MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Hits New Heights

Price Signal Summary - USD/JPY Hits New Heights

• The S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bearish and price has again traded lower, delivering a fresh short-term low print today. The contract
• has recently cleared the 50-day EMA. This reinforces the bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish - the contract traded to a fresh short-term trend low on Monday. Price has cleared 3456.00, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally.
• EURUSD remains in a downtrend and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Tuesday of 0.9864. The break lower reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend as the pair trends down inside its bear channel. USDJPY continues to appreciate and extend Tuesday’s break above the 142.00 handle. This reinforces the current bullish theme following last week’s resumption of the primary uptrend - former resistance at 139.39 has been cleared, the Jul 14 high. A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The extension lower last week strengthened bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 11. The move lower this week reinforces the bearish theme.
• Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and last week’s extension reinforced bearish conditions. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and this has been reinforced today as price trades through key support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8.
• Bund futures traded lower yesterday and the contract remains in a bear mode - the fresh low print Tuesday marks a resumption of the downtrend. The contract continues to retrace the bull leg between Jun 16 - Aug 2. Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August remains intact as price trades to fresh trend lows. The breach last week of support at 108.94, Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Activity

• RES 4: 1.0268 High Aug 15
• RES 3: 1.0175 High Aug 18 and Channel top from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.0032 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.9898 @ 06:12 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 0.9864 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9637 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD remains in a downtrend and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Tuesday of 0.9864. The break lower reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend as the pair trends down inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 0.9800 handle next. Initial resistance is seen at 1.0032, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 1.1963 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1901 High Aug 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1762 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1624 High Sep 1
• PRICE: 1.1479 @ 06:18 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 1.1444/1412 Low Sep 5 / Low Mar 20 2020 and major support
• SUP 2: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1300 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.1248 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bearish and the pair has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact - the definition of a downtrend. Note that trend is oversold however this does not appear to be a concern for bears. The focus is on 1.1412 next, Mar 20 2020 low and a major support. Firm resistance is at 1.1762, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High Jun 15 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8679 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 0.8619 @ 06:34 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 0.8567 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 0.8531 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8500 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 23

EURGBP remains in an uptrend following last week’s gains and despite the latest corrective pullback. Attention is on 0.8679, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and expose the key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. A break of 0.8721 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started in early March. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8531, the Sep 6 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Rally Extension

• RES 4: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 145.28 2.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 2: 145.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 144.67 2.50 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• PRICE: 144.04 @ 05:56 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 142.71 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 140.25./139.87 Low Sep 6 / Low Sep 2
• SUP 3: 138.86/03 Low Sep 1 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.07 50-day EMA

USDJPY continues to appreciate and extend Tuesday’s break above the 142.00 handle. This reinforces the current bullish theme following last week’s resumption of the primary uptrend - former resistance at 139.39 has been cleared, the Jul 14 high. This week’s climb opens 144.67 next while further out, there is potential for a move towards 146.52. Both are Fibonacci projections. Initial firm trend support is at 138.03, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Impulsive Rally Extends

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 143.85 1.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 143.11 1.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 142.66 Intraday high
• PRICE: 142.53 @ 06:58 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 141.37/139.56 Intraday low / Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 138.69/27 Low Sep 5 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY continues to climb as the Yen remains offered. This week’s impulsive gains reinforce current bullish conditions and the move higher maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The cross has pierced resistance at 142.32, the Jul 21 high. A clear break would open 144.28, the Jun 28 high and the next major resistance. Firm trend support is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 138.44.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 0.7040 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 0.6926 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6833/6879 High Sep 6 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6728 @ 08:02 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 0.6699 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6612 Low May 29

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The extension lower last week strengthened bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 11. The move lower this week reinforces the bearish theme. Attention is on 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and a key support plus an important bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 0.7009, Aug 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3336 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3208 High Sep 1
• PRICE: 1.3186 @ 08:13 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 1.3075/1.3025 Low Sep 2 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2948 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2828 Low Aug 17

The USDCAD bull theme remains intact. Attention is on 1.3224, a key resistance and the Jul 14 high. A break would be viewed as an important bullish development and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895 where a break would alter the picture. First support lies at 1.3075, the Sep 2 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 149.81 High Aug 23
• RES 3: 148.97 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 148.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 146.90 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 144.41 @ 05:07 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 144.20 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 143.64 2.382 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 3: 143.12 2.50 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 142.60 2.61.8 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures traded lower yesterday and the contract remains in a bear mode - the fresh low print Tuesday marks a resumption of the downtrend. The contract continues to retrace the bull leg between Jun 16 - Aug 2 and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. The focus is on 143.64. Resistance is at 146.90, the Aug 30 high. A break of this level would highlight a possible short-term base.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 125.200 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 124.670 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 124.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 123.730 High Sep 6
• PRICE: 122.650 @ 05:09 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 122.230 Low Sep 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 122.022 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 120.990 Low Jun 21 (cont)
• SUP 4: 119.940 Low Jun 16 and key support (cont)

