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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Tops Key S/T Resistance

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Tops Key S/T Resistance

  • The E-mini S&P contract remains below 4634.50, last Thursday’s high. The pullback from this level highlights a possible short-term bearish signal. Price has found resistance at the top of a bull channel. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Monday and price has pierced the 4500.00 handle. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Last week’s break marked the end of a broad sideways move that started May 19 - a bullish development.
  • GBPUSD remains below last Thursday’s high of 1.2996. Last week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme. Support at 1.2798 the Jul 24 low, has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2745. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Yesterday’s gains resulted in the break of a key short-term resistance at 141.96, the Jul 21 high. This has confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jul 14 and opens 143.03. AUDUSD is trading lower today. A bearish theme remains intact and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMA and this signals scope for weakness.
  • Gold traded sharply lower last Thursday and a bearish threat remains present. The move down resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at $1952.0. A continuation lower would further threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact. The break above $77.15 last week, the Jul 13 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bull cycle and this has resulted in a break of key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13.
  • Bund futures remain vulnerable despite the recovery from last week’s low. Price has breached 132.23, 61.8% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 131.61, the 76.4% retracement. Gilt futures traded lower last week and in the process breached support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low. This highlights a bearish threat and note that the 20-day EMA, at 95.72, has also been breached. A continuation lower would open 94.58, the Jul 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
  • RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.1150/1229 High Jul 27 / 20
  • RES 1: 1.1046 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.0989 @ 05:48 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 1.0972/44 Trendline support from May 31 low / Low Jul 28
  • SUP 2: 1.0867 Low Jul 7
  • SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a test of support at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.0975, and a trendline support at 1.0972. The trendline is drawn from the May 31 low. A clear break of both levels would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.0867, the Jul 7 low. First key resistance is last Thursday’s 1.1150 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

  • RES 4: 1.3272 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
  • RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.3045 High Jul 19
  • RES 1: 1.2887/2996 High Jul 28 / 27 and a key resistance
  • PRICE: 1.2832 @ 06:02 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 1.2745 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.2729 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 8 low
  • SUP 3: 1.2674 Low Jul 6
  • SUP 4: 1.2591 Low Jun 29

GBPUSD remains below last Thursday’s high of 1.2996. Last week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme. Support at 1.2798 the Jul 24 low, has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2745. Note that the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low and a key support, lies at 1.2729 today. A clear break of the 1.2745-29 support zone would strengthen a bearish theme. First key resistance is at 1.2996.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

  • RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
  • RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
  • RES 2: 0.8685/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
  • RES 1: 0.8637 High Jul 25
  • PRICE: 0.8567 @ 06:23 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 0.8544 Low Jul 27
  • SUP 2: 0.8520 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
  • SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP is unchanged and is consolidating in a tight range. Recent bearish price action threatens the bull theme - the latest move lower resulted in a break of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. This has exposed 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8637, the Jul 25 high. For bulls, clearance of the 100-dma of 0.8685 and congestion resistance at 0.8719, the May 23 high, would reinstate an uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

  • RES 4: 145.07 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger
  • RES 3: 144.20 High Jul 7
  • RES 2: 143.22 76.4% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
  • RES 1: 143.03 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
  • PRICE: 142.78 @ 06:44 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 140.89/26 20- and 50-day EMA values
  • SUP 2: 138.07 Low Jul 28
  • SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
  • SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Yesterday’s gains resulted in the break of a key short-term resistance at 141.96, the Jul 21 high. This has confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jul 14 and opens 143.03, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 26 low. A break of this level would open 143.22, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support has been defined at 138.07, the Jul 28 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

  • RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
  • RES 3: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
  • RES 2: 158.05 High Jul 21 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 157.28 High Jul 31
  • PRICE: 157.01 @ 06:58 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 155.61 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 153.93 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
  • SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

EURJPY reversed sharply higher Friday from its 151.42 intraday low and yesterday, the cross started the week on a bullish note. The latest rally cancels a recent bearish threat and signals the end of a corrective cycle. A continuation higher would expose 158.05, the Jul 21 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 151.42.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

  • RES 4: 0.6847 High Jul 20
  • RES 3: 0.6821 High Jul 27
  • RES 2: 0.6737 High Jul 31
  • RES 1: 0.6735 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.6658 @ 07:59 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 0.6623 Low Jul 28 and a bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support
  • SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
  • SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

AUDUSD is trading lower today. A bearish theme remains intact and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMA and this signals scope for weakness towards the next key support at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. The bear trigger is 0.6623, the Jul 28 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6821, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Key Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
  • RES 3: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3282 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.3262 High Jul 31
  • PRICE: 1.3230 @ 08:05 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 1.3151/3093 Low Jul 31 / 14 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
  • SUP 3: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg

USDCAD traded lower Monday, fading any test of the 50-day EMA resistance and price remains inside a range. Moving average studies still highlight a dominant downtrend. Clearance of 1.3093 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. This would open 1.3084 and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3282, is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bear Threat Still Present

  • RES 4: 135.61 High Jun 2
  • RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
  • RES 2: 134.88 High Jul 19
  • RES 1: 133.34/134.01 50-day EMA / High Jul 24
  • PRICE: 132.88 @ 05:19 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 131.81 Low Jul 28
  • SUP 2: 131.61 76.4% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally
  • SUP 3: 130.99 Low Jul 12
  • SUP 4: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support

