MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Outlook Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary - USD Outlook Remains Bullish

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis trend conditions remain in a strong bull mode and price continues to climb. The recovery from 4279.25, Jul 8 low has resulted in a fresh all-time high once again. With the bullish cycle still dominating, attention is on 4400.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures recovered again yesterday extending the bounce from last week's low of 3951.50. The contract is approaching initial resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high where a break would neutralise recent bearish price signals and signal scope for a stronger recovery.
• In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish despite the Thursday/Friday recovery. EURUSD is consolidating. The outlook remains bearish despite recent gains. The recent move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. GBPUSD is holding onto recent gains. The outlook remains bearish though. Cable recently breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low and this confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. USDJPY traded lower last week but found support at 109.53, Jul 8 low. The recent bear leg is considered corrective. A bullish theme remains intact following the recent breach of 111.12, Jun 24 high and a previous bull trigger.
• On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and consolidating. The yellow metal maintains a firmer short-term tone though following the recent recovery from $1750.8, Jun 29 low. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1813.6 today. Brent futures have recovered from last week's lows. The short-term outlook remains bearish following the reversal lower on Jul 6. Key resistance is defined at $77.84, that day's high. WTI futures are likely to continue facing selling pressure near-term and recent gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week and reversal on Jul 6 resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA.
• Within FI, Bund futures are unchanged and consolidating. The contract traded higher last week, extending the rally that started Jun 22. Price has recently cleared key resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. Gilt futures are off recent highs but maintain a bullish tone. Recent gains have resulted in a clear break of a key short-term resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1988 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1895 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 1.1864 @ 05:50 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.1782 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD is consolidating. The outlook remains bearish despite recent gains. Last week the pair traded through 1.1808, Jul 2 low. The move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has also recently cleared 1.1795, the Apr 6 low exposing key support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1895, the July 6 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.4001 High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3946 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3895 @ 05:55 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD is holding onto recent gains. The outlook remains bearish though. Cable recently breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low and this confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The move lower signals scope for a test of 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high where a break would alter the picture. First resistance is at 1.3948.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Support

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8618/29 High Jul 8 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8541 @ 06:02 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8486 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP is trading at recent lows. Directional signals still point south and attention is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above the Jun 23 low. Clearance of this support area would strengthen a bearish case and expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. The cross last week probed resistance at 0.8616, the Jul 1 high. A clear break is required to neutralise the current bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Above Last Week's Low

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71/111.78 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 111.66 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 110.82 High Jul 7
• PRICE: 110.41 @ 06:09 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 109.53 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 109.19 Low Jun 7 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.34 Low May 7

USDJPY traded lower last week but found support at 109.53, Jul 8 low. The recent bear leg is considered corrective. A bullish theme remains intact following the recent breach of 111.12, Jun 24 high and a previous bull trigger. This reinforces the bull trend and the broader positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 111.66, high Jul 2. A deeper sell-off would expose support at 109.19.

EURJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 131.09/76 Intraday high / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.98 @ 06:27 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 129.63 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 129.35 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2020 - May 2021 rally
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY has recovered from recent lows. The outlook remains bearish following last week's move lower and break of support at 130.04, Jun 21 low. This reinforces the bearish importance of the Jun 17 breach of a bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. The focus is on 129.35 next, a Fibonacci retracement. MA studies are beginning to highlight a bearish condition, reinforcing current bearish conditions. 131.76 marks resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.7716 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 0.7617 High Jun 25, 50-day EMA and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.7534/99 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 0.7493 @ 06:34 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 0.7410 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 0.7369 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 3: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.7304 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing

AUDUSD attention is on key short-term support despite recent gains. Price recently found resistance at 0.7599, Jul 6 high. The outlook is bearish and the focus is on 0.7369, the bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. The recent move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies remain in bear mode. Initial resistance is at 0.7534.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 3: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2676 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2590 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.2460 @ 06:41 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.2423 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057 Low Jun 7

The USDCAD outlook remains bullish despite Friday's pullback. Gains last week resulted in a break of resistance at 1.2487, the Jun 21 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 1 and also establishes a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition too. The focus is on 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Firm trend support lies at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Consolidating

• RES 4: 175.88 1.236 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 175.26 High Feb 18 (cont)
• RES 2: 175.08 1.00 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 174.77/97 High Jul 8 / High Mar 3 (cont)
• PRICE: 174.02 @ 05:11 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 173.16 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 172.55 Low Jul 6 and the 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 4: 171.37 Low Jun 3

