Free Trial

MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

  • A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and Wednesday’s abrupt sell-off appears to be a correction. This week’s fresh trend highs, confirm once again a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains confirmed, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and this has maintained the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
  • EURUSD maintains a positive tone and the recovery that started Dec 8 is a bullish development. Sights are on key short-term resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. EURGBP has traded sharply this week and in the process breached resistance at 0.8647, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average highlights a stronger short-term reversal and signals potential for a continuation higher. The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and price is trading at this week’s lows. The pair has recently cleared the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. That break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
  • The Dec 13 reversal in Gold signals the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback and highlights a bullish theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is $75.98, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
  • The uptrend in Bund futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Thursday, confirming a resumption of the trend and an extension of the recent break of resistance at 135.81, Dec 7 high. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract gapped higher on Wednesday. This confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
  • RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
  • RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10
  • RES 1: 1.1017 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.0997 @ 05:52 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 1.0885/1.0817 20- and 50-day EMA values
  • SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
  • SUP 4: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

EURUSD maintains a positive tone and the recovery that started Dec 8 is a bullish development. Sights are on key short-term resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.1065, the Aug 10 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Initial support is at 1.0885, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

  • RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
  • RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
  • RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10
  • RES 1: 1.2800 High Aug 22
  • PRICE: 1.2684 @ 05:59 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 1.2612 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13 and key support
  • SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
  • SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

The trend outlook in GBPUSD is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.2800 next, the Aug 22 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2612, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of This Week’s Gains

  • RES 4: 0.8814 High May 4
  • RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 and key resistance
  • RES 2: 0.8716 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Dec 11 sell-off
  • RES 1: 0.8686 High Dec 21
  • PRICE: 0.8668 @ 06:15 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 0.8618 Low Dec 20
  • SUP 2: 0.8571/8549 Low Dec 15 / 11 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
  • SUP 4: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support

EURGBP has traded sharply this week and in the process breached resistance at 0.8647, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average highlights a stronger short-term reversal and signals potential for a continuation higher. Sights are on 0.8716 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. Initial support is seen at 0.8618, the Dec 20 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish

  • RES 4: 148.51 High Nov 30
  • RES 3: 147.32 High Dec 7
  • RES 2: 146.59 High Dec 11 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 1: 144.96/145.26 High Dec 19 / 76.4% of the Dec 11 - 14 sell-off
  • PRICE: 142.27 @ 06:30 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 141.87 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 140.97/71 Low Dec 14 / 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
  • SUP 3: 140.23 2.00 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
  • SUP 4: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY has slipped further from Tuesday’s high. The recent recovery from 140.97, the Dec 14 low, appears to be a correction and trend conditions remain bearish. On Dec 14, the pair breached support at 141.71, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 13. Sights are on 140.71, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.59, the Dec 11 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 161.78 High Dec 1
  • RES 3: 159.93 High Dec 4
  • RES 2: 159.01 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 158.67 High Dec 12
  • PRICE: 156.41 @ 06:45 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 155.39/153.23 Low Dec 19 / 7 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
  • SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded sharply higher Tuesday breaching resistance at 157.68, the Dec 11 high. The cross has since pulled back. The next key hurdle to watch is 158.67, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal. Below 158.67, the recent recovery appears to be a correction and trend signals remain bearish. A continuation lower and a break of 153.23, the Dec 7 low and bear trigger, would resume the downtrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Heading North

  • RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 0.6847 High Jul 20
  • RES 2: 0.6821 High Jul 27
  • RES 1: 0.6804 High Dec 21
  • PRICE: 0.6778 @ 14:25 GMT Dec 21
  • SUP 1: 0.6779 Low Dec 21
  • SUP 2: 0.6644/6526 20-day EMA / Low Dec 07 and key support
  • SUP 3: 0.6494 Low Nov 20
  • SUP 4: 0.6453 Low Nov 17

Bullish trend conditions in AUDUSD remain intact and yesterday’s rally reinforces current conditions. This week’s gains mark an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6821 next, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6644, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

  • RES 4: 1.3712 High Nov 24
  • RES 3: 1.3619 High Dec 7 and 12 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3576 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.3415/3495 High Dec 15 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.3279 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
  • SUP 2: 1.3184 Low Aug 1
  • SUP 3: 1.3175 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 4: 1.3151 Low Jul 31

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and price is trading at this week’s lows. The pair has recently cleared the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. That break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3184, the Aug 1 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3619, the Dec 7 / 12 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Bull Trend Intact

  • RES 4: 139.04 3.618 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
  • RES 3: 138.76 3.50 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
  • RES 2: 138.49 3.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
  • RES 1: 138.21 High Dec 21
  • PRICE: 137.70 @ 05:59 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 136.59 Low Dec 18
  • SUP 2: 135.81/135.18 Low Dec 15 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 133.42 Low Dec 4

