MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Resumes Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Resumes Downtrend

• The current trend condition in S&P E-minis remains bullish. Price has recently breached 4119.50, Mar 6 high, reinforcing a positive theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain firm and price is trading at this week’s highs. The continued appreciation strengthens the bullish significance of the recent break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls.
• GBPUSD continues to appreciate and maintain this week’s bulls cycle. The pair has traded through the recent high of 1.2525 (Apr 4) to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend and this reinforces the bullish significance of the recent breach of 1.2448. USDJPY remains below Wednesday's high of 134.05. The latest pullback adds to evidence that the latest recovery appeared corrective in nature and that the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. USDCAD remains bearish and Thursday's sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3407, the Apr 4 low has been cleared and this maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.3275 - mid-February lows and 1.3262, the Feb 2 low.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and Thursday’s break of resistance at $2032.1, Apr 5 high, confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are set on the next key resistance at $2070.4 WTI futures remain in a bull cycle. This week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. This confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached.
• Bund futures are trading at this week’s lows. Price is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.84 and has pierced key short-term support at 134.70, the Mar 31 low. A break of this level would signal scope for weakness towards 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract is trading closer to this week’s lows. Recent bearish activity has resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.72 and price has pierced support at 102.74

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Fresh YTD Highs

• RES 4: 1.1274 61.8% of the Jun 1 2021 - Sep 28 2022 bear trend
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• PRICE: 1.1069 @ 05:41 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.0977 Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 1.0911/0867 Low Apr 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.0776 50-day EMA

EURUSD continues to climb. The pair has breached key resistance at 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and more importantly, confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend that started Sep 28 last year. This signals scope for a climb to 1.1076, the Apr 1 2022 high and 1.1185 further out, the Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0867.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 1.2687 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2546 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2543 @ 05:57 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.2479/1.2399 Low Apr 13 / 12
• SUP 2: 1.2357 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.2239 50-day EMA

GBPUSD continues to appreciate and maintain this week’s bulls cycle. The pair has traded through the recent high of 1.2525 (Apr 4) to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend and this reinforces the bullish significance of the recent breach of 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad 3.5 months range. The focus is on 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Key short-term support is at 1.2357, 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8856/66 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 0.8839 High Apr 13
• PRICE: 0.8828 @ 06:09 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 0.8795 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8763/8729 Low Apr 11 / 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP traded higher again Thursday. The cross has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA at 0.8795 and traded above 0.8829, the Mar 30 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and attention turn to trendline resistance at 0.8856. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high. On the downside, key support lies at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. Initial support lies at 0.8795.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.05 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 132.51 @ 06:32 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 131.83/130.64 Low Apr 10 / 5 and a key support
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

USDJPY remains below Wednesday's high of 134.05. The latest pullback adds to evidence that the latest recovery appeared corrective in nature and that the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. A continuation lower would open 130.64, the Apr 5 low. On the upside, clearance of 134.05 would be seen as a bullish development and expose 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.99 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 146.89 High Apr 13
• PRICE: 146.67 @ 06:55 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 145.77 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 144.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.39 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY continued to climb Thursday as the cross extended the break of the 136.00 handle. This week’s move through resistance at 145.57, Mar 2 high, strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 147.10, the Nov 9 2022 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 142.55, the Apr 6 low. Initial firm support lies at 144.20, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Rally Bucks Broader Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6797 High Apr 13
• PRICE: 0.6773 @ 08:01 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 0.6685/6620 Low Apr 14 / 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD topped the 50-day EMA convincingly on Thursday amid broad USD weakness. This works against the broader downtrend, leaving a break below 0.6565 - the Mar 3 low - a requirement for any resumption and continuation of the bear cycle. A continuation higher would open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high and 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is Thursday’s low at 0.6685. A breach would be seen as an early reversal signal.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching The February Lows

