MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Finds Resistance

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Finds Resistance, Fades to Resume Downtrend

• The S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bullish. The contract traded higher last week and confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 22. A key resistance and a bull trigger at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high, has been pierced. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle continues to point north. Resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 4269.50, a Fibonacci projection.
• GBPUSD yesterday traded through 1.2000. The move lower reinforces the current short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Sights are on the 200-dma next at 1.1952. A move through this level would expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. USDJPY faded through the latter half of the Tuesday session, putting prices well off resistance at the 50-day EMA of 132.87. This average represents a key short-term level and a clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher and would expose 134.77. The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact, however, the sharp move lower late last week and Monday, highlights a correction that has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has pierced support at 0.6878, the 50-day EMA.
• Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, and the yellow metal remains in a corrective cycle. This follows the strong sell-off on Thursday and Friday last week and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1854.4. This average represents a key support and if breached, would strengthen a bearish case. A sharp sell-off last Friday in WTI futures reinforced bearish conditions. The move lower Monday resulted in a print below $72.74, the Jan 5 low and a key support. A clear break of it would strengthen the bearish theme and expose $70.56, Dec 9 low and a bear trigger.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday and remain at their recent lows. The contract has breached support at 136.38, the Jan 30 low and this strengthens the current bearish cycle. Gilt futures traded lower yesterday to extend the current bear leg. Initial firm support to watch lies at 104.04, Jan 30 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective, however, a break of 104.04 would highlight a short-term top and expose 103.86 initially, the 50-day EMA and a key support.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Doji Candle Highlights A Potential Base

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1, 2022
• RES 3: 1.1054 1.236 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• RES 2: 1.0940/1.1033 High Feb 3 / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.0807 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0736 @ 06:01 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 1.0669 Low Feb 7 and the 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

EURUSD traded lower Tuesday and the pair has tested support at the 50-day EMA - at 1.0669. This represents a key short-term level and the recent move down is considered corrective. Yesterday’s activity highlights a doji candle pattern - a potential bullish reversal signal. A recovery would refocus attention on 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would instead strengthen the recent bearish cycle.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2401/2448 High Feb 2 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2265 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.2134 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2051 @ 06:14 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 1.1951 200-dma
• SUP 2: 1.1891 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1800 Round number support

GBPUSD yesterday traded through 1.2000. The move lower reinforces the current short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Sights are on the 200-dma next at 1.1952. A move through this level would expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. A breach of the latter would highlight a potential trend reversal and a possible double top. Firm resistance is 1.2265, Friday’s high. Key resistance is 1.2448, Jan 23 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.9097 76.4% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.9023 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8979 High Feb 3
• PRICE: 0.8910 @ 06:39 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 0.8875/0.8852 Low Feb 2 / High Jan 25
• SUP 2: 0.8843 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8792 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger

EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish despite the Monday-Tuesday sell-off and the cross remains within range of its recent highs. Resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high, has been cleared. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early December and sights are on 0.8992, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. First key support to watch lies at 0.8843, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Finds Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 136.67 38.2% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 134.77 High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 134.54 Low Dec 14
• RES 1: 132.87/90 50-day EMA / High Feb 6
• PRICE: 131.18 @ 06:56 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 130.48 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 128.09/127.23 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support

USDJPY faded through the latter half of the Tuesday session, putting prices well off resistance at the 50-day EMA of 132.87. This average represents a key short-term level and a clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher and would expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high The broader trend direction remains down. Firm support to watch lies at 128.09, the Feb 2 low. The bear trigger is at 127.23, the Jan 16 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Retreats From Monday’s High

• RES 4: 145.83 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 144.53 76.4% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 142.99 High Feb 6
• PRICE: 140.90 @ 07:04 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 139.94/06 Low Feb 3 and a key support / Low Jan 20
• SUP 2: 138.56 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger

EURJPY has failed to hold on to its recent highs and yesterday faded further from the Monday high of 142.99. Price has moved below the 20-day EMA. Firmer support is expected at 139.94, the Feb 3 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 142.99. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started on Jan 3. For bears, a break of 139.94 would be bearish and expose key support at 137.39, the Jan 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Recent Weakness Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6983 @ 08:06 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 0.6856 Low Feb 6
• SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
• SUP 3: 0.6741 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact, however, the sharp move lower late last week and Monday, highlights a correction that has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has pierced support at 0.6878, the 50-day EMA. A clear break and close below the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The broader uptrend remains intact. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3475/3521 High Feb 6 / 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3380 @ 08:11 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 1.3312/3262 Low Feb 3 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD remains above its recent low of 1.3262 on Feb 2. A bearish trend condition remains intact despite the recent climb and short-term gains are most likely a correction. A resumption of weakness and a break of 1.3262, the Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for a move towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 142.59 0.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 137.83/139.86 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 136.29 @ 05:12 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 135.86 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 3: 135.08 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 134.52 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday and remain at their recent lows. The contract has breached support at 136.38, the Jan 30 low and this strengthens the current bearish cycle. The focus is on 135.71 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 137.83, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 117.777/118.670 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 117.430 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 117.020 @ 05:14 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 116.840 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 116.540 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 116.405 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 116.030 Low Jan 3

