MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Retain Corrective Bias
Price Signal Summary – Stocks Retain Corrective Bias Lower
- Recent weakness in S&P E-Minis highlighted the start of a corrective cycle. The contract remains in a bear-mode condition for now and scope is seen for a deeper retracement near-term. An extension lower would open 5330.00. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower last week and a bearish tone - a correction - remains intact for now. The latest move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Friday’s sharp sell-off signals scope for an extension lower and sights are on 4686.53.
- GBPUSD traded lower Monday, extending the bear cycle that started Aug 27. The move down is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 140.82, the Jan 2 low. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains in place for now. This recent move down is considered corrective. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and this signals scope for an extension towards 0.6643 next, a Fibonacci retracement point.
- Gold is in consolidation mode and remains closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged and the primary direction remains up. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend.WTI futures remain in a bearish condition and last week’s impulsive sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down resulted in a breach of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12.
- Bund futures gapped lower Monday but managed to recover during yesterday’s session. The outlook remains bullish following last week’s rally and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend.Gilt futures traded higher last week and the price remains closer to its recent peak. The contract has pierced a key resistance at 100.30, the Aug 14 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of uptrend and open the 101.00 handle.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support
- RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1155/1202 High Sep 6 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1039 @ 05:40 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 1.1026 Low Sep 03
- SUP 2: 1.0990 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0977 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
EURUSD traded lower Monday. A medium-term uptrend remains intact and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The move lower yesterday resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and attention is on support at 1.1026, the Sep 3 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.0977. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. A break would be bullish development.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3238/3266 High Sep 06 / High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3143 High Sep 9
- PRICE: 1.3076 @ 05:56 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 1.3058 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3011 Low Aug 21
- SUP 3: 1.2956 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2895 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - 27 bull leg
GBPUSD traded lower Monday, extending the bear cycle that started Aug 27. The move down is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3075, has been pierced. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2956. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3266, Aug 27 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Bears Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.8623 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 2: 0.8473 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8458 20-Day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8443 @ 06:40 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest move higher is a shallow correction and appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current conditions. A break lower would resume the downtrend and open 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8458, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 149.08 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 145.54/147.21 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- RES 1: 144.23 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 143.08 @ 06:50 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 141.70 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 140.82 Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 140.82, the Jan 2 low. On the upside, a firm resistance is seen around the 20-day EMA, at 145.54 today. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
- RES 3: 163.99 200 DMA
- RES 2: 163.59 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 160.92/162.89 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- PRICE: 157.96 @ 07:17 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 157.41 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 156.65 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - 15 bull leg
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is unchanged. The trend outlook is bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend and sights are on 156.65, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open the key support and bear trigger at 154.42, the Aug 5 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 162.89, the Sep 2 high. First resistance is 160.92, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Breaches Support At The 20- And 50-Day EMAs
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6767/6824 High Sep 6 / High Aug 29 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6673 @ 07:42 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 0.6643 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5- 29 rally
- SUP 2: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
- SUP 3: 0.6587 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5- 29 rally
- SUP 4: 0.6565 Low Aug 12
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains in place for now. This recent move down is considered corrective. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and this signals scope for an extension towards 0.6643 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6767, the Jun 6 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a reversal and expose key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 3: 1.3646 High Aug 15
- RES 2: 1.3635 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3582 High Sep 06
- PRICE: 1.3564 @ 07:55 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 08
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 05
Recent gains in USDCAD appear to be corrective, however, Friday’s strong gains signal scope for an extension near-term. The latest recovery has exposed resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3635. A breach of the average is required to signal scope for a stronger bullish cycle. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.3441, the Aug 28 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 136.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 134.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 1: 134.81 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 134.53 @ 05:17 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 133.78/15 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures gapped lower Monday but managed to recover during yesterday’s session. The outlook remains bullish following last week’s rally and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 134.95 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 133.15, would highlight scope for a deeper retracement. First support is 133.70, the 20-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Theme Remains Intact
