MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Bulls Return

Price Signal Summary - USD Bulls Return

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone however the recent pullback suggests the contract remains in a corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would open 1.4155.50, the Jun 3 low and the 50-day EMA at 4139.35. The EMA represents a key support level. A clear break of the average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement.
• In FX, EURUSD fell sharply mid-week on the back of broad post-Fed USD strength, confirming a bearish cycle. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlights a bearish theme and today's extension lower reinforces the current bearish tone. The focus is on 1.1919, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. GBPUSD weakness accelerated Wednesday, with prices breaking below the 50-day EMA. The move through the average strengthens a short-term bearish outlook and opens 1.3935, the 100-DMA and 1.3887, May 7 low. USDJPY traded higher yesterday extending the recovery from 109.19, Jun 7 low. The break of 110.33, Jun 4 high exposes 110.97, this year's high on Mar 31.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply lower yesterday reinforcing the current bearish cycle. The break lower has resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA signalling scope for a deeper pullback towards $1796.8 next, 50% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally. Trend conditions in oil remains bullish and the recent pullback is likely a correction. Brent (Q1) focus is on $75.60, Apr 25 high 2019 (cont). WTI (N1) attention is on $73.20, 3.236 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing.
• Within FI, Bund futures are weaker and remain below recent highs. The current pullback is still considered corrective but there appears scope for a deeper pullback. The next support is seen at 171.37, Jun 3 low. The pullback in Gilt futures exposes 126.70, Jun 3 and a key near-term support.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2266/85 High May 25 and the bull trigger / High Jan 8
• RES 3: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 1.2147 High Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.2006 High Jun 17
• PRICE: 1.1913 @ 06:00 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.1892 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 1.1871/67 2.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.1837 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally
• SUP 4: 1.1795 Low Apr 6

EURUSD fell sharply Wednesday and remained under pressure yesterday. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlights a bearish theme and this week's sell-off reinforces current bearish sentiment. The focus is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, the Mar 31 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.2006, yesterday's intraday high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Under Pressure

• RES 4: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 3: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 1.4035 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3902 @ 06:10 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.3896 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 1.3858 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 1.3801 Low May 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3717 Low Apr 16

GBPUSD remains weak following sharp losses Wednesday and Thursday. This week's price action has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.4006, low May 13 and a recent key support. Price has also cleared the 100-DMA. Scope is seen for an extension lower towards 1.3858 next, May 6 low and 1.3801, May 3low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 1.4035, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Breaches Support

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8629 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8561 @ 06:23 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.8542 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8420 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP traded through support at 0.8561, low May 12. The move lower signals the end of the recent consolidation and strengthens a bearish case. The focus is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally. A break of this level would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8629, Jun 15 high where a break is required to ease the developing bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 2: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 110.89 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 110.21 @ 06:29 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 109.81 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 109.19/20 Low Jun 7 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY traded higher Wednesday, but faded through the Thursday session. The outlook remains bullish. The break of 110.33, Jun 4 high negates recent bearish threats and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend since Apr 23. Attention is on 110.89, 1.0% 10-dma envelope and key resistance at 110.97, the year high print on Mar 31. A break of 110.97 would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Support is at 109.81, Wednesday's low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 3: 133.76/134.13 High Jun 10 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 132.12 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.13 @ 06:40 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 130.99 May 5 low
• SUP 2: 130.39 100-dma
• SUP 3: 130.57 Low Apr 27
• SUP 4: 130.34 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY losses extended Thursday and the outlook is bearish. Yesterday's sharp losses resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and importantly a breach of the bull channel support at 131.78. The channel is drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. This signals scope for a deeper pullback and attention turns to 130.99, May 5 low and the 100-dma at 130.39. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 132.12, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh 2021 Lows

• RES 4: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• RES 3: 0.7720 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 0.7561 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7537 @ 06:54 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.7511 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7462 Low Dec 21, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020

AUDUSD remains under pressure registering fresh lows again today. The pair has traded below key support at 0.7532 Apr 1 low and price has also breached the 200-dma. The move lower confirms a resumption of the reversal that occurred Feb 25 and signals scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7462, the Dec 21, 2020 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7561, today's intraday high.

