MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Undergo S/T Corrective Bounce

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Undergo S/T Corrective Bounce

• The S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bearish, however, a short-term corrective cycle has unfolded following the recovery from last Wednesday’s low. The 50-day EMA has been cleared and this suggests potential for a stronger recovery towards 4175.47 next. A corrective cycle has unfolded in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract and price traded higher yesterday, marking a bullish start to the week. The 50-day EMA - an important short-term pivot level - has been cleared and the break suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery.
• EURUSD traded higher Monday. A key short-term break occurred - price traded through resistance at 1.0140, the channel top, drawn from the Feb 10 high. EURGBP maintains a bullish tone and is trading closer to its recent high. Attention is on the key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. This level was pierced yesterday. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started early March. EURJPY started the week on a bullish note, clearing last week’s highs and touching the best levels since 2015. The break reinforces bullish conditions and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Gold remains in a clear downtrend and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has recently been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Aug 10. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present following last week’s move lower and break of support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and also highlights the end of a broad sideways move.
• Bund futures remain in bear mode - the fresh low print Friday confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The contract continues to retrace the bull leg between Jun 16 - Aug 2 and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August suggests potential for an extension near-term. The breach on Aug 30 of support at 108.94, the Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Top Continues To Offer Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0400 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.0368 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 1: 1.0198/0249 High Sep 12 / 76.4% of Aug 10 - Sep 6 downleg
• PRICE: 1.0133 @ 06:14 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.0037 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.9931/9864 Low Sep 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD traded higher Monday. A key short-term break occurred - price traded through resistance at 1.0140, the channel top, drawn from the Feb 10 high. However, the pair failed to hold onto yesterday’s high and is trading inside the channel. A clear break of the channel top and close above it, would strengthen bullish conditions and suggest scope for a stronger recovery to 1.0249, a Fibonacci retracement. First support is at 1.0037, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce Arrives At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1906 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1783 High Aug 29
• RES 2: 1.1708 High Sep 12
• RES 1: 1.1703/10 20-day EMA / High Sep 9
• PRICE: 1.1689 @ 06:23 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.1580 Low Sep 12
• SUP 2: 1.1412/06 Low Mar 20 2020 and major support / Low Sep 7
• SUP 3: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1300 Round number support

The trend needle in GBPUSD points south despite the latest gains - a correction. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlight a downtrend. Key support at 1.1412, Mar 20 2020 low, has been pierced. This is a key level and a break would strengthen bearish conditions. The 20-day EMA intersects at 1.1703. A clear break would signal scope for a stronger recovery and allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.

EURGBP TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8721/22 High Jun 15 / High Sep 12
• PRICE: 0.8671 @ 06:41 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 0.8649 Low Sep 12
• SUP 2: 0.8567 Low Sep 6 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8526 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29

EURGBP maintains a bullish tone and is trading closer to its recent high. Attention is on the key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. This level was pierced yesterday. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started early March and pave the way for a climb towards 0.8811, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8567, the Sep 6 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 147.25 3.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 2: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 144.99/145.28 High Sep 7 2.618 proj of Aug 2 - 8 - 11 swing
• PRICE: 142.40 @ 06:47 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 141.51 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 140.25 Low Sep 6
• SUP 3: 139.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 137.13 50-day EMA

USDJPY continues to trade below recent highs. The uptrend is intact though and short-term weakness is considered corrective. This is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Last week’s climb reinforces the primary uptrend and attention is on 145.00 where a break would also strengthen current conditions. This would open 145.28 and 146.03, Fibonacci projections. Firm trend support is 139.75, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Has Cleared Key Resistance

• RES 4: 147.56 2.50 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 146.97 2.382 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 146.23 2.236 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 145.64 High Sep 9
• PRICE: 144.31 @ 06:51 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 142.64/41.37 Low Sep 9 / 7
• SUP 2: 140.26 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.11 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 138.26 Low Aug 29

EURJPY started the week on a bullish note, clearing last week’s highs and touching the best levels since 2015. The break reinforces bullish conditions and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The cross has also cleared resistance at 144.28, the Jun 28 high and a major resistance. This has opened 146.23, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is seen at 142.64, the Sep 9 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7034 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 7 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 0.6970 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6910 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6878 @ 07:02 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 0.6747/0.6699 Low Sep 9 / 7
• SUP 2: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6612 Low May 29

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are still considered corrective. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 0.6910. This represents an important short-term resistance and a break would signal scope for a stronger bounce, opening 0.7009, the Aug 26 high. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.6682, the Jul 14 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 1.3366 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3105/3209 High Sep 9 / 7
• PRICE: 1.2977 @ 07:58 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.2964 50-day EMA and Monday’s low
• SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

A USDCAD bullish theme remains intact, however, the pair has failed to hold on to last week’s highs and a corrective pullback is still in play. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA and attention is on support at 1.2964, the 50-day EMA and Monday’s low. A break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 1.3324, the Jul 14 high and a bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 149.81 High Aug 23
• RES 3: 148.97 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 148.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 145.82/146.81 High Sep 8 / High Sep 5
• PRICE: 144.05 @ 05:08 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 142.46 2.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 2: 142.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 140.90 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.67 Low Jun 16 2022 and a key support (cont)

