MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Still Subject to Short-Term Threats

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Remains Subject to Short-Term Bearish Threats

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp sell-off on Nov 26 Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 4567.25. This average has in the past proved to be a reliable support and represents a key pivot level. EUROSTOXX 50 futures stalled at the overnight high of 4153.00 and have resumed their downtrend, probing Friday’s low of 4032.00. The outlook remains bearish following the recent sell-off that resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA.
• In FX, trend conditions are unchanged in the USD and the uptrend remains firmly intact. EURUSD remains above last week’s low. Despite recent gains, the outlook remains bearish. Last week’s move strengthened bearish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. USDJPY short-term bearish threat remains in place. Friday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 113.59, Nov 19 low. This highlights a stronger short-term bearish threat, and the pair continues to challenge the 50-day EMA at 113.22.
• On the commodity front, Gold is still consolidating but remains vulnerable. The yellow metal sold off sharply early last week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. WTI futures remain vulnerable. Friday’s breach of support at $74.76, low Nov 22 and the subsequent sharp sell-off has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the current bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain above recent lows with key support at 170.06, the Nov 5 low remaining intact. With this support in place, recent dips have been considered corrective and the short-term uptrend remains intact. Gilt futures rallied late last week. The recovery removes recent bearish concerns and note, resistance at 125.96, Nov 22 high and the key short -term hurdle at 126.23, Nov 9 high have been breached.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.1755 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1594/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• RES 1: 1.1374 High Nov 18 and the 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1314 @ 06:09 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 1.1186/85 Low Nov 24 / Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 2: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 uptrend
• SUP 4: 1.0976 2.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD remains above last week’s low. Despite recent gains, the outlook remains bearish. Last week’s move strengthened bearish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average signals are pointing south too. The focus is on 1.1185 next, Jul 1 2020 low ahead of 1.1128, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1374, Nov 18 high and the 20-day EMA at 1.1383.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 1.3698 High Nov 4
• RES 2: 1.3514/3607 High Nov 18 and a key resistance / High Nov 9
• RES 1: 1.3447 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3310 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 1.3279 Low Nov 26
• SUP 2: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3188 Low Dec 21 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3165 38.2% Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 Upleg

GBPUSD is consolidating and remains in a relatively tight range. The trend condition remains bearish. Last week’s breach of 1.3353, Nov 12 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 1.3216 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is unchanged at 1.3514, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 0.8595 High Nov 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8574 High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.8544 76.4 retracement of the Nov 5 - 22 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8513 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - 22 sell-off
• PRICE: 0.8496 @ 06:19 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 0.8411/8381 Low Nov 26 / Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282/77 Low Feb 18, 2020 / Low Dec 13, 2019

EURGBP rallied Friday and has inched higher again today. The bounce is likely a correction though. Trend conditions remain bearish following the recent sharp sell-off and breach of 0.8403, Oct 26 low. The focus is on 0.8356 next, Feb 26, 2020 low. Resistance to watch is at 0.8513, a Fibonacci retracement level. A break would suggest scope for an even stronger recovery towards 0.8544 initially.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 116.87 High Jan 11, 2017
• RES 3: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 115.52 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 114.12 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.23 @ 06:23 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 112.73 Low Nov 9 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.32 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov rally
• SUP 4: 110.82 Low Oct 4

USDJPY short-term bearish threat remains in place. Friday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 113.59, Nov 19 low. This highlights a stronger short-term bearish threat and the pair continues to challenge the 50-day EMA at 113.22. This average represents an area of trend support and a clear break would strengthen a bearish case and expose 112.73, Nov 9 low. Key resistance has been defined at 115.52, the Nov 24 high and is the bull trigger.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 3: 130.29 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 129.60/129.99 High Nov 23 / High Nov 19
• RES 1: 128.67 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 128.02 @ 06:28 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 2: 127.04 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: 126.65 Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 125.82 1.236 proj of the Jun1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing

EURJPY resumed its downtrend Monday and remains vulnerable. A bearish theme dominates following the breach of former key support at 127.93, Sep 22 low. The break paves the way for weakness towards 127.04, Feb 15 low and note that MA studies also point south suggesting scope for a deeper sell-off further out. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 129.60, Nov 23 high where a break is required to ease current bearish pressure.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 3: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• RES 2: 0.7271/7274 Former channel base / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7198/7228 High Nov 26 / High Nov 24
• PRICE: 0.7112 @ 06:34 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 0.7093 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7049 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7028 Low Nov 3 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2 2020

AUDUSD remains soft and continues to trend lower. Last week’s price action resulted in a break of the base of its bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. Furthermore, support at 0.7170, Sep 29 low has been cleared, reinforcing bearish conditions. Today’s activity has resulted in a move through key support at 0.7106, Aug 20 low. This has exposed 0.7049 next, the Nov 4 2020 low. Initial resistance is 0.7198.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2896/2916 / High Sep 20 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2849 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 1.2803 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2787 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 1.2641 Low Nov 25
• SUP 2: 1.2600/2493 20-day EMA / Low Nov 16
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger

USDCAD maintains a bullish theme with the pair holding onto recent gains. Price has recently confirmed a break of 1.2753, 76.4% of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off as well as 1.2775, Sep 29 high. This strengthens the current bullish set-up and signals scope for a climb towards 1.2896 next, the Sep 20 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 1.2641, the Nov 25 low. A break is required to threaten the current trend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Eyeing Resistance

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.54 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 172.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 1: 172.57 High Nov 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 172.21 @ 05:12 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 171.14/170.31 Low Nov 26 / Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 170.06 Low Nov 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

