MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Retains Bullish S/T Theme

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Retains Bullish S/T Theme

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and last week’s pullback appears to be a correction. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 4359.21. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, a bearish corrective cycle last week resulted in a correction. The contract has breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This level represented a key short-term support and the clear break signals scope for a deeper retracement.
• The primary uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact. Last week’s pullback appears to be a correction and the move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 1.2633, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY resumed its uptrend again Friday. The break higher retains the bullish technical short-term outlook, with 144.40 the next upside level, a Fibonacci projection point. Price has also added to gains on the recent breach of the top of a bull channel, at 141.75, drawn from the Jan 16 high. Last week’s pullback in AUDUSD resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break of the 50-day average, at 0.6703, suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 0.6627, a Fibonacci retracement point.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal traded lower last week. Trendline support has been breached - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and the break reinforces a bearish condition. Furthermore, the move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. WTI futures remain bearish and the sharp sell-off late last week reinforces this condition. Support at $67.21, May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures rallied sharply Friday and in the process, cleared resistance at 133.88, the Jun 12 high. This sharp reversal exposes key short-term resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high where a break is required to highlight a stronger bullish theme. A strong bounce in Gilt futures Friday resulted in a clear break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. This eases recent bearish pressure for now, and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.09591012 High Jun 23 / 22
• PRICE: 1.0902 @ 05:37 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 10842/.0804 50-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0667 Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

EURUSD traded sharply lower Friday, extending the pullback from last Thursday’s high of 1.1012. The move down is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on 1.0842, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback, opening 1.0804, the Jun 15 low and 1.0733, the Jun 12 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1012.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.3000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 1: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• PRICE: 1.2731 @ 05:48 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 1.2680 High May 10
• SUP 2: 1.2633/2523 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

The primary uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact. Last week’s pullback appears to be a correction and the move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 1.2633, the 20-day EMA. The recent break of 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger, strengthens a bullish condition and opens 1.2849 next, a Fibonacci projection. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8659 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 0.8563 @ 06:05 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8480 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023

The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and the pullback Friday confirms recent gains as corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA has been breached, however, price has remained below resistance at 0.8659, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. A break of 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 3: 144.40 1.382 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 144.24 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 143.87 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 143.39 @ 06:39 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 141.75 Former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 high
• SUP 2: 141.21 Low Jun 20
• SUP 3: 140.64/139.29 20-day EMA / Low Jun 14
• SUP 4: 138.43/45 50-day EMA / Low Jun 1

USDJPY resumed its uptrend again Friday. The break higher retains the bullish technical short-term outlook, with 144.40 the next upside level, a Fibonacci projection point. Price has also added to gains on the recent breach of the top of a bull channel, at 141.75, drawn from the Jan 16 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key short-term support is at 140.64 the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 157.84 2.236 proj of the Mar 20 - 31 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 157.53 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 156.93 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 156.40 @ 06:55 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 154.05 Low Jun 20 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 153.09 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 152.72 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 151.61 Low Jun 15

Dips in EURJPY were bought Friday and the cross continues to trade at its recent highs. This reinforces the current bullish theme following the latest impulsive rally. Price has recently cleared key resistance at 151.61, the May 2 high and an important bull trigger. The break confirmed a resumption of the longer-term uptrend and the focus is on 157.53 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key support is seen at 154.05, the Jun 20 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb - May downleg
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.0.6731/6806 20-day EMA / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 0.6676 @ 07:58 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 0.6663 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 0.6627 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 3: 0.6610 Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally

Last week’s pullback in AUDUSD resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break of the 50-day average, at 0.6703, suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 0.6627, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6806, the Jun 27 high. Clearance of this level would ease a bearish threat. Key resistance is 0.6900, Jun 16 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.3410 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3355 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.3311 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3270 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 1.3157 @ 08:02 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 1.3139 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 3: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022
• SUP 4: 1.2895 Low Aug 25

USDCAD is trading closer to last week’s lows and a downtrend remains intact. Fresh trend lows last week strengthens bearish conditions and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.2992, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3311, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.77/95 High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 134.68 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 134.17 @ 05:13 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 133.64/132.47 20-day EMA / Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures rallied sharply Friday and in the process, cleared resistance at 133.88, the Jun 12 high. This sharp reversal exposes key short-term resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high where a break is required to highlight a stronger bullish theme. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is 132.12, the May 26 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent bearish cycle.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Strong Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.410 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 116.080 @ 05:22 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 115.320 Low Jun 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher Friday, piercing briefly, resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 116.240. The outlook remains bearish following recent fresh cycle lows that maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead strengthen a bullish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 105.550 High Jun 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 105.257 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.125/185 High Jun 23 / 15
• PRICE: 105.025 @ 05:31 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 104.804 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 2: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.597 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend despite Friday’s strong bounce. Last week’s fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This extends the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.804 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 105.125, Friday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 97.43 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 97.00 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 96.07 @ Close Jun 23
• SUP 1: 95.32/93.88 Low Jun 23 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

A strong bounce in Gilt futures Friday resulted in a clear break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. This eases recent bearish pressure for now, and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish - a reversal lower and a break of 93.88, the Jun 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Breaches The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.37 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 116.95 @ Close Jun 23
• SUP 1: 115.61/114.61 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high on Friday. Price has traded through resistance at 117.16, the Jun 16 high and a short-term bull trigger. This reinforces a bullish condition and signals scope for a climb towards the 118.00 handle next. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 116.11, the Jun 15 low. A break would highlight a top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4487.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4392.00/4438.00 High Jun 20 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4301.00 @ 05:57 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 4275.00 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 4241.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, a bearish corrective cycle last week resulted in a correction. The contract has breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This level represented a key short-term support and the clear break signals scope for a deeper retracement, exposing 4241.00, the May 31 low and an important medium-term support point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4438.00, the Jun 16 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Latest Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4506.23 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4493.75 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4395.25 @ 07:12 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: 4381.75/4359.21 Low Jun 13 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4274.27 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and last week’s pullback appears to be a correction. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 4359.21. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A break would open 4506.23 the top of a bull channel.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $77.24/78.73 - High Jun 21 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $74.17 @ 06:57 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low Jun 20 / Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded sharply lower late last week. A bear threat remains present and the contract continues to trade below $78.73, the Jun 5 high. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.72/75.70 - High Jun 21 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $69.48 @ 07:07 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain bearish and the sharp sell-off late last week reinforces this condition. Support at $67.21, May 31 low, has recently been pierced, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1948.8/85.3 - 20-day EMA / High May 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1926.4 @ 07:13 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: $1910.3 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and the yellow metal traded lower last week. Trendline support has been breached - the line is drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low and the break reinforces a bearish condition. Furthermore, the move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is at $1948.8, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.451/24.530 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $22.696 @ 07:40 BST Jun 26
• SUP 1: $22.111 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A sharp sell-off in Silver last week reinforces a bearish theme. The metal has cleared support at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger, to confirm resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for a move towards the $22.00 handle and $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance has been refined at $24.530, the Jun 12 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.