MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Bias Remains Lower

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Bias Remains Lower

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and the contract is holding on to this week’s gains. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA and this has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract traded higher yesterday. Futures have cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger.
• GBPUSD is unchanged and is trading just below recent highs. The short-term outlook remains bullish. The recovery from 1.1842, the Jan 6 low and key support, highlighted an early reversal and Monday’s gains reinforces the signal that suggests the end of the recent bear cycle between Dec 14 - Jan 6. USDJPY continues to trade below 134.77, the Jan 6 high. The pullback and weak close on Friday, reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that recent gains have been a correction. AUDUSD is consolidating but holding on to its recent gains. A bullish theme remains intact. The pair has cleared 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and this confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal continues to trade higher, extending the current uptrend. This week’s move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. WTI futures traded higher Wednesday to extend the recent recovery. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of resistance at $81.50, the Jan 3 high and a bull trigger.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and yesterday’s climb reinforces current conditions. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures resumed their uptrend Wednesday and cleared initial resistance at 102.78, the Jan 6 high. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention turns to 104.05, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Still Climbing

• RES 4: 1.0851 High Apr 25, 2022
• RES 3: 1.0846 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.0787 High May 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0776 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 1.0770 @ 05:41 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.0626 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6
• SUP 3: 1.0471/61 50-day EMA / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

EURUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. The continuation higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The recent break of the bull trigger, at 1.0735, the Dec 15 high, maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The focus is on 1.0787, the May 30, 2022 high. Key support has been defined at 1.0484, the Jan 6 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2242/2303 High Dec 19 / 76.4% of Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2210 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 1.2160 @ 05:56 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.2085 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1980/49 50-day EMA / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD is unchanged and is trading just below recent highs. The short-term outlook remains bullish. The recovery from 1.1842, the Jan 6 low and key support, highlighted an early reversal and Monday’s gains reinforces the signal that suggests the end of the recent bear cycle between Dec 14 - Jan 6. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a broader uptrend. Sights are on 1.2242 next, the Dec 19 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8882 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 0.8856 @ 06:06 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 0.8792/69 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.8739 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 0.8646 High Dec 8

EURGBP traded above recent highs on Wednesday before pulling back. The outlook is bullish. Last month's break of 0.8829, the Nov 9 high, reinforced a bullish theme. The move higher opens 0.8907 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8739, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Signal Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 137.48 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 136.60 200-dma
• RES 2: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan Downleg
• RES 1: 133.33 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.68 @ 06:37 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 131.31 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.44 1.236 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.53 Low May 31

USDJPY continues to trade below 134.77, the Jan 6 high. The pullback and weak close on Friday, reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that recent gains have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a broader downtrend. The key support and trigger for a resumption of the trend is 129.52, Jan 3 low. Initial key short-term resistance is at 134.77.

EURJPY TECHS: Finds Resistance Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 144.53 76.4% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• PRICE: 141.73 @ 06:47 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 141.10/139.97 Low Jan 10 / 5
• SUP 2: 139.34 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 137.03 Low Aug 29

EURJPY is trading lower today and the cross has found resistance just above the 50-day EMA, at 142.56. This leaves key resistance at 142.94, the Dec 28 high, intact for now. The recent recovery appears to be a correction. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 137.39, the Jan 3 low, where a break would resume the 2-month downtrend and open 137.03, the Aug 29 low. For bulls, clearance of 142.94 would signal a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 0.7059 2.236 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7009 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• PRICE: 0.6893 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 0.6860 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.6797 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.6650 Low Dec 22

AUDUSD is consolidating but holding on to its recent gains. A bullish theme remains intact. The pair has cleared 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and this confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. The focus is on 0.6976, a Fibonacci projection. Key support lies at 0.6688, the Jan 3 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3521 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3441 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.3357 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

The short-term outlook in USDCAD is bearish. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below a key support at the 1.3385 level - the Dec 5 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3317, the Nov 24 / 25 low. The bear trigger lies at 1.3226, Nov 15 low. On the upside, key resistance is far-off at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3521, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Fresh Short-Term Trend High

