MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Bulls Remain in Driving Seat

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Bulls Remain in Driving Seat

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and this week’s extension reinforces this theme. The break of 5257.25, Mar 8 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded above its recent high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and this has also resulted in a break of the 5000.00 handle.
• GBPUSD traded higher yesterday, extending the bounce from Tuesday’s low. The recent move down from 1.2894, Mar 8 high, appears to be a correction, and the bull trend remains intact. The pair has found support just below the 50-day EMA. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Price has breached key S/T resistance at 150.89, the Feb 13 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 151.91 and 151.95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. AUDUSD is trading higher today as the pair extends the recovery from Tuesday’s low. A continuation would signal scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development and signal scope for a climb towards 0.6708.
• The trend condition in Gold is bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The earlier rally today delivered another all-time high and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. WTI futures traded higher Tuesday and a bull theme remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $79.87, Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year.
• Bund futures are consolidating and remain closer to their recent lows. A resumption of the recent sell-off would expose key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode position, however, the recent move lower does suggest scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of the latest sell-off would open 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 96.83, Feb 29 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Recovers From Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0955 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 1.0935 @ 05:29 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.0879/35 20-day EMA / Low Mar 19 and key support
• SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

A bull theme in EURUSD remains intact and yesterday’s gains are a positive development. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 1.0981, the Mar 8 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Feb 14. Key short-term has been defined at 1.0835, the Mar 19 low. A break would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Holds

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 3: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2823 High Mar 4
• PRICE: 1.2796 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.2690/68 50-day EMA / Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 1.2600 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD traded higher yesterday, extending the bounce from Tuesday’s low. The recent move down from 1.2894, Mar 8 high, appears to be a correction, and the bull trend remains intact. The pair has found support just below the 50-day EMA - at 1.2690 - and this average remains an important support. A break would expose 1.2600, the Mar 1 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.2894, the Mar 8 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8549 @ 06:33 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Mar 08
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The trend direction is down and moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position. Sights on key support at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend and signal scope for 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key resistance is at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. A breach of this level would highlight both a range break out and a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Sights Are On Major Resistance

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 1: 151.82 High Mar 20
• PRICE: 151.07 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 149.27/148.61 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Price has breached key S/T resistance at 150.89, the Feb 13 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 151.91 and 151.95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend and open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 149.27, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 167.45 1.382 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 2: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 165.41 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 165.10 @ 066:50 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 163.72/162.39 High Feb 26 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 161.28 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 3: 160.22 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 159.47 Low Feb 8

The EURJPY remains firmly intact following this week’s move higher. The cross has cleared key resistance at 163.72, the Feb 26 high and more importantly traded through 164.30, the Nov 16 ‘23 high and the medium-term bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the long-term uptrend. The break higher opens 165.41, the top of a MA envelope, and the 166.00 handle further out. Initial firm support lies at 162.39, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Strong Rally

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6639 High Mar 12
• PRICE: 0.6633 @ 07:15 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 0.6570/6504 50-day EMA / Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD is trading higher today as the pair extends the recovery from Tuesday’s low. A continuation would signal scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development and signal scope for a climb towards 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a break of support at 0.6504, the Mar 19 low, would open 0.6478 instead, the Mar 5 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Support

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3614 High Mar 19 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3466 @ 07:52 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.1.3420 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD has pulled back from its highs earlier in the week. Price is back below the 50 day EMA and continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 1.3420, the Mar 8 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would open 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 3: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 2: 133.01/134.15 50-day EMA / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 132.54 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.02 @ 05:07 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 131.54 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures are consolidating and remain closer to their recent lows. A resumption of the recent sell-off would expose key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started late December last year. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 133.01, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be bullish.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 117.934 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.670 @ 05:51 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 117.340 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. A broader bearish cycle is intact and a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started early December last year. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high. A break would resume the recent corrective phase.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 106.315 High Feb 8
• RES 3: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 1: 105.743/106.010 20-day EMA / High Mar 8
• PRICE: 105.650 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 105.515 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback from the Mar 8 high, reinforces this theme. The move lower refocuses attention on key short-term support and the bear trigger at 105.490, the Feb 29 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in December last year. For bulls, a reversal higher would open 106.010, the Mar 8 high, where a break is required to resume a bullish corrective phase.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
• RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 99.35/100.37 High Mar 14 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 99.06 @ Close Mar 20
• SUP 1: 98.71/05 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode position, however, the recent move lower does suggest scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of the latest sell-off would open 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 96.83, Feb 29 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 100.37, the Mar 13 high. A breach of this level would reinstate the recent bull cycle.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.28 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 118.59 @ Close Mar 20
• SUP 1: 118.50/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 117.75 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures are consolidating and continue to trade below their recent highs. A short-term bullish theme remains intact following the recovery that started on Feb 22, however, a clear break of support at the 20-day EMA - at 118.50 - would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 117.75, the 50-day EMA and a key short-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 120.65, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Clears The 5000 Handle

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5018.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 5016.00 @ 06:08 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 4884.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4826.00 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 4771.00 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 4711.00 Low Feb 19

A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded above its recent high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and this has also resulted in a break of the 5000.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5074.7, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 4884.30, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Fresh Cycle Highs

• RES 4: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5370.81 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 1: 5309.71 3.0% Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 5308.75@ 05:51 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 5209.19 Bull channel base drawn from the Jan 17 low
• SUP 2: 5185.88 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5073.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 5018.00 Low Feb 21

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and this week’s extension reinforces this theme. The break of 5257.25, Mar 8 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5370.81, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 17 low. Initial firm support is at 5185.88, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Bulls remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $89.26 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 1: $87.70- High Mar 20
• PRICE: $86.39 @ 06:50 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $83.78 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.03 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $80.19 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.41 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play. Price has recently cleared resistance at $84.34, the Mar 1 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Dec 13. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position and this highlights a clear uptrend. Sights are on $88.31, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $83.78, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $84.87 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $83.87 - High Oct 20 ‘23
• RES 1: $83.12 - High Mar 19
• PRICE: $81.70 @ 07:09 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $79.08 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $77.32/75.50 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures traded higher Tuesday and a bull theme remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $79.87, Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $83.87 next, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. A break of this level would open $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high and a key resistance Support to watch is $79.08, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time High

• RES 4: $2282.6 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2220.9 - Intraday all-time high
• PRICE: $2204.5 @ 05:43 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $2127.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
• SUP 4: $2080.5 - 50-day EMA

The trend condition in Gold is bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The earlier rally today delivered another all-time high and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. This signals scope for a climb towards $2230.1, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term trend support has been defined at $2146.2, the Mar 18 low.

SILVER TECHS: Testing Resistance

• RES 4: $26.753 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 ‘22
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 1: $25.774 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $25.629 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $24.217 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.627 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

A bullish condition in Silver remains intact and this week’s move higher reinforces current conditions. Key resistance at $25.761, the Dec 4 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and expose key resistance at $26.135, the May 5 ‘23 high. A move through this level would highlight an important technical break. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $24.217, the 20-day EMA.