MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Slippage Exposes Firm Support

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Slippage Exposes Firm Support

• In the equity space, E-Mini S&P technical conditions remain bearish and the contract has traded lower today. The moving average set-up and the contracts recent inability to remain above the 50-day EMA - at 4528.69 - suggest the broader path of least resistance remains down. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded to a fresh 2022 low, breaching former support at 3990.50, the Jan 24 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader bear cycle that started on Nov 18 last year.
• In FX, EURUSD failed to hold onto yesterday’s high. Despite trading lower, the pair continues to trade above 1.1280, the Feb 14 low. A bullish theme dominates while this support holds and attention is on resistance at the Feb 16 high of 1.1396. GBPUSD maintains a bullish short-term tone. A resumption of gains would open 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. Support to watch lies at 1.3487, Feb 15 low. USDJPY has traded lower today and below the 50-day EMA at 114.74. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback with the next firm support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in an uptrend, with the metal trading higher once again today to maintain the current strong impulsive bull rally. Price is approaching the medium-term upside target of $1916.6, the Jun 1 2021 high and a key bull trigger. Recent WTI futures dips appear corrective in nature and the broader outlook is still bullish. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures have traded higher once again, extending the recovery from the recent 164.34 low on Feb 16. Short-term gains are still deemed corrective, however, with the broader trend signals still pointing south. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains down. Currently though, the contract is in a corrective cycle and still trading closer to its recent highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.1692 High Oct 28, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 2: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1396/1.1495 High Feb 16 / High Feb 10
• PRICE: 1.1300 @ 06:12 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: 1.1265 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 1.1209 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Feb 10 rally
• SUP 4: 1.1121 Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger

EURUSD failed to hold onto yesterday’s high. Despite trading lower, the pair continues to trade above 1.1280, the Feb 14 low. A bullish theme dominates while this support holds and attention is on resistance at the Feb 16 high of 1.1396. A break of this hurdle would improve the outlook for bulls and expose 1.1495, the Feb 10 high and bull trigger. Sub 1.1280 levels though would suggest scope for a deeper retracement of the Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg.

GBPUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 1.3687/49 200-dma / High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
• PRICE: 1.3594 @ 06:16 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 1.3555/3487 20-day EMA / Low Feb 15
• SUP 2: 1.3435 Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase

GBPUSD is unchanged and continues to trade near its recent highs. The outlook remains bullish - support at 1.3487 is intact and moving average studies continue to point north. The focus is on a test of 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high where a break would improve the bullish theme and expose 1.3749, the Jan 13 high and key resistance. On the downside, a move below 1.3487 would instead threaten the current bull theme and open 1.3358, Jan 27 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Eyeing Support

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 3: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 1: 0.8371/8403 20-day EMA / High Feb 16
• PRICE: 0.8316 @ 06:26 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 0.8285 Low Feb 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8238 0.764 proj of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 - 7 Price swing

EURGBP traded lower again Monday. The cross remains weaker and a continuation lower would leave the 0.8285 low from Feb 3 exposed. Clearance of this support would mark a 100% retracement of the recent recovery from the Feb 3 low. The cross remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs further highlighting a bearish threat. Initial resistance to watch is at 0.8403, the Feb 16 high. A break would ease bearish concerns.

USDJPY TECHS: Extends The Recent Pullback

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
• PRICE: 114.78 @ 06:37 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 114.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY has traded lower today and below the 50-day EMA at 114.74. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback with the next firm support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low. For bulls, a resumption of strength would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight a continuation of the medium-term uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Finds Support At The 76.4% Retracement

• RES 4: 134.32 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 133.48/96 High Oct 20 and key resistance / 2.0% 10-dma env
• RES 2: 133.15 High Feb 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: 130.90/131.91 High Feb 21 / High Feb 16
• PRICE: 129.72 @ 06:51 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 129.41/36 76.4% of the Jan 25 - Feb 10 rally / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.19 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 127.52 Low Dec 20