- RES 4: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 120.130 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 120.000 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 119.810 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 119.690 @ 05:34 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 119.195 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - 6 rally
- SUP 2: 119.160 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 119.050 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - 6 rally
- SUP 4: 118.870 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 6 rally
A bullish theme in Bobl futures remains intact and Monday’s climb from its session low is a positive development, maintaining the bull cycle that began earlier this month. Key support has been defined at 118.580, the Sep 3 low. Scope is seen for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.130, the Aug 5 high. On the downside, clearance of 118.580 would reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support is 119.160, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 107.373 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.210 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 107.047 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.005 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 106.965 @ 05:45 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 106.765 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 105.975 High Jun 14 (cont)
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact. The recovery last week is a positive development and signals the end of the recent corrective cycle between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Note too that MA studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open 107.047, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, clearance of 106.520, the Sep 3 low would reinstate a recent bear threat.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 101.93 High Jan 4 (cont)
- RES 3: 101.46 High Aug 5 (cont)
- RES 2: 101.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 100.60 HIgh Sep 6
- PRICE: 100.12 @ Close Sep 9
- SUP 1: 99.29 Low Sep 9
- SUP 2: 99.18 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 98.11 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: 98.00 Round number support
Gilt futures traded higher last week and the price remains closer to its recent peak. The contract has pierced a key resistance at 100.30, the Aug 14 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of uptrend and open the 101.00 handle. Moving average studies on the continuation chart remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch lies at 99.18, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Northbound
- RES 4: 121.04 2.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 120.76 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 120.42 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 120.34 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 119.93 @ Close Sep 9
- SUP 1: 119.21/118.16 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 118.00 Low Jul 29
- SUP 3: 116.21 Low Jul 9
- SUP 4: 115.14 Low Jul 1
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish. Last week’s gains reinforce this theme and the move higher resulted in a breach of 119.90, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 120.42 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, reinforcing current trend conditions. Key support is at 118.16, the Sep 2 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 1: 4876.96/4998.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 3 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 4780.00 @ 06:10 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 4730.00 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 4686.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4612.94 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4558.00 Low Aug 6
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower last week and a bearish tone - a correction - remains intact for now. The latest move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Friday’s sharp sell-off signals scope for an extension lower and sights are on 4686.53, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 4998.00, the Sep 3 high. First resistance is at 4876.96, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (U4) Corrective Phase Still In Play
- RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and key resistance
- RES 1: 5538.47/5669.75 20-day EMA / High Sep 3 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 5470.50@ 07:19 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 5394.00 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 5367.50 Low Aug 13
- SUP 3: 5330.00 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5249.74 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
Recent weakness in S&P E-Minis highlighted the start of a corrective cycle. The contract remains in a bear-mode condition for now and scope is seen for a deeper retracement near-term. An extension lower would open 5330.00, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg. Key resistance has been defined at 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5538.47, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Southbound
- RES 4: $83.74 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
- RES 2: $78.21 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $75.95 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $71.72 @ 06:59 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: $70.61 - Low Sep 5
- SUP 2: $70.35 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $68.99 - 1.50 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures remain in a clear downtrend. Last week's move down resulted in a breach of $74.62, the Aug 5 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started in April and opens $70.35, a Fibonacci projection. A key support at $73.16, the Dec 13 ‘23 low, has also been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at $75.95, the 20-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance
- RES 3: $77.60 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $74.80 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $72.67 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $68.45 @ 07:17 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: $67.17 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $65.30 - 1.50 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.93 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures remain in a bearish condition and last week’s impulsive sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down resulted in a breach of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12 and opens $66.66, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at $72.67, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
- RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2506.2 @ 07:14 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 2: $2448.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2417.0 - Low Sep 8
- SUP 4: $2364.4 - Low Aug 5
Gold is in consolidation mode and remains closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged and the primary direction remains up. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has recently been pierced. The next firm support to watch is $2448.3, the 50-day EMA. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- RES 1: $28.854/30.192 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 26
- PRICE: $28.349 @ 08:06 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: $27.686/26.451 - Low Sep 6 / Low Aug 8
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and the metal continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Price on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low, before rebounding. This has exposed key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $30.192, the Aug 26 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502, a Fibonacci retracement.
MNI (LONDON)