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3617 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 1.3549 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3407/3448 Low Apr 4 / High Apr 13
• PRICE: 1.3319 @ 07:25 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.3318 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 2022

USDCAD remains bearish and Thursday's sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3407, the Apr 4 low has been cleared and this maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.3275 - mid-February lows and 1.3262, the Feb 2 low. Note that the RSI is close to flagging the pair as technically oversold for the first time in over 18 months. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3407.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 136.88/138.09 High Apr 11 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 135.84 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.91 @ 05:18 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 134.66 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures are trading at this week’s lows. Price is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.84 and has pierced key short-term support at 134.70, the Mar 31 low. A break of this level would signal scope for weakness towards 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a move above 138.09, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and would signal scope for gains above 138.00. Key resistance is still far off at 140.30, the Mar 20 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 1: 118.420/119.190 High Apr 11 / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.490 @ 05:13 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 117.330/200 Low Apr 12 / Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures traded lower again Wednesday. For now, the contract remains above support at 117.200, the Mar 31 low. A break of this level would threaten a recent bullish theme and open 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 119.190, the Mar 27 high and a trigger for a stronger short-term climb - this would open 119.307, a Fibonacci retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 106.695 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 106.315 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.736/920 20-day EMA / High Apr 11
• PRICE: 105.540 @ 05:31 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 105.465 Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures maintain a softer tone, however - for now - price remains above the recent low of 105.465 (Mar 31). The contract has traded below support at the 20-day EMA, at 105.736. A continuation lower and a break of 105.465 would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 105.336, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a recent bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.04 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 3: 104.97 High Mar 6 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 104.16 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 103.72/104.97 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
• PRICE: 103.08 @ Close Apr 13
• SUP 1: 102.54 Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract is trading closer to this week’s lows. Recent bearish activity has resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.72 and price has pierced support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would open 102.31, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance is seen at 104.97, the Apr 6 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• PRICE: 114.54 @ Close Apr 13
• SUP 1: 114.04 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures failed to hold on to last week’s high of 116.97 on Apr 6. The contract traded lower Thursday and price is approaching 114.04, the Mar 31 low and a key short-term support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance is unchanged at 117.17, the Mar 24 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• PRICE: 4321.00 @ 06:27 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 4229.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 4222 10 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4183.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain firm and price is trading at this week’s highs. The continued appreciation strengthens the bullish significance of the recent break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. Sights are on 4324.50, the Jan 13 2022 high (cont) and 4381.50, the Jan 5 2022 high (cont). Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4209.70, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Northbound

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4177.75 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 4170.25 @ 06:51 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 4091.72 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4061.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

The current trend condition in S&P E-minis remains bullish. Price has recently breached 4119.50, Mar 6 high, reinforcing a positive theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension to 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4061.00, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $87.49 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $86.48 @ 06:55 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $83.50 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures remain firm following this week’s gains and break of resistance at $86.44, the Apr 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $83.50, the Apr 3 low and a gap high on the daily chart. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Heading North

• RES 4: $89.23 - High Aug 25 2022
• RES 3: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 2: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 1: $83.53 - High Jan 23 and key resistance
• PRICE: $82.52 @ 07:03 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $79.00 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle. This week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. This confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached. The focus is on $85.01, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at $79.00, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart.

GOLD TECHS: Gold Approaches It's All-Time High

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2048.7 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $2044.0 @ 07:10 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $1981.7/1971.9 - Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1949.7 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: $1927.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and Thursday’s break of resistance at $2032.1, Apr 5 high, confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are set on the next key resistance at $2070.4, the Mar 8 2022 high. This is just ahead of the all-time high of $2075.5. Key short-term support has been defined at $1981.7, the Apr 10 low.

SILVER TECHS: Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.075 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $25.877 @ 08:08 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $25.044 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: $24.111 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.153 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains firm and the metal continues to appreciate, reinforcing the uptrend. The recent break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $24.111, the 20-day EMA. The trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.