EURJPY has traded lower once again today but has, for now at least, found support at the 129.41 level, 76.4% of the Jan 25 - Feb 10 rally. An extension lower would leave the 129.00 handle exposed and open 128.25, the Jan 25 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would suggest the corrective pullback is over and a climb would refocus attention on resistance at 131.91, the Feb 16 high and the more important 133.15 hurdle, Feb 10 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7309 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 0.7249 High Feb 09
• PRICE: 0.7199 @ 06:56 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 0.7086/7052 Low Feb 14 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6884 0.764 proj of the Oct ‘21 - Dec ‘21 - Jan price swing

AUDUSD is consolidating and remains above support at 0.7086, the Feb 14 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.7249, the Feb 10 high where a break would open a more important resistance at 0.7314, the Jan 13 high. Clearance of 0.7314 would highlight a broader reversal. For bears, sub 0.7086 levels would instead signal potential for weakness towards the major support at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797 High Jan 28 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2753 @ 06:53 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 1.2636 Low Feb 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD is range bound. The pair remains above support at 1.2636, Feb 10 low. While this level holds, a positive outlook dominates following the recent recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low that resulted in a climb above the 50-day EMA and a move through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. The focus is on 1.2843, the 76.4% value. Sub 1.2636 levels would threaten the bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Trades Above The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 170.42 High Jan 27
• RES 3: 168.90 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 168.42 38.2% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg
• RES 1: 167.52 Trendline resistance drawn from the Dec 20 high
• PRICE: 166.86 @ 05:10 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 164.34 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 164.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 163.63 Low Mar, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 162.60 76.4% retrace of the Oct ‘18 - Sep ‘19 bull cycle (cont)

Bund futures have traded higher once again, extending the recovery from the recent 164.34 low on Feb 16. Short-term gains are still deemed corrective, however, with the broader trend signals still pointing south. A sequence of lower lows and lower highs and bearish moving average conditions clearly highlight a dominant downtrend. The focus is on the 164.00 handle next. The 20-day EMA has been probed. The next resistance is at 167.52, a trendline.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 132.680 High Jan 31
• RES 3: 132.249 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.060 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 131.680 Intraday high
• PRICE: 131.540 @ 05:13 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 130.510 Low Feb 15
• SUP 2: 130.080 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 130.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.460 High Dec 7, 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures remain in a corrective cycle - price has traded above 131.360, the Feb 1 high and the 20-day EMA at 131.389. The underlying trend remains bearish though as highlighted by the moving average set-up and a clear bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation higher would open 132.060, the Feb 3 high and 132.249, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 130.080 bear trigger.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 112.145 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 112.070 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 112.020 High Jan 31
• RES 1: 111.935 High Feb 18
• PRICE: 111.910 @ 05:11 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 111.545/420 Low Feb 15 / Low Feb 11
• SUP 2: 111.250/208 Low Feb 7 / 2.50 proj of Dec 20-Jan 19-24 swing
• SUP 3: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.140 Low Jun 11, 2015 (cont)

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains bearish however, the contract remains in a corrective cycle, since the recovery from 111.250, the Feb 7 low. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and is challenging the 50-day EMA. The latter average intersects at 111.886 and a clear break would signal scope for a stronger rally and open 112.145, Jan 24 high. A reversal lower would open 111.545 initially, the Feb 15 low.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Has Breached The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 123.71 High Jan 24
• RES 3: 122.64 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 122.40 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 121.71 High Feb 18
• PRICE: 121.34 @ Close Feb 21
• SUP 1: 119.32 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 119.28 2.382 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.21 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 119.06 2.500 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing

