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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Trend Direction in EUR/GBP Remains Down

Price Signal Summary – Trend Direction in EUR/GBP Remains Down

  • A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the pullback last week appears to be a correction. First support at 4420.62, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 4368.50, Jun 26 low and a key support. The latest move higher in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to be a correction and a bear threat remains present. The contract traded sharply lower last week, clearing a number of key support levels. 4241.00, the May 31 low, has been breached highlighting a potential reversal.
  • EURUSD continues to appreciate. This week’s break of resistance at 1.1012, the Jun 22 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 31. Moving average studies remain in bull-mode position reinforcing current trend conditions. The primary trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation. The current bear cycle EURJPY remains in play and the cross is trading lower today. Sights are on a trendline support at 153.15 and 152.62, the 50-day EMA. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 24 low.
  • Gold has traded higher again today. The latest climb is considered corrective and the trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. Recent fresh lows confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The current short-term bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. The contract has recently breached resistance at $72.72, the Jun 21 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and a continuation would expose key resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high.
  • Bund futures are consolidating and maintain a softer tone following last week’s extension lower. Price has cleared key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The Gilt futures trend needle continues to point south. Last week’s break lower reinforces bearish conditions and the contract has cleared key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and maintaining the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Extends Gains

  • RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
  • RES 3: 1.1122 0.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 22 - Jul 6 pice swing
  • RES 2: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
  • RES 1: 1.1054 High May 8
  • PRICE: 1.1036 @ 05:52 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 1.0944/0909 Low Jul 10 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.0874 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

EURUSD continues to appreciate. This week’s break of resistance at 1.1012, the Jun 22 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 31. Moving average studies remain in bull-mode position reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 1.1054 next, the May 8 high, ahead of key resistance at 1.1095, the Apr 26 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.0909, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

  • RES 4: 1.3131 1.00 proj of the May 25 - Jun 16 - Jun 29 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.3090 High Apr 21
  • RES 2: 1.3035 High Apr 22 2022
  • RES 1: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
  • PRICE: 1.2962 @ 06:08 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 1.2857 Low Jul 11
  • SUP 2: 1.2726/2674 20-day EMA / Low Jul 6
  • SUP 3: 1.2596/2605 Trendline drawn from Mar 8 low / Low Jun 29
  • SUP 4: 1.2433 Low Jun 8

GBPUSD continues to climb and conditions remain bullish. This week’s break of resistance at 1.2848, the Jun 16 high, confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The focus is on 1.2977 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 1.2726, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Clears Key Support

  • RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
  • RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
  • RES 2: 0.8625/58 50-day EMA / High Jun 28 and bull trigger
  • RES 1: 0.8573/84 20-day EMA / High Jul 10
  • PRICE: 0.8514 @ 06:24 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Jul 11
  • SUP 2: 0.8484 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
  • SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, highlighting current trend conditions. The focus is on 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8584, the Jul 10 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Impulsive Bear Wave Extends

  • RES 4: 145.66 1.50 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
  • RES 3: 145.07 High Jun 30 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 144.20 High Jul 7
  • RES 1: 140.34/143.01 50-day EMA / Monday’s high
  • PRICE: 139.57 @ 06:37 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 139.18 38.2% retracement of the Mar 24 - Jun 30 bull leg
  • SUP 2: 138.76 Low Jun 9
  • SUP 3: 138.45 Low Jun 9
  • SUP 4: 137.36 50.0% retracement of the Mar 24 - Jun 30 bull leg

USDJPY maintains a bearish tone and the pair is trading lower again today as it extends the bear cycle that started Jun 30. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price is again inside the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The move signals scope for an extension towards 139.18 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 140.34, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

  • RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
  • RES 3: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
  • RES 2: 157.12/158.00 High Jul 6 / High Jun 28 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 155.67 High Jul 11
  • PRICE: 153.84 @ 06:56 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 153.15 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
  • SUP 2: 152.54 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 151.61 Low Jun 15
  • SUP 4: 151.07 High May 29

The current bear cycle EURJPY remains in play and the cross is trading lower today. Sights are on a trendline support at 153.15 and 152.62, the 50-day EMA. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 24 low. A break of the 153.15-152.65 support zone would strengthen bearish conditions and pave the way for a continuation lower. Initial resistance is seen at 155.67, Tuesday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

  • RES 4: 0.6806 High Jun 22
  • RES 3: 0.6784 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - 29 bear leg
  • RES 2: 0.6768 High Jun 23
  • RES 1: 0.6742 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 0.6706 @ 08:00 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 0.6651/6596 Low Jul 11 / Low June 29 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
  • SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
  • SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

AUDUSD short-term gains appear to be a correction and the trend condition remains bearish. The sharp sell-off between Jun 16 - 29 signals scope for a continuation lower. The bear trigger has been defined at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. A break would resume the bear leg and open 0.6562, 76.4% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally. Resistance is at today’s intraday high of 0.6742, ahead of 0.6768, the Jun 23 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Maintains A Bearish Tone

  • RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
  • RES 3: 1.3386/87 50.0% of the May 26 - Jun 27 downleg / High Jul 7
  • RES 2: 1.3378 50-dma
  • RES 1: 1.3304 High Jul 10
  • PRICE: 1.3220 @ 08:08 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 1.3200 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 1.3117 Low Jun 27 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing

USDCAD reversed course last Friday and remains weaker. The move lower on Jul 7, highlights a strong bearish pattern - an engulfing candle. This week’s follow through reinforces the pattern and suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term. The print below 1.3203, the Jul 4 low opens 1.3117, the Jun 27 low and a bear trigger. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3387, the high on Jul 7.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Continues To Point South