Bund futures remain above recent lows with key support at 170.06, the Nov 5 low remaining intact. With this support in place, recent dips have been considered corrective and the short-term uptrend remains intact. The break on Nov 19 of the 171.95 - 61.8% of the Aug - Nov sell-off opens 172.95, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, sub 170.06 levels would alter the picture and highlight a bearish threat.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 136.14 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 135.700 High Nov 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 135.630 @ 05:19 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 135.015 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)

Bobl futures recovered from last week’s lows and have remained above 135.015, the 50-day EMA. A bullish theme dominates following the break on Nov 19 of 135.320, Nov 15 high. This confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and has opened 135.870 next, Sep 3 high. The break also signals scope for a climb towards 136.00 and beyond. Key short-term support is at 134.700, Nov 11 low. A break would reverse the direction.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Northbound

• RES 4: 112.656 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jun 2020 sell-off
• RES 3: 112.600 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 112.585 High Mar 17 2020 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.515 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 112.465 @ 05:23 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 112.347/112.281 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

The Schatz futures outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. The contract late last week probed resistance at 112.495, Nov 22 high. A clear breach would again confirm a resumption of the short-term uptrend and pave the way for gains towards 112.585 next, Mar 17 2020 high (cont). Moving average conditions remain in bull mode, reinforcing the positive theme. Initial firm support lies at 112.281, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 127.69 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 127.36 High Sep 7
• RES 2: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 126.56 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 126.13 @ Close GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 125.44 Low Nov 26 and gap high
• SUP 2: 124.94 High Nov 25 and gap low
• SUP 3: 124.48 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 124.17 Low Nov 24 and key support

Gilt futures rallied late last week. The recovery removes recent bearish concerns and note, resistance at 125.96, Nov 22 high and the key short -term hurdle at 126.23, Nov 9 high have been breached. The clear break strengthens the near-term outlook for bulls and opens the 127.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 124.17, Nov 24 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Remains Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 151.79/153.12 High Nov 29 / High Nov 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.40 @ Close GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 149.59 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 149.41 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 3: 148.54 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded lower in the first half of last week. The move down resulted in a break of support at 150.72, Nov 12 low that undermines the recent bull theme. A deeper sell-off would open 149.41, a Fibonacci retracement level and potentially lower. However, the contract has bounced off 149.59, Nov 24 low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 153.12, Nov 10 high. Initial resistance to watch is at 151.76, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Resumes Its Slide

• RES 4: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4304.50 Nov 24 high and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4168.00/4226.60 High Nov 29 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4135.00 @ 05:48 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 4004.00 Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: 3949.50 Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3882.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 4: 3844.00 Low May 13 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures stalled at the overnight high of 4153.00 and have resumed their downtrend, probing Friday’s low of 4032.00. The outlook remains bearish following the recent sell-off that resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of 4032.00 would open 4004.00 ahead of key support at the 3949.50 Oct 6 low. On the upside, a move above 4304.50, the Nov 24 high is required to ease bearish pressure.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4740.50/46.68 High Nov 22 / 1.618 of Jul 19-Aug 16-19 swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 4612.75 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 4577.25 Low Nov 26
• SUP 2: 4567.25/4543.75 50-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4472.00 High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp sell-off on Nov 26 Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 4567.25. This average has in the past proved to be a reliable support and represents a key pivot level. Any signs of base building around the EMA would represent a potential bullish development in line with the underlying uptrend. A clear break however would instead strengthen a bearish case.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $79.82/83.00 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 24
• RES 1: $74.56/77.58 - Intraday high / Low Nov 22
• PRICE: 71.87 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: $70.52 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $69.57 - Low Sep 9
• SUP 3: $68.62 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 4: $67.15 - Low Aug 24

Brent futures remain vulnerable and have this morning resumed their downtrend. The contract on Friday, cleared former support at $77.58, Nov 22 low to strengthen the current bearish condition and today’s weakness has reinforced this theme. The break lower also marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on $69.57 next, the Sep9 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $77.58.

WTI TECHS: (F2) Sentiment Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $83.30/83.83 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $79.23/80.68 - High Nov 24 / Low Nov 4 / High Nov 16
• RES 2: $76.81 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $72.93/74.76 - High Nov 29 / Low Nov 22
• PRICE: $67.83 @ 07:26 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: $67.06 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $66.21 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 3: $64.39 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $60.77 - Low Aug 23 and a key support

WTI futures remain vulnerable. Friday’s breach of support at $74.76, low Nov 22 and the subsequent sharp sell-off has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the current bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. $69.58, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Oct rally, has been cleared and this opens $66.21, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at $74.76.

GOLD TECHS: Trading In A Range

• RES 4: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 3: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $1877.2/85.4 High Nov 16 / Bull channel top4
• RES 1: $1815.6/49.1 - High Nov 26 / High Nov 22
• PRICE: $1791.5 @ 07:20 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: $1778.7 - Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: $1759.0 - Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1758.8 - Bull Channel base drawn from the Aug 9 low
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and a key support

Gold is still consolidating but remains vulnerable. The yellow metal sold off sharply early last week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has also traded below the 20- and the 50-day EMAs. The clear breach of these averages suggests scope for a deeper pullback and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1758.8. The channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low. Initial resistance is at $1815.6, the Nov 26 high.

SILVER TECHS: Key Support Cleared

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.406 - High Nov 16
• RES 1: $23.989 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.918 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: $22.756 - Low Nov 29
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver continues to trade lower. The metal has breached support at $23.020, Nov 23 low and recently cleared the 50-day EMA. The break suggests scope for a deeper short-term pullback with the focus on $22.213, the Oct 6 low. For bulls, a move above $25.406, Nov 16 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme and a resumption of the uptrend. Initial resistance is at $23.989.