USDCAD TECHS: Reversal Extends

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.2501 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2404/06 2.0% 10-dma env / 61.8% of Apr 21 - Jun1 sell-off
• PRICE: 1.2372 @ 07:14 BST Jun 19
• SUP 1: 1.2237 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2161 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2057/2007 Low Jun 7 / Low May 18
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number

USDCAD is holding onto this week's gains following strong gains Wednesday and Thursday. The break of 1.2203, May 6 high has confirmed a S/T reversal and the pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing current bullish conditions. This opens up scope for a climb towards 1.2406 and 1.2501, Fibonacci retracements. Note the 2.0% 10-dma envelope intersects at 1.2404. On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.2237, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Finds Support Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.16 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 172.80 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 172.50 @ 05:12 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 171.80/37 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 170.56 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 170.27 Low May 21

Bund futures remain below recent highs but did find support yesterday. The recent pullback is still considered corrective and a firm short-term support has been defined at 171.80, yesterday's low. Note that price has found support just below the 50-day EMA, reinforcing the importance of 171.80. A break of the lower would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and bull trigger is at 173.16, Jun 11 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Trading Closer To The Week's Lows

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.390 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 134.180 @ 05:08 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 134.050 Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures remain closer to this week's lows but the contract did find some support yesterday. The recent pullback is considered corrective however a bearish risk remains present. Price is below the 20-day EMA and attention is on support at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 134.510, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Attention Is On Support

• RES 4: 112.235 2.00 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 112.213 1.764 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 112.216 1.618 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 112.210 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 112.165 @ 05:13 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 112.150 Low Jun 16,17 and between Jun 4 - 8
• SUP 2: 112.145 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 112.135 Low May 27, 28 and 31 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 112.120 Low May 17

Schatz futures are trading near recent lows and remain below the Jun 11 high of 112.210. Attention is on support at 112.135, the May 27, 28 and 31 lows. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose the May low of 112.120. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 112.210, Jun 11 high where a break is required to confirm a bullish price structure and resume the recent uptrend.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Approaching A Key Support

• RES 4: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.39 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 127.87 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 127.33 @ Close Jun 17
• SUP 1: 126.91 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

On Jun 9 Gilt futures cleared 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. The move through 127.74 confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, highlighting a bull theme. This week's pullback, although deep, is considered a correction with key S/T trend support at 126.70, Jun 3 low and a bullish theme remains in place while this level holds. A break would open 126.12 instead, low May 19.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 152.47 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.38 @ Close Jun 17
• SUP 1: 150.75 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28
• SUP 4: 148.80 Low May 25

BTP futures remain in their current bullish cycle following the strong reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19. With bulls in control, current dips are considered corrective and are allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key near-term support lies at 150.11, Jun 8 low. The bull trigger has been defined at 152.47, Jun 14 high where a break would open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection and the Feb high (cont) of 153.82 further out.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4290.00 High Jan 14, 2008
• RES 3: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 2: 4246.63 Bull channel top drawn off the Feb 26 low
• RES 1: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• PRICE: 4158.00 @ 05:52 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 4087.94 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4016.00 Low May 27
• SUP 3: 4001.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3986.50 Channel base from the Feb 26 low

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher once again yesterday as the contract extends its climb and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus remains on 4175.00, the Nov 26 2008 low. On the downside, firm trend support is unchanged at 3844.00, May 13 low. Initial support lies at 4087.94, the 20-day EMA. A break of the average would signal scope for a corrective deeper.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 4349.89 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 2: 4264.41 1.618 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 4258.25 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 4217.25 @ 06:59 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 4155.50 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 4142.21/4046.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4005.50 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone however the recent pullback suggests the contract has entered a corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would open 1.4155.50, the Jun 3 low and the 50-day EMA at 4142.21. The EMA represents a key support level. A clear break of the average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 4258.25, Jun 15 high and this level marks the bull trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $76.97 1.23 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $75.60 - High Apr 25, 2019 (cont)
• RES 1: $74.96 - High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $72.72 @ 07:44 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $71.36 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $69.90 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 3: $67.75 - Low May 25
• SUP 4: $64.50 - Low May 21 and key support

Brent crude futures traded lower yesterday and the contract appears to have entered a short-term corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would expose the 20-day EMA at $71.36, where a break would suggest potential for a deeper pullback towards $69.90, May 18 high and a recent breakout level. For bulls, key resistance has been defined at $74.96, Jun 16 high. A breach would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Watching The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $74.47 - 3.382 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $73.20 - 3.236 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.99 - High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $70.80 @ 09:21 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $69.01 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.02 - High May 18
• SUP 3: $66.01 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $65.25 - Low May 26

WTI crude has pulled back from Wednesday's high and appears to have entered a corrective phase. Attention turns to the 20-day EMA at $69.01. If breached potential would exist for a deeper pullback towards $67.02, May 18 high and former breakout level. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger remains $72.99, Jun 16. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 2: $1860.4 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $1785.6 07:23 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $1767.3 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the MAr 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold traded sharply lower again yesterday further reinforcing the current bearish cycle. The break lower this week has resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA signalling scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on $1756.2, Apr 29 low and $1733.5, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $1825.4, Jun 17 high ahead of the 20-day EMA at $1860.4.

SILVER TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.267 - High Jun 11
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $27.245 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.425 @ 09:40 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $25.771 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: $25.681 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains weak following yesterday's sharp sell-off. Tuesday's move lower resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The EMA highlighted a strong area of support and levels below it also represent a zone where demand potentially exists, assuming broader sentiment remains bullish. Currently, the break lower is bearish and attention is on $25.680 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $27.245.