MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Uptrend Remains Intact

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Uptrend Remains Intact

• A sharp sell-off on Aug 24 in the E-mini S&P contract reinforces a bearish theme and signals the end of the Aug 18 - 24 corrective bounce. Short-term gains are considered corrective and attention is on support at 4350.00, the Aug 18 low and bear trigger. A bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact despite this week’s gains. Last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. The move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce between Aug 18 - 24.
• The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition, reflecting current positive market sentiment. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6492. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6583. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low.
• The outlook in Gold remains bearish, however, a short-term correction remains in play. The yellow metal has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at $1930.4. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger bear cycle and pave the way for a deeper retracement.
• A strong bounce in Bund futures last week resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The move higher threatens the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 133.45. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally last week suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains reinforcing a short-term bullish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Base Provides Support

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 1.0900 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0830 @ 05:35 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.0773/66 Channel base drawn from Mar 15 / Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support

The trend needle in EURUSD points south and the recovery from last Friday’s low is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s move down resulted in a test of 1.0773, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low. This level represents an important pivot point and a clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.0733, the Jun 12 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0900, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.2711 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2623 @ 05:52 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.2521 1.382 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5

GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low. The pair has also breached 1.2591, the Jun 29 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and the end of a recent consolidative phase. The focus is on 1.2521 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is unchanged at 1.2711, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8645 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8594/99 50-day EMA / High Aug 28
• PRICE: 0.8575 @ 06:06 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.8536/8493 Low Aug 24 / 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8468 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

EURGBP is holding onto its most recent gains and continues to trade above last week’s low of 0.8493. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8594. The average was pierced yesterday, a clear break would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and suggest scope for a stronger correction. Moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend, the bear trigger lies at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 3: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 146.93 High Nov 8 2022
• RES 1: 146.74 High Aug 28 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 146.52 @ 06:33 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 144.77 20 EMA
• SUP 2: 143.30 Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: 142.88 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.52 Low Aug 7

The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition, reflecting current positive market sentiment. The focus is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 144.77, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average is required to highlight a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Rising Trend

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.49 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 158.50 @ 06:48 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 156.87 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 156.19 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.11 Low Jul 31
• SUP 4: 154.50 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 22 rally

The current EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, was cleared recently. This confirmed a resumption of the M/T uptrend and sights are on 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. On the downside, support to watch the 50-day EMA, at 156.19.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6589 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6492 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6488 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 0.6445 @ 07:02 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6492. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6583. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, would pave the way for weakness towards 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a stronger short-term correction.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3730 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3640 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 1.3602 @ 08:00 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Aug 21
• SUP 2: 1.3478 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3398 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD is holding on to its recent gains and remains bullish. Last week’s gains reinforces the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.3655, the May 26 high. Note that a trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3730 and represents an objective further out. Support to watch is 1.3478, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a correction.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 134.88 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 133.92 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 132.23 @ 05:00 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 131.70/20 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

A strong bounce in Bund futures last week resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The move higher threatens the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 133.45, the Aug 8 high and the next key resistance. The contract has pulled back from its recent highs, initial firm support lies at 131.20, the Aug 23 low. A break of this level would be seen as a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.600 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.340 High Aug 8
• RES 1: 115.920/116.260 High Aug 25 / 24
• PRICE: 115.620 @ 05:11 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 115.360/210 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 114.960 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and a key support

Bobl futures rallied last week but have retraced from recent highs. The climb resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This highlights a stronger short-term correction and a resumption of gains would signal scope for 116.340, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and suggest gains are a correction. Support to watch lies at 115.210, Aug 23 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.255 High Aug 9
• RES 1: 105.230 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 104.990 @ 05:26 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 104.905/760 Low Aug 23 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures rallied last Wednesday resulting in a move above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and an extension would expose the next key resistance at 105.295, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend and this suggests recent gains are part of a corrective cycle. Support to watch lies at 104.905, the Aug 23 low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 97.27 76.4% retrace of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 2: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 1: 95.11 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 94.55 @ Close Aug 25
• SUP 1: 94.15 Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally last week suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains reinforcing a short-term bullish theme. An extension higher would open 95.82, the Aug 10 high (cont). Note that trend signals continue to highlight a downtrend. The bear trigger has been defined at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 116.12 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 114.73 @ Close Aug 28
• SUP 1: 114.11/112.95 Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.05 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - Jul 19 price swing

A strong rally in BTP futures last week resulted in a move above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. Note that Friday’s early gains resulted in a print above 116.02, the Aug 9 high. A clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension higher. The Aug 23 low of 114.11 marks the first key short-term support. A reversal and a break of this level would be a bearish development and expose 112.95, the Jul 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Watch Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4330.50/4420.00 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 4314.00 @ 05:40 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 4225.00/4187.00 Low Aug 24 / 18 and key support
• SUP 2: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4122.00 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 4098.10 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg

A bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact despite this week’s gains. Last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. The move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce between Aug 18 - 24. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 4187.00, the Aug 8 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Resistance to watch is 4330.50, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would signal a short-term reversal.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 4517.75 High Aug 15
• RES 1: 4510.13 Former bull channel base drawn from Mar 13
• PRICE: 4447 25 @ 07:13 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 4350.00 Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

A sharp sell-off on Aug 24 in the E-mini S&P contract reinforces a bearish theme and signals the end of the Aug 18 - 24 corrective bounce. Short-term gains are considered corrective and attention is on support at 4350.00, the Aug 18 low and bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle. Resistance to watch is 4556.73 - the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $85.86/88.10 - High Aug 21 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $84.34 @ 06:53 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $81.95 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Brent futures pierced support at $82.36 last week, Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note too that the 50-day EMA lies at $81.95 and represents an important support. The recovery from $81.94, Aug 23 low, is a positive development and resistance to watch is $85.86, Aug 21 high. A break would signal a resumption of bullish activity and open $88.10, the Aug 10 high.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Remains Above Last Week’s Lows

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.62 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.24 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 1: $81.75/84.16 - High Aug 21 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $79.98 @ 07:03 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $77.67 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $6972 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger bear cycle and pave the way for a deeper retracement. Note that a key support also lies at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $77.67. Initial resistance to watch is $81.75, a break would be a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1972.4 - High Jul 31
• RES 2: $1946.8 - High Aug 4
• RES 1: $1930.4 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1924.7 @ 07:17 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $1897.7/1884.9 - Low Aug 23 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

The outlook in Gold remains bearish, however, a short-term correction remains in play. The yellow metal has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at $1930.4. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle. For bears, moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $1884.9, the Aug 21 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.838 - High Jul 3
• RES 1: $24.550 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg
• PRICE: $24.283 @ 08:03 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $23.413 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: $22.667/227 - Low Aug 21 / 15
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg

Last week’s move higher in Silver highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. The metal has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $23.613. The break signals scope for a climb towards $24.550, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would open $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial support to watch is $23.413, the Aug 23 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.