  • RES 4: 134.14/135.00 High Jul 3 / High Jun 27
  • RES 3: 132.79 20-day EMA
  • RES 2: 132.18/65 Low Jun 16 / High Jul 6
  • RES 1: 131.58 High Nov 11
  • PRICE: 131.02 @ 05:42 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 130.60 Low Jul 10
  • SUP 2: 130.46 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
  • SUP 3: 129.93 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
  • SUP 4: 129.49 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing

Bund futures are consolidating and maintain a softer tone following last week’s extension lower. Price has cleared key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This opens 130.46, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, reinforcing a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 132.18, the Jun 16 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Theme

  • RES 4: 116.280 High Jun 29
  • RES 3: 115.910 High Jul 3
  • RES 2: 115.550 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 115.320 Low Jun 22
  • PRICE: 114.740 @ 05:26 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 114.550 Low Jul 6
  • SUP 2: 114.432 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
  • SUP 3: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support
  • SUP 4: 114.090 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures are unchanged and remain soft following the move lower last week that confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 114.130, the Mar 6 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance is at 115.320, the Jun 22 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Is Bearish

  • RES 4: 105.185 High Jun 15
  • RES 3: 105.130 High Jun 26 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 2: 104.922 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 104.800/915 High Jul 7 / 3
  • PRICE: 104.650 @ 05:33 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 104.570 Low Jul 6
  • SUP 2: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
  • SUP 3: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support
  • SUP 4: 104.264 2.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend following last week’s extension lower. The move down confirms a resumption of the trend and a continuation of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 104.470 next, a Fibonacci projection (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 104.922, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

  • RES 4: 96.19 High Jun 29
  • RES 3: 95.55 High Jul 3
  • RES 2: 94.60 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 93.88 Low Jun 20 and a key breakout level
  • PRICE: 92.65 @ Close Jul 11
  • SUP 1: 92.09 Low Jul 7
  • SUP 2: 92.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 91.80 1.382 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)
  • SUP 4: 91.36 1.50 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)

The Gilt futures trend needle continues to point south. Last week’s break lower reinforces bearish conditions and the contract has cleared key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and maintaining the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for a move to 91.80 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 93.88. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Bear Threat Remains Present

  • RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 116.52 High Jul 3
  • RES 2: 115.02 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 114.61 Low Jun 15
  • PRICE: 113.02 @ Close Jul 11
  • SUP 1: 112.95 Low Jul 11
  • SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
  • SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 111.00 Round number support

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures last week reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed an extension of the reversal from 117.60, the Jun 26 high. Yesterday’s move lower strengthens current conditions. 113.15, 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 26 bull leg, has been breached. The break opens 111.78, the May 26 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 115.02, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average would ease the current bearish threat.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
  • RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont) and key resistance
  • RES 2: 4371.00 High Jul 6
  • RES 1: 4329.40 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 4328.00 @ 05:45BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 4220.00 Low Jul 7
  • SUP 2: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
  • SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

The latest move higher in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to be a correction and a bear threat remains present. The contract traded sharply lower last week, clearing a number of key support levels. 4241.00, the May 31 low, has been breached highlighting a potential reversal, opening 4208.50, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is seen at 4329.40, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bull Trend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 4562.88 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
  • RES 3: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
  • RES 2: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
  • RES 1: 4498.00 High Jun 30 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 4476.00 @ 06:51 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 4420.62/4368.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and a key support
  • SUP 2: 4336.46 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 4327.06 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
  • SUP 4: 4269.50 Low Jun 2

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the pullback last week appears to be a correction. First support at 4420.62, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 4368.50, Jun 26 low and a key support. On the upside, the bull trigger is at 4498.00, the Jun 16 high. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 4532.08, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Bullish Extension

  • RES 4: $83.77 - High Apr 19
  • RES 3: $82.06 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 downleg
  • RES 2: $80.58 - High Apr 26
  • RES 1: $79.94 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 downleg
  • PRICE: $79.33 @ 06:59 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
  • SUP 2: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
  • SUP 3: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
  • SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Bullish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and the contract traded higher yesterday and again today. This week’s gains have resulted in a move above resistance at $78.47, the Jun 5 high. The clear break paves the way for a climb towards $79.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term support has been defined at $75.03, the Jul 6 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible top.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Approaching Key Resistance

  • RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
  • RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
  • RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
  • RES 1: $75.70 - High Jun 5 and a key resistance
  • PRICE: $74.79 @ 07:04 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: $69.69/66.96 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
  • SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
  • SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

The current short-term bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. The contract has recently breached resistance at $72.72, the Jun 21 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and a continuation would expose key resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. A break of this level would highlight an important bullish break. On the downside, key short-term support is at $66.96, the Jun 12 low. Initial support lies at $69.69, the Jul 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4
  • RES 3: $2022.6 - High May 12
  • RES 2: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key resistance
  • RES 1: $1943.9 - 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: $1938.1 @ 07:21 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29
  • SUP 2: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
  • SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
  • SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Gold has traded higher again today. The latest climb is considered corrective and the trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. Recent fresh lows confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting current medium-term sentiment. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is $1943.9, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

  • RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
  • RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
  • RES 1: $23.412/24.530 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 9 and key resistance
  • PRICE: $23.232 @ 07:24 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: $22.527/111 - Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
  • SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
  • SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver maintains a firmer short-term tone and the metal traded higher yesterday. Short-term gains still appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is at $23.412, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement with key resistance at $24.530, the Jun 9 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would open $22.111, the Jun 23 low and bear trigger.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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