Bund futures remain vulnerable despite the recovery from last week’s low. Price has breached 132.23, 61.8% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 131.61, the 76.4% retracement. Further out, key support is at 130.60, the Jul 10 low. Initial firm resistance is at 134.01, the Jul 24 high. A break would be bullish.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
  • RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 116.200 High Jul 24 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 115.840 @ 05:22 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 115.333/320 61.8% of the Jul 6 - 19 rally / Low Jul 28
  • SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
  • SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
  • SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures traded through support at 115.540 last Friday, the Jul 21 / 26 low, before recovering. The break lower undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights a bearish threat. This has exposed 115.333, a Fibonacci retracement point and the next important support. It has been pierced and a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key near-term resistance is unchanged at 116.200, the Jul 24 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Still Trading Above Support

  • RES 4: 105.378 100-dma (cont)
  • RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
  • RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 1: 105.090 High Jul 24 / 27 / 28
  • PRICE: 105.045 @ 05:38 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 104.805 Low Jul 17
  • SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
  • SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures are consolidating. The short-term uptrend remains intact, for now, with immediate support at 104.805, the Jul 17 low, still intact. A resumption of gains and a breach of 105.185, the Jul 19 high, would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, a clear break of 104.805 would instead expose key support and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Recent Break Lower Highlights A Bearish Threat

  • RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar - Jul downleg (cont)
  • RES 2: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 96.81 High Jul 27
  • PRICE: 96.13 @ Close Jul 31
  • SUP 1: 95.11 Low Jul 28
  • SUP 2: 94.96 50.0% retracement of the Jul 7 - 19 rally
  • SUP 3: 94.58 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
  • SUP 4: 94.20 Low Jul 13

Gilt futures traded lower last week and in the process breached support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low. This highlights a bearish threat and note that the 20-day EMA, at 95.72, has also been breached. A continuation lower would open 94.58, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 97.84, the high on Jul 19. A break is required to resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance is at 96.81, the Jul 27 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Watching Support

  • RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
  • RES 2: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
  • PRICE: 116.00 @ Close Jul 31
  • SUP 1: 115.09 Low Jul 14 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 2: 114.26 Low Jul 13
  • SUP 3: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 112.48 Low May 29

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.48, the Jul 19 high. Short-term bullish conditions are intact - for now - and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. Attention is on the key hurdle at 117.60, the Jun 26 high. A resumption of gains and a break of this resistance would strengthen a bullish theme and open 118.18, the Feb 2 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 115.09, the Jul 14 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: 4546.00 1.00 proj of the Jul 7 - 13 - 26 price swing
  • RES 3: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
  • RES 2: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
  • RES 1: 4513.00 High Jul 31
  • PRICE: 4495.00 @ 06:33 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 4406.00 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 4369.10/4331.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and key support
  • SUP 3: 4282.00 Low Jul 11
  • SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Monday and price has pierced the 4500.00 handle. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Last week’s break marked the end of a broad sideways move that started May 19 - a bullish development. Attention is on 4515.50 next, the Nov / Dec 2007 high (cont). Key S/T support has been defined at 4331.00, the Jul 26 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Channel Resistance Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 4725.13 3.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 4670.25 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
  • RES 2: 4649.04 Bull channel top
  • RES 1: 4634.50 High Jul 27
  • PRICE: 4615.25 @ 06:55 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: 4541.71 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12
  • SUP 3: 4439.35 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 4402.44 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract remains below 4634.50, last Thursday’s high. The pullback from this level highlights a possible short-term bearish signal. Price has found resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel top is at 4649.04 today. An extension lower would expose the 20-day EMA - at 4541.71 and a break of it would strengthen bearish conditions. Clearance of the channel top is required to resume the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Bull Cycle Extends

  • RES 4: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
  • RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 2: $86.18 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: $85.60 - High Jan 27
  • PRICE: $85.14 @ 06:58 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: $80.65/78.10 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 18 and key support
  • SUP 2: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
  • SUP 3: $72.04 - Low Jun 28
  • SUP 4: $71.21 - Low My 31

Brent futures traded higher last week and have started this week on a firmer note. The contract has breached $84.79, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. This strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards $86.18, the Jan 23 high. On the downside, the first key support to watch lies at $80.15, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Breaches Key Resistance

  • RES 4: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
  • RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
  • RES 2: $83.59 - High Nov 7 2022
  • RES 1: $82.00 - High Jul 31
  • PRICE: $81.51 @ 07:06 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: $76.64/73.78 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17
  • SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
  • SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact. The break above $77.15 last week, the Jul 13 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bull cycle and this has resulted in a break of key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. This development strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $83.59, the Jul 11 2022 high. Initial key short-term support lies at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

  • RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
  • RES 3: $2004.2 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
  • RES 1: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: $1956.4 @ 07:21 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: $1942.7 - Low Jul 27
  • SUP 2: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
  • SUP 3: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold traded sharply lower last Thursday and a bearish threat remains present. The move down resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at $1952.0. A continuation lower would further threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. Clearance of this level would open key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. Key resistance has been defined at $1987.5, Jul 20 high. A break of this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Support Holds - For Now

  • RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
  • RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
  • RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20
  • PRICE: $23.540 @ 08:11 BST Aug 1
  • SUP 1: $24.044 - Low Jul 27
  • SUP 2: $23.952 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
  • SUP 4: $22.527 - Low Jul 6

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and recent weakness is considered corrective. However, support at $23.952, the 50-day EMA, appears exposed following the sell-off last Thursday. A clear break of the average would undermine a bullish outlook. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 23, and open $26.135, the May 5 high.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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