MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Strong USDCAD Rally
Price Signal Summary – Strong USDCAD Rally
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. Initial supports to watch are 5911.09 and 5823.84. Despite Thursday’s gains, a bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The move lower this week marks a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend. The pair has entered oversold territory, however, a clear reversal signal is required to highlight a short-term base. This week’s price action confirms an extension of the impulsive bear cycle. EURJPY remains in consolidation mode. A bullish theme is intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.48 and has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 161.85, the Oct 17 low. A strong rally in USDCAD this week reinforces the current bullish condition. The pair has topped 1.3959, the Nov 1 / 6 high. This break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and has also resulted in a breach of 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high.
- The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. However, the latest move down has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and the metal is trading at its recent lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high has reinforced current conditions. The move down exposes $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down
- RES 4: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 3: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.0763 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0601/0683 Low Apr 16 / Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.0540 @ 05:53 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 1.0484 1.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0377 1.236 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend. The pair has entered oversold territory, however, a clear reversal signal is required to highlight a short-term base. This week’s price action confirms an extension of the impulsive bear cycle, and the bear trend is reinforced by moving average studies trending lower. Sights are on 1.0484 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.0788, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 1.2908/3048 20-day EMA / High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.2768/2834 High Nov 13 / Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.2675 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 1.2630/13 Low Nov 14 / Low Jun 27
- SUP 2: 1.2568 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - Sep 26 bull cycle
- SUP 3. 1.2510 Low May 14
- SUP 4: 1.2446 Low ASep 9
A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Support at 1.2665, the Aug 8 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 1.2613, the Jun 27 low, and 1.2568, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2908, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Highlights A Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8367/0.8448 50-day EMA / High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.8338/46 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
- PRICE: 0.8319 @ 06:36 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP remains above Tuesday’s low. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective, however, Tuesday's price pattern is a possible bullish engulfing candle - a reversal signal. A clear breach of the 20-day EMA, at 0.8338, would strengthen a reversal threat. For bears, the cross has recently breached 0.8295, the Oct 18 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 0.8250, the Apr 14 2022 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence
- RES 4: 158.68 2.50 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 2: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 156.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 156.07 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 152.73 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 150.48 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s climb reinforces the bullish theme. Resistance at 154.71, the Nov 07 high, has been cleared and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 156.88 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 152.73, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal the start of a corrective cycle.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.43/166.69 High Nov 8 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 164.75 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 163.48/21 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
EURJPY remains in consolidation mode. A bullish theme is intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.48 and has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 161.85, the Oct 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, a Fibonacci retracement point.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6655/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6594 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6464 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 0.6441 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the move down this week reinforces current conditions. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6594, the 20-day EMA. The reversal trigger is at 0.6688, the Nov 7 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 1.4210 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4140 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4084 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4072 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4064 @ 08:13 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- SUP 2: 1.3891/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 1.3785 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
A strong rally in USDCAD this week reinforces the current bullish condition. The pair has topped 1.3959, the Nov 1 / 6 high. This break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and has also resulted in a breach of 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high. 1.4084 marks the next upside level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3891, the 20-day EMA. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 132.98 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.40/74 20-day EMA / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 132.01 @ 05:30 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 130.58 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance is at 132.40, the 20-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would be seen as an early bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.906 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.830 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 118.550 @ 05:42 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 117.910/680 Low Nov 7 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures on Oct 30 highlighted a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off opens 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. The latest recovery appears corrective. The 20-day EMA has been breached, however, the contract has pulled back from its latest high. The 50-day EMA is at 118.906 and marks the next key resistance.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trendline Resistance Has Been Pierced
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.880 High Nov 14
- PRICE: 106.815 @ 06:10 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 106.645 Low NOv 8
- SUP 2: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Schatz futures are trading at their recent highs. Despite the current bull cycle, a bearish trend condition remains intact. The trend is oversold and the latest move higher is allowing this condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and the bear trigger. The trendline at 106.821, drawn from the Oct 1 high, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 106.945, the Oct 29 high.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 3: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- RES 2: 95.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 94.73 High Nov 1 and the 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 93.60 @ Close Nov 14
- SUP 1: 92.53 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. This signals scope for an extension towards 92.23, the 2.236 projection. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible base. Initial resistance is 94.73, Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 122.62 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 121.50 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.81 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.12/52 50-day EMA / High Nov 14
- PRICE: 120.26 @ Close Nov 14
- SUP 1: 119.00/117.88 Low Nov 8 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.34 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 116.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures traded higher again, Thursday. Despite the latest bounce, the contract maintains a bearish tone. Price traded lower last week strengthening a bearish threat. A resumption of the downtrend would refocus attention on 117.70, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 120.12, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would cancel the bearish threat.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4869.57 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4804.00 @ 06:25 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 4706.00 Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
Despite Thursday’s gains, a bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The move lower this week marks a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, Nov 6 high, where a break would highlight a reversal. For now, gains are considered corrective.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6053.25 High Nov 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5945.50 @ 07:24 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 5911.09 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5823.84 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. Initial supports to watch are 5911.09 and 5823.84, the 20- and 50-day EMA points respectively. Recent gains resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $71.65 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
A bear threat in Brent futures remains present. Resistance is intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. An extension down would expose support at $69.68, Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance is at $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.88 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $67.80 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high has reinforced current conditions. The move down exposes $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $72.88, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2667.6 - 20-day EMA
- RES 1: $2638.6 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $2552.9 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: $2415.9 - 38.2% retracement of the Oct 6 ‘23 - Oct 31 bull leg
The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. However, the latest move down has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and the metal is trading at its recent lows. The breach of the EMAs signals scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on $2511.1 next, the Sep 18 low. Firm resistance is seen at $2667.6, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.794 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 30360@ 08:17 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: $29.677 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal continues to weaken. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and cleared $30.622, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.794, the 20-day EMA.