Bund futures remain in bear mode - the fresh low print Friday confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The contract continues to retrace the bull leg between Jun 16 - Aug 2 and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish theme. The focus is on the 142.00 handle. Firm resistance is at 146.81, the Sep 5 high. Gains are considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 125.200 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 124.670 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 124.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 123.160/123.730 High Sep 8 / High Sep 6 and key resistance
• PRICE: 122.310 @ 05:16 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 121.280/120.990 Low Sep 9 / Low Jun 21 (cont)
• SUP 2: 120.358 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.940 Low Jun 16 and key support (cont)
• SUP 4: 119.782 1.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures remain bearish and the break lower last week marks a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on 120.990, the Jun 21 low (cont). The contract continues to retrace the mid-June to early August climb. Scope is also seen for a move to the key support at 119.940, the Jun 16 major support (cont). On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 123.730, the Sep 6 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 109.280 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 109.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 108.845 High Aug 25
• RES 1: 108.045/570 High Sep 9 / 6 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 107.925 @ 05:20 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 107.670 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 107.470 1.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.253 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.00 Round number support

Schatz futures traded lower once again last Friday. The trend direction is down and the move lower confirms a resumption of the bear cycle. This maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average studies in a bear mode position. The focus is on 107.470, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm firm resistance is seen at 108.570, the Sep 6 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 112.43 High Aug 22
• RES 3: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 2: 109.47/110.85 High Aug 31 / 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 106..88/107.93 High Sep 6 / High Sep 1
• PRICE: 106.20 @ Close Sep 12
• SUP 1: 104.67 Low Sep 8
• SUP 2: 103.87 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 103.05 2.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 102.54 2.382 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August suggests potential for an extension near-term. The breach on Aug 30 of support at 108.94, the Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on the 103.87, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 107.93, the Sep 1 high. Gains are considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 122.59 High Aug 19
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.06 High Sep 8
• PRICE: 117.68 @ Close Sep 12
• SUP 1: 115.60 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 111.62 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 5 price swing

Bearish conditions in BTP futures remain intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights the current bearish theme as the contract continues to retrace the mid-June - early August rally. The focus is on the 115.00 handle next ahead of the major support at 113.78, Jun 14 low (cont). On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 119.06, the Sep 8 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 119-01 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 118-03 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 117-07+/118-00 20-day EMA / High Aug 26
• RES 1: 116-26 High Sep 2
• PRICE: 115-28 @ 15:17 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 115-13+ Low Sep 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 114-26 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 114-06 Low Jun 14 and a key support
• SUP 4: 114-00 Round number support

Treasuries remain vulnerable and are trading closer to last week’s lows. The contract has recently breached 116-01+, 61.8% of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 rally as well as the recent 115-23 low (Sep 1). The break lower maintains a bearish theme and the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 114-06, the Jun 14 low and key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 116-26, the Sep 2 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Remains Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3659.00 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 3642.00 @ 05:31 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 3504.00/3429.00 Low Sep 9 / Low Sep 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3386.00 Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 3362.00 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

A corrective cycle has unfolded in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract and price traded higher yesterday, marking a bullish start to the week. The 50-day EMA - an important short-term pivot level - has been cleared and the break suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This has opened 3705.00, the Aug 26 high. On the downside, a strong reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at 3429.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 4345.75 High Aug 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4313.50 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 4175.47 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 bear leg
• PRICE: 4139.50 @ 06:54 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 4022.50/3900.00 Low Sep 9 / Low Sep 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3851.50 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3741.75 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3657.00 Low Jun 17 and a major support

The S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bearish, however, a short-term corrective cycle has unfolded following the recovery from last Wednesday’s low. The 50-day EMA has been cleared and this suggests potential for a stronger recovery towards 4175.47 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a strong reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at 3900.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $103.86 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $96.82 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $95.17 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $93.91 @ 07:05 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $87.24 - Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $86.54 - Low Mar 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $82.59 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $80.71 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing

Brent futures are holding on to recent gains. The outlook remains bearish though following the recent strong move lower. This resulted in a break of two important support levels; $90.95, the Aug 17 low and $89.06, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. The break of $89.06 highlights a resumption of the downtrend that started early August and has opened $86.54, the Mar 9 low. The next firm resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at $96.82.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Bearish Threat Still Present Despite Bounce

• RES 4: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $92.02/97.66 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• RES 1: $89.10 - Monday’s high
• PRICE: $87.88 @ 07:13 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $81.20 - Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $79.83 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 3: $78.54 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $76.47 - Low Jan 24

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present following last week’s move lower and break of support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and also highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. The focus is on $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. The next firm resistance is at $92.02, the 50-day EMA. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 3: $1765.5 - High Aug 25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1753.5 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1735.1 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $1723.4 @ 07:19 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 3: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5 2020
• SUP 4: $1657.1 - 0.764 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing

Gold remains in a clear downtrend and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has recently been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Aug 10. The break lower exposes $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend that started early March. Initial firm resistance is seen at $1735.1, Monday’s high.

SILVER TECHS: Correction Higher Extends

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $20.014 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $19.715 @ 08:08 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $18.845/17.562 - Low Sep 12 / Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

Silver traded sharply higher Monday and this has placed a recent bearish theme on hold - for now. The strong recovery has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. The climb signals scope for an extension towards a key resistance at 20.876, the Aug 15 high. On the downside, initial support is seen at Monday’s low of $18.847. A break of this level would signal a reversal of recent gains. Note that the broader trend direction remains down.