Bobl futures remain bearish and the latest bounce is considered corrective. Attention is on 122.230, the Sep 1 low and near-term bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle and continue the retracement of the mid-June to early August climb. Scope is seen for a move to 120.990 next, the Jun 21 low (cont). On the upside, initial resistance is at 123.650, the Sep 6 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 109.280 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 109.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 108.845 High Aug 25
• RES 1: 108.570 High Sep 6
• PRICE: 108.260 @ 05:12 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 108.115/107.925 Low Sep 5 / 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.821 0.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.687 0.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.470 1.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing

Schatz futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday. The contract remains above last week’s 107.925 low (Sep 1). The trend direction is down and short-term gains are considered corrective. A break of 107.925 would confirm a resumption of bearish activity and maintain the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 107.687, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 108.570, Tuesday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 112.43 High Aug 22
• RES 3: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 2: 109.47/110.85 High Aug 31 / 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 106..88/107.93 High Sep 6 / High Sep 1
• PRICE: 105.73 @ Close Sep 6
• SUP 1: 104.77 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 104.69 1.764 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 103.87 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August remains intact as price trades to fresh trend lows. The breach last week of support at 108.94, Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 104.69 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 107.93, the Sep 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 122.59 High Aug 19
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.47 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 117.25 @ Close Sep 6
• SUP 1: 116.37 Low Sep 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 111.62 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 5 price swing

Bearish conditions in BTP futures remain intact - last week's fresh lows reinforce the current bear cycle. Furthermore, a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact as the contract continues its retracement of the mid-June - early August rally. The focus is on the 115.00 handle next ahead of the major support at 113.78, Jun 14 low (cont). On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 119.47, Aug 30 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Through Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 119-18 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 118-15 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 117-29/118-00 20-day EMA / High Aug 26
• RES 1: 117-07+ High Aug 31
• PRICE: 115-19+ @ 16:09 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 115-14+ Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 114-26 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 114-06 Low Jun 14 and a key support
• SUP 4: 114-00 Round number support

The outlook for Treasuries worsened Tuesday, with prices showing below both 116-01+, 61.8% of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 rally as well as the bear trigger at 115-23. A clear break here supports the case for a move back to 114-06, Jun 14 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 118-00, Aug 26 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bearish Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3459.00/3617.2 High Sep 2 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3461.00@ 06:12 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 3429.00 Low Sep 5
• SUP 2: 3386.00 Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 3362.00 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish - the contract traded to a fresh short-term trend low on Monday. Price has cleared 3456.00, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and exposes the key support at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Clearance of 3343.00 would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial resistance is seen at 3549.00, Friday's high.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Heading South

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4288.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 4217.25 High Aug 26 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4061.33 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3899.50@ 07:01 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 3883.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3834.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3801.49 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 4: 3723.75 Low Jul 14

The S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bearish and price has again traded lower, delivering a fresh short-term low print today. The contract has recently cleared the 50-day EMA. This reinforces the bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower. Attention is on 3902.01, 61.8% of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg. The level has been pierced, a clear break would open 3834.00, the Jul 19 low. Initial firm resistance is at 4061.33, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Approaching Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: $110.17 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $103.86 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $96.99/97.81 - High Sep 5 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $91.40 @ 06:55 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $90.95 - Low Aug 17
• SUP 2: $89.06 - Low Jul 14 and the key bear trigger
• SUP 3: $87.50 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $86.54 - Low Mar 9

Brent futures remain vulnerable and the contract is trading lower this morning as it extends this week’s bear leg. Attention is on the next important support at $90.95, the Aug 17 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards $89.06, the Jul 14 low and a key bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a broader bear cycle. Initial resistance is at $96.99, Monday’s high.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Breaches Key Support

• RES 4: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $93.22/97.66 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• RES 1: $90.68 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $85.24 @ 07:09 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $84.10/00 - Low Mar 15 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $81.88 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 3: $79.83 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $78.54 - Low Feb 1

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and this has been reinforced today as price trades through key support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and also highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. Attention is on weakness towards $84.10 next, the Mar 15 low. Initial resistance is at $90.68, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 3: $1765.5 - High Aug 25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1735.5 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1726.7 - High Sep 6
• PRICE: $1697.4 @ 07:22 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 3: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5 2020
• SUP 4: $1657.1 - 0.764 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing

Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and last week’s extension reinforced bearish conditions. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend that started early March. Initial firm resistance is seen at $1735.5, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Trend Remains In Play

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $19.580 - 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: $18.850 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $18.053 @ 08:19 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

The Silver outlook remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 15 - the metal has cleared support at $18.146, the Jul 14 low and a bear trigger. The break lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $16.955 next, the Jun 15 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $18.850, the 20-day EMA.