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 138.97 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 138.62 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 137.98 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 137.87 @ 05:13 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 136.04/135.74 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 2: 135.08 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.79 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 132.60 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger

Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and yesterday’s climb reinforces current conditions. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 138.62 next, the Dec 16 high ahead of 138.97, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the downside, initial firm support is at 136.04, the Jan 10 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Heading North

• RES 4: 118.427 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.895 50.0% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 117.800 Intraday high
• PRICE: 117.750 @ 05:17 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 116.950/740 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 2: 116.540 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 116.030 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 115.640 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher Wednesday, reinforcing bullish conditions. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this break strengthens the current bull cycle, signalling potential for an extension higher near-term. Attention is on 117.895 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.950, the Jan 10 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Pierces The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 106.118 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.939 38.2% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.860 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 105.810 @ 05:31 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 105.625/560 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 2: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.345 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.270 2.764 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a positive short-term tone and the contract is trading at its recent highs. 105.808 marks a firm resistance, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced and a clear break would strengthen short-term bullish conditions. This would open 105.939, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a firm support to watch lies at s 105.625, the Jan 10 low. A break would signal a reversal.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bullish Short-Term Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 105.20 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 104.31 High Dec 16
• RES 2: 104.05 61.8% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg
• RES 1: 103.98 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 103.68 @ Close Jan 11
• SUP 1: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 2: 99.97 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 99.18 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)

Gilt futures resumed their uptrend Wednesday and cleared initial resistance at 102.78, the Jan 6 high. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention turns to 104.05, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. A break of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 105.20, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firmer support has been defined at 101.40, the Oct 10 low.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 117.12 High Dec 14
• RES 3: 116.46 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Dec 30 bear leg
• RES 2: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 115.24 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 114.90 @ Close Jan 11
• SUP 1: 112.81 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 111.59/110.77 Low Jan 6 / Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 109.29 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 108.36 Low Dec 30 low and bear trigger

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Thursday. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and yesterday’s rally resulted in a break of the 114.00 handle. This paves the way for a climb towards 116.00next. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 111.59, the Jan 6 low. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 108.36, the Dec 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 2: 4175.50 High Feb 16 (cont)
• RES 1: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• PRICE: 4120.00 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 3944.00/3860.90 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3697.00 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 3580.00 Low Nov 3

EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract traded higher yesterday. Futures have cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. The clear break represents a key short-term positive development and paves the way for gains towards 4175.50 next, the Feb 16 high (cont). Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reinforcing the current positive trend condition. Initial support lies at 3944.00.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Has Cleared The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4043.00 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 3990.25 @ 06:55 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 3891.50 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend

S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and the contract is holding on to this week’s gains. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA and this has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. Price is approaching the 4000.00 handle where a break would open 4043.00, the Dec 15 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 3788.50, the Dec 22 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would resume bearish activity.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Extends This Week’s Bounce

• RES 4: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $87.00 - High Jan 3 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $83.64 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $82.70 @ 06:49 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $77.61 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded higher Wednesday and the contract is holding on to this week’s highs - for now. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $87.00, the Jan 3 high where a break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. The broader trend direction remains down and a reversal lower would instead highlight a resumption of the trend and this would expose the bear trigger at $75.64, the Dec 9 low.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $81.50 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $78.46 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $74.44 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $72.46 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.31 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Wednesday to extend the recent recovery. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of resistance at $81.50, the Jan 3 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The broader trend outlook appears bearish. A reversal lower would expose the bear trigger that has been defined at $70.31, the Dec 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: $1934.4 - High Apr 25, 2022
• RES 3: $1919.9 - High Apr 29, 2022
• RES 2: $1909.8 - High May 5, 2022
• RES 1: $1896.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $1875.7 @ 07:14 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 3: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15
• SUP 4: $1765.9 - Low Dec 5

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal continues to trade higher, extending the current uptrend. This week’s move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the current uptrend. The focus is on $1896.5, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at $1825.2, Jan 5 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signal Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.658 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $22.514 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver is consolidating. The trend condition remains bullish despite the recent pullback. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and fresh trend highs in December reinforce the bullish theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.