MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - US Stocks Clear S/T Support
Price Signal Summary – US Stocks Clear S/T Support
- S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower last Thursday and the contract is trading just above its recent low. Price has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - an important short-term bearish development. The break lower signals scope for an extension. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. Last week’s move down, resulted in a breach of support at 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has also been cleared.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last Thursday’s sell-off reinforces the bear condition. The breach of 1.2908, the Oct 23 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear leg and exposed 1.2846, 76.4% of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. EURGBP traded sharply higher last week, resulting in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a strong short-term bullish development. Price has also pierced a key resistance at 0.8434, the Oct 3 high and a potential trend reversal point. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation signal that reinforces the current trend condition. Note that the pair has cleared 0.6576, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including Monday’s gains, appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures are in consolidation mode, however, a bearish theme remains intact. Price has breached 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The break, together with the subsequent extension, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. A steep sell-off in Gilts last week, confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract has traded through the 94.00 handle and sights are set on 92.99 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 2: 1.0938 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0880/0915 20-day EMA / High Nov 04
- PRICE: 1.0879 @ 05:35 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 1.0808/0761 Low Oct 30 / 23 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
EURUSD traded higher Monday. However, recent gains continue to appear corrective. The trend condition is bearish and moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Resistance to watch is 1.0880, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced and a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger recovery, towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0938. The bear trigger is unchanged at 1.0761, the Oct 23 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3009/3046 20- and 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2962 @ 05:44 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 1.2846/44 76.4% of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg / Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 1.2762 Low Aug 13
- SUP 4: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last Thursday’s sell-off reinforces the bear condition. The breach of 1.2908, the Oct 23 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear leg and exposed 1.2846, 76.4% of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 1.2799, the Aug 15 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.3046, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8499 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 / Oct 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8448 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 0.8395 @ 06:01 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 0.8360/8295 20-day EMA / Low Oct 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded sharply higher last week, resulting in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a strong short-term bullish development. Price has also pierced a key resistance at 0.8434, the Oct 3 high and a potential trend reversal point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 0.8464, the Sep 11 high. Initial support lies at 0.8363, the 20-day EMA. Key support is unchanged at 0.8295, the Oct 18 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 153.88 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 152.36 @ 06:32 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 151.46 Low Oct 25
- SUP 2: 150.86/149.11 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 147.35 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4
The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has pierced 153.40, the 61.8% retracement of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 149.11, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 150.86.
EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.69 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 165.73 @ 06:46 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 164.11/163.06 20-and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
The EURJPY trend set-up is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforced current conditions. Initial support to watch lies at 164.11, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 168.01, the Jul 26 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Flag Formation
- RES 4: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6691 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6648 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6612 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 0.6537 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation signal that reinforces the current trend condition. Note that the pair has cleared 0.6576, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. A continuation lower would open 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6648, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.4167 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1
- PRICE: 1.3889 @ 07:55 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 1.3875/3822 Low Nov 04 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
The USDCAD trend outlook is bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3822, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback is considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 132.92 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a recent breakout point
- PRICE: 131.72 @ 05:16 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 131.15 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2 131.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 130.80 1.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures are in consolidation mode, however, a bearish theme remains intact. Price has breached 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The break, together with the subsequent extension, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early October and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 131.00 handle next, the Jul 26 low. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at 132.65, the Sep 2 low.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.874 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 118.170 @ 05:24 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 117.680 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures last week highlights a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off paves the way for an extension lower near-term and sights are on 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.580, the Sep 3 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.665/789 High Oct 1 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.565 @ 05:32 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 106.375 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.027 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact, although the trend is oversold. Recent weakness reinforced current conditions and the move down resulted in a break of support at 106.580, the Oct 10 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started early October and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on the 106.315, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.789, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 97.23 High Oct 22
- RES 3: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 2: 96.04 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 94.73/95.83 High Nov 1 / Low Oct 10
- PRICE: 94.02 @ Close Nov 4
- SUP 1: 93.18 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 92.99 2.00 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A steep sell-off in Gilts last week, confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract has traded through the 94.00 handle and sights are set on 92.99 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. On the upside, the Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible short-term base.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Reversal Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 119.50 @ Close Nov 4
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.16 Low Sep 2 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 117.70 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures maintains a softer tone, The contract traded sharply lower last week resulting in a breach of 119.97, the Oct 11 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and highlights a possible reversal. The move down has exposed 118.64, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 121.53, the Oct 25 high, where a break is required to cancel the bearish threat. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 5015.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 4936.69 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4872.00 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
- SUP 3: 4746.94 .61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. Last week’s move down, resulted in a breach of support at 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has also been cleared. This exposes 4815.50 next, the 50.0% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 5015.00, the Oct 29 high, where a break is required to highlight a reversal. First resistance is at 4936.69, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Short-Term Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5816.84/5927.25 20-day EMA / High Oct 17 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 5754.50 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 5637.60 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 5600.25 Low Sep 12
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower last Thursday and the contract is trading just above its recent low. Price has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - an important short-term bearish development. The break lower signals scope for an extension and has exposed the next support at 5724.00, the Oct 2 low. Clearance of this level would open 5637.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 5816.84, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.08 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $75.05 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures are holding on to their recent gains. Despite the latest recovery, a bearish tone remains intact. A resumption of weakness would expose support at $69.68, the Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher is required to refocus attention on the key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.08, the Oct 24 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.34 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $71.45 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including Monday’s gains, appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would instead refocus attention on the key S/T resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is $72.34, Oct 24 high.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence Remains Intact
- RES 4: $2832.8 - 3.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $2790.1 - High Oct 31
- PRICE: $2741.1 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: $2724.8 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2712.7 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2673.3 - Low Oct 17
- SUP 4: $2638.6 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $2800.0 handle next. Firm support is $2712.7, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a short-term top.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.481 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: $32.251 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $31.616 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $30.152 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. The metal has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight scope for a deeper retracement and open £31.616, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $34.903, the Oct 23 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.