MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Trend Condition in USD/JPY Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – Trend Condition in USD/JPY Remains Bullish

• S&P E-minis are in a consolidation mode but the trend condition is bullish following recent gains. Resistance at 4244.00, Feb 2 high and a bull trigger, has recently been cleared. The break reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started in October 2022. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above 4216.00, the May 31 low and a key support. For now, the recent move higher appears to be a correction. Price action last week reinforced a bearish theme - support at 4252.00, the May 25 low, has been breached.
• The pullback in GBPUSD from last week’s high highlights a bearish threat and key S/T resistance has been defined at 1.2545, the Jun 2 high. Note that, despite a brief test above it last week, the 61.8% retracement of the May 10 - 25 downleg at 1.2538 remains intact. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. Attention is on key resistance at the top of a bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.11 today. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61. USDCAD maintains a softer tone following the reversal from the May 26 high of 1.3655 and is trading at its recent lows. The impulsive nature of the latest sell-off signals scope for a deeper pullback.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal on Monday once again tested trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. The trendline intersects at $1951.3. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions. WTI futures traded higher Monday, piercing resistance at $74.73, the May 24 high. However, the contract has failed to hold on to its latest gains. A clear break of $74.73 would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension higher.
• Bund futures have recovered from Tuesday’s low. The initial recovery yesterday did appear to be an early indication that the recent pullback was over and that a S/T bullish theme had returned. Gilt futures are trading closer to recent lows. The recent recovery from 94.21, the May 26 low, has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0823 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0780 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0690 @ 05:49 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support

EURUSD is unchanged and trend conditions remain bearish. Fresh cycle lows last week reinforce the bearish theme and price continues to trade below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The recent breach of 1.0653, 76.4% of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 rally, opens 1.0551, the Mar 16 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0780, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure and signal scope for a stronger correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2641 High May 11
• RES 2: 1.2592 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 25 bear cycle
• RES 1: 1.2461/2545 High Jun 5 / High Jun 2 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2424 @ 05:58 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 1.2369/2308 Low Jun 5 / Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

The pullback in GBPUSD from last week’s high highlights a bearish threat and key S/T resistance has been defined at 1.2545, the Jun 2 high. Note that, despite a brief test above it last week, the 61.8% retracement of the May 10 - 25 downleg at 1.2538 remains intact - an important short-term resistance. A continuation lower would open 1.2308, May 25 low and key support. Clearance of last Friday’s high is required to reinstate the recent bull cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 0.8814 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 2: 0.8722 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636/65 High Jun 5 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8604 @ 06:13 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 0.8567 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022

EURGBP is consolidating. Recent gains appear to be a correction and the primary downtrend remains intact. Moving average studies highlight a bearish condition - the 50-dma has crossed below the 200-dma to confirm a bearish death cross signal. A resumption of the trend would open 0.8547, Dec 1 2022 low and a key support. The trend is oversold - a price reversal would signal scope for a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8665 the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.45/141.11 High Jun 5 / Bull channel top from Jan 16 low
• PRICE: 139.29 @ 06:31 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 138.45 Low Jun 1 and the 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 136.56 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. Attention is on key resistance at the top of a bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.11 today. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would highlight a potential top plus signal scope for a deeper pullback inside the channel. Key support to watch is 138.45, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Support

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.20/ 151.07 High Jun 5 / May 29
• PRICE: 148.74 @ 07:06 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 147.78/146.84 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone despite the latest pullback. However, the cross is trading lower today and approaching support at 148.59, the May 31 low. A break of this level would expose a firmer support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.78. A clear break of this average is required to strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, first resistance is at 150.20, the Jun 5 high. A breach would be bullish.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6733 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 31 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6710 High May 16
• RES 1: 0.6690 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6668 @ 07:58 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 0.6609 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6567/6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022

AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains following the reversal from the May 31 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared The average intersects at 0.6653. This signals scope for a stronger recovery and opens 0.6710, May 16 high. On the downside, a reversal lower is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. Clearance of this support would resume the downtrend that started on Feb 2.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading ASt Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3505/85 20-day EMA / High Jun 1
• PRICE: 1.3418 @ 08:05 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 1.3388 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3363 Low May 11
• SUP 3: 1.3315 Low May 8
• SUP 4: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following the reversal from the May 26 high of 1.3655 and is trading at its recent lows. The impulsive nature of the latest sell-off signals scope for a deeper pullback. Support at 1.3404, the May 16 has been breached and this exposes 1.3315, the May 8 low and a key support point. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.3505, the 20-day EMA, a break of this level would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Remains Above Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 136.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 2: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 134.95 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 134.63 @ 05:21 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 133.82 Low Jun 6
• SUP 2: 133.45 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 133.00 76.4%retracement of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support

