1998 high. Price is also trading inside a bull channel - drawn from the Mar 4 low. The top at 139.67 is an objective further out. Key short-term support has been defined at 131.50.

EURJPY TECHS: Evening Star Candle Highlights Potential Reversal

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 144.25 High Jun 8/23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 142.37 @ 06:54 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 140.95 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: 138.61/37.85 50-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY maintains a bullish outlook. However, price action between Jun 21-23 does represent a concern for bulls. A 3-day candle pattern - evening star reversal - was confirmed at last Thursday’s close. This is a strong reversal pattern and warns of a deeper pullback near-term. The next support is 140.95, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is at 144.25, a break is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and remove any bearish threats.

AUDUSD TECHS: Attention Is On Key Support

• RES 4: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7097 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7016/7069 20-day EMA / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.6931 @ 07:01 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 0.6869/51 Low Jun 23/14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD continues to trade above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. This support however remains exposed and trend signals are bearish. A resumption of weakness would also signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high, remains a key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3338 38.2% of the 2020 - 2021 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2869 @ 08:08 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 1.2856 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2795 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support

The USDCAD outlook is bullish however price action is weaker as the pair pulls away from its recent highs. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a break of 1.3000 and delivered a print above key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. A clear breach of 1.3077 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3113, Nov 23 2020 high. Initial firm support is at 1.2856, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 152.28 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.23 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.06 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 149.00 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 147.39 @ 05:05 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 144.81 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)

Bund futures ended last week on a firmer note and price is trading closer to recent highs. Gains last week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens short-term bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger corrective recovery. The focus is on 150.06, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 142.56, Jun 17 low. Note that short-term gains are still considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 125.112 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 3: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 2: 124.124 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 1: 123.250 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 123.220 @ 05:16 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 121.820 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)

Bobl futures traded higher last week confirming an extension of the current bullish corrective cycle. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this has strengthened short-term bullish conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 124.124, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that short-term gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 119.940, the Jun 16 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 109.405 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 109.334 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 2: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 1: 109.031 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• PRICE: 108.815 @ 05:12 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 108.290 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 108.025/107.705 Low Jun 21 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Schatz futures rallied last week and cleared the 20-day EMA at 108.644. The break of this hurdle has strengthened short-term bullish conditions and suggests scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Scope is seen for a climb towards 109.031, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the initial support to watch is at 108.025, Jun 21 low. A break would signal a bearish reversal and expose the bear trigger at 107.705, Jun 16 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Clears The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 115.02 High Jun 8
• RES 1: 114.55 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 113.97 @ Close Jun 24
• SUP 1: 111.93 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 4: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher last Thursday. The climb resulted in a breach of resistance at 113.25, the Jun 15 high and price also traded through the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for an extension higher that has opened 115.55, the Jun 6 high. Gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A return lower would refocus attention on 109.89, the Jun 16 low and bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 125.11 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 124.48 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 2: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 122.80/123.15 High Jun 24 and Jun 9
• PRICE: 121.81 @ Close Jun 24
• SUP 1: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

BTP futures traded higher last week and price has cleared initial resistance at the 20-day EMA. The breach of this average suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention shifts to 123.88, the May 9 low plus a recent breakout level. Initial support to watch is at 118.60, the Jun 22 low. A break of this support would signal a short-term bearish reversal and the end of the current correction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3638.40 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3567.00 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 3548.00 @ 05:30 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Friday and price continues to trade above recent lows. The primary trend direction remains down though and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in bear mode condition and this highlights a bearish trend set-up. First resistance is seen at 3567.00, Jun 16 high and firmer resistance is at 3638.40, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger is at 3384.00, Jun 16 low.

E-MINI S&P (U2):Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4042.61 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3936.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 3918.50 @ 06:59 BST June 27
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded higher Friday confirming an extension of the current bullish corrective cycle. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and this signal scope for a climb towards the 50-day EMA, currently at 4042.61. The primary trend direction remains down though and a reversal lower would signal the end of the correction. This would also refocus attention on the bear trigger at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $121.25 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $116.25 - High Jun 21
• PRICE: $112.99 @ 07:05 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: $107.03 - Low May 22
• SUP 2: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.14 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $98.32 - Low Apr 25

Brent futures traded lower last week before finding support at $107.03 on Jun 22. A bearish theme remains intact though and scope is seen for weakness towards $103.84 next, the May 19 low and a key support. Initial support to watch is the Jun 22 low of $107.03 and this level represents an intraday bear trigger. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $116.25, the Jun 21 high. A break of this hurdle would ease the bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $110.87 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $107.42 @ 07:14 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: $101.53/100.66 - Low Jun 22 / Low May 19
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures are trading above last week’s lows. A bearish threat is present following recent weakness that resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. This strengthened a bearish theme, signalling scope for a continuation lower and has opened $100.66, the May 19 low. A breach of this support would pave the way for a move towards $95.47, the May 11 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $116.58, the Jun 17 high. A break would ease the bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Support Still Appears Exposed

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 2: $1874.1 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1858.6 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1835.3 @ 07:20 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold is unchanged. The yellow metal remains vulnerable near-term and support still appears exposed. Price has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat that also signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline to watch resistance is at $1874.1.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
• RES 1: $22.273/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6 and key resistance
• PRICE: $21.436 @ 08:15 BST Jun 27
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish despite the recovery from Friday’s low of $20.614. A bearish threat follows the recent pullback from $22.517, the Jun 6 high. This also means the 50-day EMA, $22.273, remains intact. A clear breach of these two resistance points is required to highlight a short-term reversal. On the downside, attention is on key support at $20.464, May 13 low.