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher on Feb 2, however, price has since pulled back. Key short-term support at 117.020, the Jan 30 low, has been breached. The break of this support reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 116.405, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, the resistance to watch is at 117.777, the 50-day EMA. A break above this EMA would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Pierces Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.130/106.155 High Feb 2 / High Jan 18 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 106.004 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.890 High Feb 6
• PRICE: 105.675 @ 05:50 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 105.615 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 105.548 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 18 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 105.480 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and key support

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday and in the process pierced support at 105.640, the Feb1 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme and signal scope for weakness towards 105.548, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 106.130, the Feb 2 high and 106.155, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this resistance zone would reinstate a bullish condition.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 108.96 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 108.44 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 107.78/108.00 High Feb 2 / Round number resistance
• RES 1: 106.88 High Feb 6
• PRICE: 105.00 @ Close Feb 7
• SUP 1: 104.51 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 104.04 Low Jan 30 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 103.86 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 103.21 Low Jan 17

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday to extend the current bear leg. Initial firm support to watch lies at 104.04, Jan 30 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective, however, a break of 104.04 would highlight a short-term top and expose 103.86 initially, the 50-day EMA and a key support. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger that has been defined at 107.78, the Feb 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 121.26 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.56/96 High Jan 19 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 1: 116.19/118.18 High DFeb 6 / High Jan 27
• PRICE: 115.17 @ Close Feb 7
• SUP 1: 114.44/113.47 Low Feb 7 / Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 2: 112.26 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally

BTP futures traded sharply higher on Feb 2 and the contract breached resistance at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of firm resistance at 118.56, the Jan 19 high and 118.96, the Dec 7 high. Price has since pulled back - the move lower is considered corrective, for now. Key short-term support to watch lies at 113.47, the Jan 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 4335.50 High Jan 6 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4303.20 2.382 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• PRICE: 4256.00 @ 06:08 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 4152.40/4097.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4043.70 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 3: 3890.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle continues to point north. Resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 4269.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would represent a healthy correction. A break of 4097.00, the Jan 19 low, would signal the start of a short-term bear cycle.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 4361.00 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 1: 4208.50 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4122.75 @ 14:22 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 4048.39 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4007.50/3990.47 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support

The S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bullish. The contract traded higher last week and confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 22. A key resistance and a bull trigger at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of a broader uptrend and open 4250.00, the Aug 26 2022 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 4007.50, Jan 31 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J3) Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $90.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 bear leg
• RES 3: $89.00 - High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $86.21 - High Feb 1
• RES 1: $84.04/19 - 50-day EMA / Intraday high
• PRICE: $83.84 @ 07:01 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: $79.10 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 2: $77.77 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $75.89 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.48 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures have recovered from Monday’s low and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The bounce is - for now - considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off undermines a recent bull theme and a continuation lower would open $77.77, the Jan 5 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $84.04, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would ease bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 3: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $80.49/82.66 - High Jan 30 / High Jan 18
• RES 1: $78.34 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $77.19 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: $72.25 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

A sharp sell-off last Friday in WTI futures reinforced bearish conditions. The move lower Monday resulted in a print below $72.74, the Jan 5 low and a key support. A clear break of it would strengthen the bearish theme and expose $70.56, Dec 9 low and a bear trigger. Prices have recovered this week but gains are considered corrective. Initial firm resistance to watch is at $78.34, the 50-day EMA. A break would ease bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1897.4/1959.7 - 20-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: $1854.4 @ 07:16 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: $1861.4 - Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: $1854.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28

Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, and the yellow metal remains in a corrective cycle. This follows the strong sell-off on Thursday and Friday last week and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1854.4. This average represents a key support and if breached, would strengthen a bearish case and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at $1959.7, the Feb 2 high.

SILVER TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.324 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.443 @ 08:14 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: $21.934 - 38.2% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 2: $21.099 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

A sharp sell-off in Silver last Friday resulted in a break of $22.557, Dec 16 low. Price has also traded below the 50-day EMA - a bearish development. The break lower highlights a range breakout and if this is correct, it warns of a short-term trend reversal. A continuation lower would open $21.934 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $23.324, the 20-day EMA ahead of $24.637, the Feb 2 high.