Bund futures have recovered from Tuesday’s low. The initial recovery yesterday did appear to be an early indication that the recent pullback was over and that a S/T bullish theme had returned. However, price needs to break yesterday’s 134.95 high to signal scope for a climb to key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish. A breach of yesterday’s 133.82 low would instead be a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 118.130 High May 11
• RES 3: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 117.200 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 117.000 @ 05:26 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 116.590 Low Jun 5 / 6
• SUP 2: 116.400 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 116.302 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: 115.870 Low May 26

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone following the pullback from last week’s high of 117.700 on Jun 1. A continuation lower would expose support at 116.400, the May 30 low and if this level is cleared, potential would be seen for weakness towards key short-term support at 115.870, the May 26 low. On the upside, a break of 117.700 is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. First resistance is yesterday’s high of 117.200.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Pullback Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: 105.975 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.815 High Jun 4
• RES 1: 105.655 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 105.585 @ 05:47 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 105.425 Low Jun 6
• SUP 2: 105.360 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 105.330 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

Schatz futures remain below 105.875, the Jun 1 high and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 105.330, the May 26 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards the 105.00 handle. On the upside, 105.875 marks the key short-term resistance. A break would be bullish. Initial resistance is 105.655, the Jun 6 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 98.95 Low May 18
• RES 3: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 2: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 97.78 High May 23
• PRICE: 96.52 @ Close Jun 6
• SUP 1: 95.93 50.0% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 2: 94.91/21 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 94.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 93.45 1.618 projection of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 swing (cont)

Gilt futures are trading closer to recent lows. The recent recovery from 94.21, the May 26 low, has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a bear cycle. A resumption of weakness would open the 94.00 handle next. The bear trigger is 94.21, the May 26 low. Initial resistance to watch is at 97.78, the May 23 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 116.36 High Jun 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.06 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 115.15 @ Close Jun 6
• SUP 1: 114.92 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 113.36 Low 30 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.49 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures maintains a bullish theme and price is trading closer to recent highs. A break of 116.36, the Feb 2 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for gains towards the 117.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition and this reinforces current conditions. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 113.36, the May 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4362.00 High May 29
• PRICE: 4304.00 @ 06:43 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above 4216.00, the May 31 low and a key support. For now, the recent move higher appears to be a correction. Price action last week reinforced a bearish theme - support at 4252.00, the May 25 low, has been breached. The contract has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level. Resistance to watch is 4362.00, May 29 high, a break would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4327.50 High Aug 16 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4305.75 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 4290.50 @ 07:12 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 4229.00 Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: 4202.64 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4155.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4144.00 Low May 24 and a key support

S&P E-minis are in a consolidation mode but the trend condition is bullish following recent gains. Resistance at 4244.00, Feb 2 high and a bull trigger, has recently been cleared. The break reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started in October 2022. The focus is on 4327.50 next, the Aug 16 2022 high (cont). The 50-day EMA, at 4155.00 remains a key support. A break is required to signal a reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $78.73 - High Jun 5 and a short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: $75.77 @ 07:00 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: $74.18 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: $71.50/71.20 - Low May 31 / 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded higher Monday and pierced resistance at $78.50, the May 24 high, but failed to hold on to its gains. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension higher. This would open $80.08, the Apr 28 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead signal a top and this would once again expose key support at $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Fails To Hold On to Its Most Recent Gains

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $75.06 - High Jun 5 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $71.27 @ 07:08 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: $70.00 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: $67.03/63.90 - Low May 31 / 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures traded higher Monday, piercing resistance at $74.73, the May 24 high. However, the contract has failed to hold on to its latest gains. A clear break of $74.73 would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension higher. This would open $76.74, the Apr 28 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead highlight a top and expose key support at $63.90, the May 4 low. First support to watch is $70.00, the Jun 2 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trendline Support Holds For Now

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1963.1 @ 07:04 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and. The yellow metal on Monday once again tested trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. The trendline intersects at $1951.3. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5,61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.022/24.492 - High Jun 2 / Low Apr 25
• PRICE: $23.439 @ 08:11 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Low May 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver is consolidating. The trend condition is bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal following the break of $24.492, Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension reinforced the importance of this reversal pattern, highlighting a change in sentiment. Sights are set on $22.284 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. Initial firm resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point.