The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains down. Currently though, the contract is in a corrective cycle and still trading closer to its recent highs. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and this suggests potential for a climb towards the 122.00 handle and the 50-day EMA at 122.64. The EMA represents a key resistance point. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 119.32, the Feb 16 low and bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 144.10 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 142.55 High Feb 4
• RES 2: 141.32 20-Day EMA
• RES 1: 141.14 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 139.19 @ Close Feb 21
• SUP 1: 138.06 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 137.68 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain in a downtrend and last week’s gains are considered corrective. Recent selling pressure confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages point south too. The focus is on 137.64, the May 18 2020 low on the continuation contract. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at the Feb 9 high of 141.14.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Approaching This Years Low

• RES 4: 4739.50 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a near-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 4484.50 High Feb 16
• PRICE: 4274.75 @ 06:52 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 4250.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4212.75 Low Jan 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4186.57 23.6% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 major rally
• SUP 4: 4131.04 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P technical conditions remain bearish and the contract has traded lower today. The moving average set-up and the contracts recent inability to remain above the 50-day EMA - at 4528.69 - suggest the broader path of least resistance remains down. The focus is on this year’s low of 4212.75 on Jan 24. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. Until then, a bearish threat remains present.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Fresh YTD Lows

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 2: 4168.60/4250.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 3990.50 Low Jan 24 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 3907.00 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: 3874.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3844.00 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3727.00 Low Mar 25 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3709.60 1.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded to a fresh 2022 low, breaching former support at 3990.50, the Jan 24 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader bear cycle that started on Nov 18 last year. Futures have also traded below 3935.00, the Oct 6 2021 low and this opens 3895.00 next, the Jul 19 2021 low on the continuation chart. On the upside, 3990.50, the Jan 24 low offers initial resistance.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: $104.04 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $101.49 - 3.00 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $100.00 - Key psychological barrier
• RES 1: $98.94 - 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• PRICE: $97.61 @ 07:07 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: $91.48 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $90.12/87.72 - Low Feb 18 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: $86.19 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $84.22 - Low Jan 24 and a key support

Brent futures have resumed their uptrend and traded to a fresh cycle high, clearing former resistance at $96.78, the Feb 14 high. This also marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards $98.94, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $90.12, the Feb 18 low where a break is required to signal a possible top.

WTI TECHS: (H2) Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $100.78 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $100.00 - Key psychological barrier
• RES 2: $98.24 - 3.00 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $95.82 - High Feb 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $94.67 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: $88.41 - Feb 9 low and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $86.34 - Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: $84.17 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $81.90 - Low Jan 24

Recent WTI futures dips appear corrective in nature and the broader outlook is still bullish. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that corrections remain shallow and this both highlights and reinforces underlying bullish sentiment. The focus is on $98.24 next, a Fibonacci projection. $95.82, the Feb 14 high marks the bull trigger. Key short-term support is at $88.41, the Feb 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 2021
• RES 3: $1936.7 - Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low
• RES 2: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 2021 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1914.3 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1911.8 @ 07:24 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: $1879.6/53.9 - High Feb 15 / High Jan 25
• SUP 2: $1844.7 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $1808.4 - Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low

Gold remains in an uptrend, with the metal trading higher once again today to maintain the current strong impulsive bull rally. Price is approaching the medium-term upside target of $1916.6, the Jun 1 2021 high and a key bull trigger. Note that the top of the bull channel drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low intersects at $1936.7. On the downside, $1853.9, the January cycle high is seen as a firm support.

SILVER TECHS: Extends Gains

• RES 4: $25.406 - High Nov 16, 2021
• RES 3: $24.886 - High Nov 22
• RES 2: $24.700 - High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.309 - INtraday high
• PRICE: $24.154 @ 08:04 GMT Feb 22
• SUP 1: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $21.949 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 3: $21.427/423 - Low Dec 15 / Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver remains bullish and is trading higher this morning. The bullish follow through suggests scope for a continuation higher towards $24.700, the Jan 20 high and a key resistance. On the downside, key support lies at $22.008, the Feb 3 low. A break of this support would reinstate the recent bearish theme. This would instead open $21.949, the Jan 7 low. Initial firm support however lies at $22.863, Feb 11 low.