The uptrend in Bund futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Thursday, confirming a resumption of the trend and an extension of the recent break of resistance at 135.81, Dec 7 high. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 138.49, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 134.37, the Dec 8 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Extends

  • RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
  • RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
  • RES 2: 119.832 0.764 proj of the Nov 24 - Dec 7 - 8 price swing
  • RES 1: 119.530 High Dec 22
  • PRICE: 119280 @ 05:38 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 118.730 Low Dec 18
  • SUP 2: 118.125 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 117.510 Low Dec 4

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the contract traded higher Thursday. The continued appreciation confirms, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 119.832, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 117.800, the Dec 8 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Northbound

  • RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
  • RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
  • RES 2: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
  • RES 1: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
  • PRICE: 106.435 @ 05:38 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 106.280/099 Low Dec 18 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 105.955 Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
  • SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has cleared 106.495, the Dec 14 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 106.527, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 105.955, Dec 13 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Impulsive Bull Run Intact

  • RES 4: 104.00 Psychological round number
  • RES 3: 103.81 2.236 proj of the Nov 30 - Dec 6 - Dec 11 price swing
  • RES 2: 103.44 76.4% of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 downleg (cont)
  • RES 1: 103.40 High Dec 21
  • PRICE: 102.97 @ Close Dec 21
  • SUP 1: 100.93 Low Dec 18
  • SUP 2: 100.20 High Dec 13 and gap high
  • SUP 3: 99.47 20-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level

The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract gapped higher on Wednesday. This confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 103.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 100.20, the Dec 13 high. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Fresh Trend High

  • RES 4: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
  • RES 3: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
  • RES 2: 120.97 2.618 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
  • RES 1: 120.67 High Dec 21
  • PRICE: 120.31 @ Close Dec 21
  • SUP 1: 118.54/117.18 Low Dec 18 / High Dec 13 and gap high
  • SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 114.13 Low Nov 30
  • SUP 4: 112.70 Low Nov 24

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the contract traded higher yesterday. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 117.22, Dec 7 high and a bull trigger. The breach maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 120.97, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key S/T support has been defined at 115.70, the Dec 8 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
  • RES 1: 4634.00 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 4553.00 @ 06:05 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 4530.00 Low Dec 20
  • SUP 2: 4509.10 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 4447.00 Low Dec 5
  • SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains confirmed, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and this has maintained the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4636.70, a long-term Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 4509.10, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Trend Direction Remains Up

  • RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
  • RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
  • RES 1: 4830.75 High Dec 20
  • PRICE: 4789.25 @ 06:52 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 4743.25 Low Dec 20
  • SUP 2: 4692.70 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
  • SUP 4: 4591.56 50-day EMA

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and Wednesday’s abrupt sell-off appears to be a correction. This week’s fresh trend highs, confirm once again a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. Sights are on 4854.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4692.70, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Watching Resistance

  • RES 4: $87.12 - High Nov 3
  • RES 3: $87.00 - Round number resistance
  • RES 2: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 1: $80.51 - 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: $80.09 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: $75.76 - Low Dec 18
  • SUP 2: $72.29/71.45 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
  • SUP 3: $69.86 - Low May 4 and a key support
  • SUP 4: $66.90 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures are trading closer to their recent highs and a corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $80.51, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a stronger reversal. On the downside, a reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention of the key support and bear trigger at $72.29, the Dec 13 low. A break of this level would open $71.45 next, the Jun 23 low.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Gains Considered Corrective

  • RES 4: $82.64 - High Nov 3
  • RES 3: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: $75.98 - 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: $75.37 - High Dec 20
  • PRICE: $74.62 @ 07:07 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: $70.99 - Low Dec 18
  • SUP 2: $67.98/07 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
  • SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
  • SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is $75.98, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The bear trigger lies at $67.98, the Dec 13 low. A break of this level would open $65.24, the May 4 low and a key support.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

  • RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
  • RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
  • RES 2: $2073.4 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
  • RES 1: $2055.0 - Intraday high
  • PRICE: $2047.9 @ 08:11 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13
  • SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
  • SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
  • SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

The Dec 13 reversal in Gold signals the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback and highlights a bullish theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. A break of this level would resume the primary bull trend. Initial firm support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

  • RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
  • RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
  • RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: $24.519/25.761 - 61.8% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg / High Dec 4
  • PRICE: $24.360 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
  • SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
  • SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver rallied on Dec 13, highlighting a reversal and this week’s push higher reinforces a developing bullish theme. The Dec 13 price pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, the pattern signals potential for a continuation of the upleg. Sights are on $24.519, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $25.761, the Dec 4 high. Key support lies at $22.510, the Dec 13 low.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.