Bund futures are unchanged and consolidating. The contract traded higher last week, extending the rally that started Jun 22. Price has recently cleared key resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9 and established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 174.97 next, Mar 3 high (cont) and 175.08, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 173.16.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 134.912 1.618 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.835 1.50 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.710 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 134.500 @ 05:00 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 134.340 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 134.070 Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures are unchanged and maintain a bullish theme with the current uptrend looking set to extend. Futures last week confirmed a clear break of key short term resistance at 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. The break confirms a resumption of the recovery that started May 20 and sets the scene for an extension higher. This opens 134.758, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support lies at 134.340, Jul 7 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Price Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.250 High Mar 1 and 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.215 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 112.175 @ 05:21 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 112.161 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6
• SUP 3: 112.120 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28

Schatz futures traded higher last week and the recent short-term recovery from the 112.110 congestion lows remains intact signalling scope for a continuation higher. Resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high was probed last week, a clear break would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, clearance of 112.110 is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support is 112.140.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.30 2.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 129.99 High Feb 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 129.92 High Jul 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 128.94 @ Close Jul 12
• SUP 1: 128.39 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 and key support

Gilt futures are off recent highs but maintain a bullish tone. Recent gains have resulted in a clear break of a key short-term resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. The break represents an important bullish development and signals a resumption of the uptrend that started May 13. Furthermore, the move higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 129.99, Feb 24 high (cont). Initial firm support is at 128.39.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 154.15 0.764 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 153.35 0.618 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 2: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 152.60 High Jul 13
• PRICE: 152.22 @ Close Jul 9
• SUP 1: 151.54 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 151.19 High Jul 1
• SUP 3: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support

BTPs are trading near recent highs and maintain a bullish theme. The rally last week resulted in breach of key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 and paves the way for a stronger short-term recovery. Attention is on 153.00 and 153.35, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at the Jul 6 low of 151.54. Key support is at 149.97, Jun 25 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4101.50 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 4091.50 @ 05:42 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 3951.50 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 3976.00 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures recovered again yesterday extending the bounce from last week's low of 3951.50. The contract is approaching initial resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high where a break would neutralise recent bearish price signals and signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 4121.00 initially. On the downside, a failure ahead of 4101.50 would expose 3951.50, Jul 8 low and the bear trigger.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Still Climbing

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4379.25 High Jul 12
• PRICE: 4372.75 @ 06:54 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 4279.25 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 4215.57/4126.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis trend conditions remain in a strong bull mode and price continues to climb. The recovery from 4279.25, Jul 8 low has resulted in a fresh all-time high once again. With the bullish cycle still dominating, attention is on 4400.00 next. On the downside, the contract needs to trade below 4279.25 to signal a potential top. This would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $75.99 - High Jul 7
• PRICE: $75.33 @ 06:51 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $72.11 - Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: $71.24 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.40 - Low May 25

Brent futures have recovered from last week's lows. The short-term outlook remains bearish following the reversal lower on Jul 6. Key resistance is defined at $77.84, that day's high. The contract has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the breach of this average opens $71.24, Jun 17 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84 is required to confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $76.98 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $74.93 - High Jul 12
• PRICE: $74.26 @ 06:57 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $72.62/ 70.76 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: $69.54 - Low Jun 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.41 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $67.59 - Low Jun 2

WTI futures are likely to continue facing selling pressure near-term and recent gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week and reversal on Jul 6 resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. The breach of the EMA opens $69.54, Jun 17 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84, the Jul 6 high would instead confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Still Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1833.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1813.6/18.5 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 8
• PRICE: $1809.6 @ 07:15 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold is unchanged and consolidating. The yellow metal maintains a firmer short-term tone though following the recent recovery from $1750.8, Jun 29 low. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1813.6 today. The EMA represents a key resistance area and a clear break would suggest scope for stronger gains. This would open $1833.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A failure at the 50-day EMA would be bearish and suggest scope for a return to $1750.8.

SILVER TECHS: Focus Is On Support

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.266 @ 07:20 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $25.529 - Low Jun 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains in a range. The metal recently breached resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. The break neutralises a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. If the metal is able to resume its climb, this would open $27.245, Jun 17 high. Thus far, price has failed to hold onto recent gains and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.